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Best Play
THE LEHMAN TRILOGY *
Clyde’s Place
The Minutes
Hangman
Skeleton CrewBest Musical
SIX *
Strange Loop
The Girl From the North Country
Paradise Square
Mrs. Doubtfire (maybe)-
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As of now, I’d say the only sure things for Best Musical nominations are Girl From the North Country, Six, and A Strange Loop. It’s likely gonna come down to the latter two for the win. Since that category will have nine contenders this year, that means it will automatically have five nomination slots. So what do I think will take the last two? The responses I’ve read for the out-of-town tryout for Paradise Square say the show has potential. So we’ll see how that fares in New York. As MJ is currently in previews, the responses I’ve read so far appear to be favorable. Mr. Saturday Night feels like a sight unseen to me at his point. Maybe Flying Over Sunset could sneak in if the nominating committee respects it enough for its originality even if they don’t necessarily 100% agree with the end results. Maybe Mrs. Doubtfire could sneak in as one of those types of contenders where enough nominators apparently enjoyed it more than the critics did or just there as filler. I think we can all agree that Diana has no shot at all.
If nominations were to be announced tomorrow, I think the Best Play nominees would be Clyde’s, Dana H., Is This a Room, The Lehman Trilogy (which I agree is currently the frontrunner), and Pass Over. Although Skeleton Crew, which just began previews at Manhattan Theatre Club, could be a contender. The Minutes received a pretty favorable response when it was originally in previews almost two years ago, so that’s a possibility.
For Best Revival of a Musical, Caroline, or Change and Company are currently the only two locks for nominations in that category. The latter I think is frontrunner right now. The responses I’ve read for The Music Man so far may have been good, but it’s really more around the good but not great range. Although it’s possible for the show to get better throughout previews. Following the first preview of his 1992 revival of Guys & Dolls, director Jerry Zaks managed to get that show in much better shape by opening night. As of now, Funny Girl is the only sight unseen of this year’s crop.
The only two sure things for Best Revival of a Play nominations right now are Lackawanna Blues and Trouble in Mind. The latter of which I think is currently the frontrunner.
When do you expect the Tonys to take place in 2022? Do you expect a date in mid-June or probably a later date, which for some reason makes more sense to me?
At this point, I’m expecting the Tonys to take place sometime in June as usual unless we hear otherwise. Though it is worth noting that the latest Broadway opening currently scheduled right now is Macbeth on April 28th. In normal years, the end of April would be the cut-off date Tony eligibility.
For Best Musical I’m going with Girl from the North Country, Paradise Square, Sing Street, Six, A Strange Loop. For Best Score: Flying Over Sunset, Mr. Saturday Night, Six, Skeleton Crew, A Strange Loop. BTW, do you think Best Score should be split into separate categories for musicals and straight plays?
If a Tony for Best Original Score of a Play were to exist, I imagine it would easily be presented off of the main telecast.
I don’t think they’ll ever split the category because I don’t think there are enough plays every year that could qualify to make the split justifiable.
The same could be said about new musical scores. There could be a season like 2017-18 where 7 new musicals opened on Broadway, but only four of them had at least 40% new material in their scores to qualify. Not to mention that of all the new musicals that opened in the 2009-10 Broadway season, only two of them (The Addams Family and Memphis) actually had original scores.
I’m sure that Diana, Mrs. Doubtfire and Flying Over Sunset are out of the Best Musical race. North Country, Six and Strange Loop will get nods, but what about MJ, Mr. Saturday Night or Paradise Square? I’m not sure if Sing Street will make it in time or Little Prince will qualify, but even without them we will have five slots.
MJ will be opening tomorrow night, so we’ll see how critics end up responding to it. Even though they’re obviously not members of the Tony nominating committee.
Even though Six has been a big critical and box office success, I don’t see anyone taking down A Strange Loop. It’s going to get raves unless they somehow screw up the transfer, which I don’t see happening. North Country will be the third nominee. The other two are up for grabs. I just don’t see MJ getting in with Michael Jackson’s past child molestation trials and the allegations in Leaving Neverland. I expect the final two slots to be between Sing Street, Paradise Square, and Mr. Saturday Night. I HATED Flying Over Sunset.
We haven’t heard anything about Sing Street in a while, so at the point, I wouldn’t count on it to open in time to compete at this year’s Tony Awards.
If Sing Street doesn’t open in time, the other two slots will be Mr. Saturday Night and Paradise Square. For Best Actress in a musical, I reckon Beanie Feldstein, Sharon D. Clarke and some of the members of Six will be up.
I think each of the Six ladies are probably going to cancel each other out for nominations. I can see Carmen Cusack being a possible nominee for Flying Over Sunset. Despite the polarizing reception to that musical, her performance was seen as one of the best things about it. Sutton Foster has been receiving glowing notices during previews for The Music Man. The responses I’ve read for the out-of-town tryout of Paradise Square have singled out Joaquina Kalukango’s performance. While people are divided over Katrina Lenk’s singing (especially with her rendition of ‘Being Alive’) in Company, she has still been commended for her acting. I can see her getting in as a coattail nomination for the production. Mare Winningham is a respected actress with a leading role in one of this year’s top tier Best Musical contenders, so I wouldn’t count her out. Of course, we also still need to see how Beanie Feldstein will do in Funny Girl.
I think each of the Six ladies are probably going to cancel each other out for nominations. I can see Carmen Cusack being a possible nominee for Flying Over Sunset. Despite the polarizing reception to that musical, her performance was seen as one of the best things about it. Sutton Foster has been receiving glowing notices during previews for The Music Man. The responses I’ve read for the out-of-town tryout of Paradise Square have singled out Joaquina Kalukango’s performance. While people are divided over Katrina Lenk’s singing (especially with her rendition of ‘Being Alive’) in Company, she has still been commended for her acting. I can see her getting in as a coattail nomination for the production. Mare Winningham is a respected actress with a leading role in one of this year’s top tier Best Musical contenders, so I wouldn’t count her out. Of course, we also still need to see how Beanie Feldstein will do in Funny Girl.
I don’t know how anyone could pick between any of the Six girls. They were all phenomenal to me and on the same level. Not one was better than the other. This is the one time I wish they didn’t get rid of their joint nomination rule. I mean if you can have an awards show with one nominee why can’t you change the rules?? Katrina Lenk, Mare Winningham, Sharon D. Clarke, and Sutton Foster I think will be nominated. It’s a matter of who will get the fifth slot.
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