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Perfromers outside the top five who you are predicting for Tony awards

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    For Best Actress in a Musical I think Samantha Barks will make it in for Pretty Woman, replacing Rebecca Naomi Jones for Oklahoma!

    For Best Actor in a musical I think Will Roland (Be More Chill) and maybe Derrick Baskin (Ain’t Too Proud) could oust Alex Brightman and Damon Daunno.

    Heidi Shreck is going to make it in instead of Annette Bening.

    Will Brill and George Salazar are likely nominees for Featured Actor in a Musical – replacing Corbin Bleu and Rob McClure

    Joan Allen, Dearbhla Molloy and Mercedes Reughl are being underestimated – not so convinced that Jayne Houdyshell, Tatiana Maslany and Latanya Richardson Jackson are such sure things.

    Things will become much clearer over the next 2 weeks. Any outside the top 5 performers who you believe are being underestimated?

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    The ones I’m currently predicting that are not in the top five are…

    Derrick Baskin and Reeve Carney for Lead Actor in a Musical

    Samantha Barks for Lead Actress in a Musical

    Nathan Lane and Jeremy Pope for Lead Actor in a Play

    Kristine Nielsen for Lead Actress in a Play

    Will Brill and George Salazar for Featured Actor in a Musical

    Angie Schworer and Sarah Stiles for Featured Actress in a Musical

    Bertie Carvel, Robin de Jesús, and Gideon Glick for Featured Actor in a Play

    Joan Allen, Mercedes Ruehl, and Julie White for Featured Actress in a Play

    In fact, to anyone looking for the two categories to place their super bets on, do so on the ones where you know the predicted lineup from the combined odds are just ridiculous.

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    Lindsayisagoddess
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    I currently have Reeve Carney for Best Leading Actor replacing Alex Brightman.

    I also have Caitlin Kinnunen replacing Beth Leavel. I can’t defend it, call it a wild instinct, but I’m going with it for now.

    Sarah Stiles instead of Stephanie Hsu for Featured Actress.

    Ephraim Sykes and Patrick Vaill replacing Michael McGrath and Rob McClure.

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    prognosticator
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    I currently have Reeve Carney for Best Leading Actor replacing Alex Brightman.

    I also have Caitlin Kinnunen replacing Beth Leavel. I can’t defend it, call it a wild instinct, but I’m going with it for now.

    Sarah Stiles instead of Stephanie Hsu for Featured Actress.

    Ephraim Sykes and Patrick Vaill replacing Michael McGrath and Rob McClure.

    I saw Beetlejuice…Brightman doesn’t deserve a nom. I have Reeve Carney in on the coattails of Hadestown which I expect to get really strong reviews. I have Sarah Stiles in featured actress. I didn’t care for Vaill but I’m in the minority on that. I think Leavel is getting in. She’s not winning but she’s getting a nod.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    While I don’t make my official predictions until after the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League and Drama Desk announce their nominations, I do have a feeling Ain’t Too Proud will do a lot better than most people are predicting. Its reviews are pretty decent for a jukebox musical, so I think, if there are only 4 slots for Best Musical, it could be nominated alongside Hadestown, The Prom and Tootsie.

    Also, I think Dominique Morisseau will get nominated for Best Book Of A Musical because she’s been a rising star in the Off-Broadway playwriting community for the last few years, and I think Tony voters may want to acknowledge what is essentially her Broadway debut.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  Alex Meyer.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  Alex Meyer.
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    Jeffrey Kare
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    ^Keep in mind that the nominating committee are the people who vote on nominations. Actual Tony voters are the ones who vote for the winners. I also have Ain’t Too Proud getting into Best Book of a Musical as a coattail nomination for the show itself.

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    Djoko
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    I’ve never looked at the top 5 on here until now and I’m not surprised at how many people have no idea about any of the shows. I can’t believe I don’t see Andre De Shields who is sure to be nominated.

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    prognosticator
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    ^Keep in mind that the nominating committee are the people who vote on nominations. Actual Tony voters are the ones who vote for the winners. I also have Ain’t Too Proud getting into Best Book of a Musical as a coattail nomination for the show itself.

    ^Keep in mind that the nominating committee are the people who vote on nominations. Actual Tony voters are the ones who vote for the winners. I also have Ain’t Too Proud getting into Best Book of a Musical as a coattail nomination for the show itself.

    I have Aint too Proud getting musical, book, actor, featured actor, choreography and direction nods (and sound and lighting design).

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    ^Which of the other men from Ain’t Too Proud do you have getting into Featured Actor?

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    prognosticator
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    ^Which of the other men from Ain’t Too Proud do you have getting into Featured Actor?

    I have leading (Baskin)
    And featured (Pope)

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    Lindsayisagoddess
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    I have leading (Baskin)
    And featured (Pope)

    I think Skyes is more likely than Pope. He was singled out more in reviews and a Pope might split his support with Choir Boy.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Is it still the case that there can be 5 nominees for Best Musical and Best Play? I am torn between Ain’t Too Proud and Be More Chill for Best Musical but maybe both will be nominated; I am torn between Hillary and Clinton and What The Constitution Means To Me for Best Play and again maybe both will be nominated…

    Last year I was surprised by how many nominations The Iceman Cometh got and I am wondering what show will over-perform this year?

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    prognosticator
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    Is it still the case that there can be 5 nominees for Best Musical and Best Play? I am torn between Ain’t Too Proud and Be More Chill for Best Musical but maybe both will be nominated; I am torn between Hillary and Clinton and What The Constitution Means To Me for Best Play and again maybe both will be nominated…

    Last year I was surprised by how many nominations The Iceman Cometh got and I am wondering what show will over-perform this year?

    There could be five for play and musical. It’s based on votes and how many separate the fourth and fifth place shows. I think it’s more likely in play that we’ll get five nominees. I think in musical it’ll be four. Also I think What the Constitution Means to Me will be given a special award because it’s not a traditional play. It’s more like a special event. And while she’s great Heidi Shreck is playing herself quite literally. So they might give them a special award. I don’t know if that would affect the number of nominees.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    ^John Leguizamo was nominated for Freak years ago and he was playing himself – has there been any ruling on Heidi Shreck’s eligibility?

    I think there will be support for both Ain’t Too proud and Be More Chill.

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    prognosticator
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    ^John Leguizamo was nominated for Freak years ago and he was playing himself – has there been any ruling on Heidi Shreck’s eligibility?

    I think there will be support for both Ain’t Too proud and Be More Chill.

    We don’t have any rulings for Shreck yet. And Ain’t too Proud got raves while Be More Chill did not. I think there’ll be four.

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