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May 9, 2018 at 7:05 am #1202543960
Brantley seriously thinks Lane is losing?!
THE OSCAR 100 (#80-76): Dustin Hoffman, Bette Davis, Meryl Streep, Fredric March and Elizabeth TaylorMay 9, 2018 at 7:32 am #1202543978
Brantley seriously thinks Lane is losing?!
THE OSCAR 100 (#80-76): Dustin Hoffman, Bette Davis, Meryl Streep, Fredric March and Elizabeth Taylor
Even better. He thinks Michael Cera is beating him.May 9, 2018 at 7:35 am #1202543979
Ben Brantley also thought Mary Beth Peil was going to win for Anastasia last yearMay 9, 2018 at 8:40 am #1202544019
I think Brantley is a little overenthusiastic for Carousel. I think Ashley Park has a very strong shot for a few reasons-two actresses are nominated from Carousel first of all (and FWIW, Fleming is very, very famous-people who don’t know opera know who she is; Mendez did not get particularly strong reviews, either); another reason is that Park is in a huge hit show. They’re going to want to give Mean Girls an award in the acting categories I think and this might be their best shot. In my heart I want Ithmar Moses to win book for the outstanding book for The Band’s Visit…but Tina Fey is very, very famous and will probably steal the award. (This is the only category where I think there is a clear ‘Should Win’. The book for The Band’s Visit is absolutely deserving.)
Neither Brantley nor Green is 100% right (Green is closer, IMO). Brantley is way out there this year.
My Predictions* (Subject to change):
Musical: The Band’s Visit
Director/Musical: David Cromer (look out for Michael Arden)
Actor/Musical: Ethan Slater (Look out for Joshua Henry)
Actress/Musical: Katrina Lenk (Look out for Lauren Ambrose)
Featured Actress/Musical: Ashley Park (look out for the 2 ladies from Carousel)
Featured Actor/Musical: Gavin Lee, SpongeBob
Book/Musical: Tina Fey (look out for Ithmar Moses)
Score/Musical: David Yazbek
Set Design/Musical: SpongeBob (Look out for either My Fair Lady or Once on This Island)
Lighting Design/Musical: The Band’s Visit (This is my “out there” prediction-I remember the lighting design for this show…it’s not that often that I do! That said…this will probably change into SpongeBob or Once on This Island)
Costume Design/Musical: My Fair Lady
Orchestrations: The Band’s Visit (look out for Carousel and SpongeBob)
Sound Design: Once on This Island (look out for The Band’s Visit)
Best Play: Harry Potter
Best Actor/Play: Andrew Garfield
Best Actress/Play: Glenda Jackson
Best Director/Play: John Tiffany
Best Featured Actor/Play: NATHAN LANE (not Michael Cera or anyone else-Nathan Lane should have won for The Nance-it was a remarkable performance…to be followed up by this a couple years later. I was amazed at his performance. Give him the TONY.)
Best Featured Actress/Play: Denise Gough
Best Set Design/Play: Harry Potter
Best Lighting Design/Play: Harry Potter
Best Costume Design/Play: Harry Potter
Best Sound Design/Play: Harry Potter
Boom. There’s my predictions…which will probably change a bit.May 9, 2018 at 8:47 am #1202544025
Best book is not presented on the telecast typically (unless a name is going to win), so I guess we’ll know she won for “adapting” her screenplay if it’s on television. I’d rather they just award Ashley Park (who has a wonderful story about bullies which is better than Tina Fey getting up and mugging and saying she hates Trump which we already know). Ithmar Moses and David Yazbeck’s pairing for this work is incredible…two men from very different cultures and backgrounds-I’d rather hear them talk about tolerance, and how they crafted a piece of theater about that topic which we so need right now.May 9, 2018 at 8:52 am #1202544026
While yes, Lindsay Mendez is a possible winner for Carousel, the fact that her co-star, Renée Fleming, was nominated for Featured Actress in a Musical as well could potentially result in vote-splitting. Ashley Park was the only one from Mean Girls to have made it into that category. While I don’t know if it will be my final predictions yet, I could totally see Park pulling an upset on Tony night.
I’m with you. I think Fleming has a better shot than Mendez…she’s very famous (and if Fey can win for that alone because IMO Moses deserves it richly) and this is her musical debut. She has the most Grammy awards and nominations of any opera singer ever. That’s nothing to sneeze at. But I think the two ladies might cancel each other out and Park will win.May 9, 2018 at 8:54 am #1202544027
Tony voters aren’t going to vote for someone just because they’re famous. Just ask Tom Hanks and Bradley Cooper who both lost to much lesser known actors like Tracy Letts and Alex Sharp.May 9, 2018 at 9:27 am #1202544052
I went back and did the math a year or so ago. Having two or more nominees from the same show in a given category results in one of them winning significantly more than 50% of the time. So I don’t believe in the “cancelling out” effect with Tony voters. Rather, it indicates that there is general respect for a given production, which increases its chances of receiving votes in a given category. I personally will be very surprised if Mendez doesn’t win.
We also need to remember that the winners are made up of 800+ voters making independent decisions; this is not a group-think thing. There is no “they will want to give something to X”. Some voters will; some won’t.
I bet many of these votes are much closer than we could ever suspect, even when a winner seems obvious. You have to factor in voters who have relationships with people or producers (I don’t count producers as people, haha) involved with a given show and have a familiarity bias and other similar, intangible situations.May 9, 2018 at 9:41 am #1202544062
Very true that vote-splitting doesn’t always happen, it’s usually dependent on if there’s a clear standout. Examples of this includes…
Hinton Battle winning over Willy Falk in Miss Saigon
Nathan Lane winning over Matthew Broderick in The Producers
Idina Menzel winning over Kristin Chenoweth in Wicked
Frances Ruffelle winning over Judy Kuhn in Les Misérables
Though we’ve also seen cases where having multiple nominees from the same production in one category does result in vote-splitting like Judy Kuhn, Sydney Lucas, and Emily Skeggs all losing for Fun Home to Ruthie Ann Miles in The King & I.May 9, 2018 at 8:37 pm #1202544508
Ben Brantley and Jesse Green, the chief theater critics for The New York Times, make their Tony Award choices.
Tony Awards 2018: Who Will Win (and Who Should)
WHY OH WHY every year are they allowed to include Off-Broadway productions as snubs, when they’re not even eligible for awards consideration here?! It makes no sense!!!May 10, 2018 at 6:59 am #1202544714
Tony voters aren’t going to vote for someone just because they’re famous. Just ask Tom Hanks and Bradley Cooper who both lost to much lesser known actors like Tracy Letts and Alex Sharp.
The one I always go back to is the year you had Philip Seymour Hoffman, James Earl Jones, John Lithgow, and Frank Langella and at the time a nobody to Americans, James Corden won over all of them!May 10, 2018 at 10:06 am #1202544811
You have a point with vote splitting. I think it’s just that the featured actress in a musical category could be very close and it makes a difference. I think that’s a very real possibility this year in particular. Ashley Park will pull the upset I think.May 10, 2018 at 10:25 am #1202544818
I too have Park for the upset – consolation prize for Mean Girls.
THE OSCAR 100 (#80-76): Dustin Hoffman, Bette Davis, Meryl Streep, Fredric March and Elizabeth TaylorMay 10, 2018 at 11:53 am #1202544851
I think if Park wins it, it maybe to award Mean Girls, but I am still not convinced they are that desperate to award that show. If anything, maybe rewarding Park is a way to reward her for her performance in K-Pop and having fond memories of her performance as Tuptim in The King and I. Ruthie Ann Miles may have benefited from the vote splitting from the three Fun Home nominees, but I also think her performance making people look at Lady Thiang in a different light and loving The King and I generally, and a sizable amount of voters who saw and loved off-Broadway’s Here Lies Love and her performance in it may have had something to do with it as well.
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