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Tony/Drama Desk Predictions 2018

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  • NativeNYer
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    #1202237814

    I know I know… it\’s soooooo early that this is a foolish topic to post.  But what do you think will be the nominees/winners at the Tonys/Drama Desks?  I  actually have found the Drama Desks to be more compelling as of late because of the more varied categories and there always seems to be such heavy favorites in the Tonys, but not necessarily at the Drama Desks.

    Looking forward to reading thoughts.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202237960

    As of now, this is shaping up to be a pretty slow year for musicals. There are currently six new musicals set for this season along with three revivals.

    New Musicals:
    The Band’s Visit
    Escape to Margaritaville
    Frozen
    Mean Girls
    Prince of Broadway
    SpongeBob SquarPants

    Revivals:
    Carousel
    My Fair Lady
    Once on This Island

    The Band’s Visit already appears to be an early frontrunner for Best Musical based not only on the buzz it’s been building from previews, but also its acclaimed off-Broadway run last year. Since there’s currently only five other new musicals set for this season, they should feel lucky that they each have a good chance of getting nominated. Even Prince of Broadway could get in since we’ve seen revues of celebrated theatre artists’ work get recognized in past weak seasons (Jerome Robbins’ Broadway, Fosse).

    No one’s seen any of the upcoming revivals yet, so there’s currently no frontrunner in that area. Though Once on This Island is currently in rehearsal, so we shall see how that turns out. I will say that the revival I’m most looking forward to this season is My Fair Lady. Bartlett Sher really has such an amazing track record when it comes to reviving the classics with South Pacific and The King & I both winning Best Revival of a Musical in the years they competed, even his production of Fiddler on the Roof from two seasons ago I thought deserved more recognition during awards season than it received.

    While Carousel is one of my all-time favorite musicals, I am skeptical about this upcoming revival given that it’s being directed by Jack O’Brien. While I did really like his Sound of Music tour, his track record on Broadway has been very inconsistent within the past decade. He hasn’t delivered a critical darling since The Coast of Utopia back in 2007.

    Though when it comes to the Drama Desk Awards, The Band’s Visit won’t be eligible next year given that it already competed for its off-Broadway incarnation at this year’s ceremony. But overall, there will still be a lot more productions eligible given that they recognize off-Broadway as well.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202238294

    As for the plays, it’s interesting how a lot of new works are set for this season given that Harry Potter & the Cursed Child is coming in as the Best Play frontrunner based on its enormous success in London.

    At this point, the Lead Actor in a Play race could be competitive if it features nominees like Andrew Garfield, Tom Hollander, Joshua Jackson, Nathan Lane, Jamie Parker, Mark Rylance, and/or Denzel Washington. The opposite could be said for Lead Actor in a Musical given that there’s currently only five (official) contenders for that.

    Given how this is also a slow season for new musicals, we could see at least one play with music nominated for Best Original Score like Farinelli & the King or Harry Potter.

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    Marlon Gonzalez
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    #1202433513

    Ethan Slater In SpongeBob Squarepants Will win Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical. Period! He is the Ben Platt of 2018. What A Performance.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202433636

    We still have at least three more candidates to get through this season such as…

    Harry Hadden-Paton-My Fair Lady
    Joshua Henry-Carousel
    Paul Alexander Nolan-Escape to Margaritaville

    We especially haven’t seen what Hadden-Paton nor Henry have in store for us yet as they’ll both be taking on classic leading male roles in the musical theatre canon.

    Though given that this is currently a slow year for the category of Lead Actor in a Musical with only 5 candidates (or 6 if Isaac Powell ends up going Lead for Once on This Island), I guess Slater could benefit from being the one apple in a bag of oranges (or vice versa) since most of the other candidates are dealing with more serious material.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202441766

    A question I have is: if there are only 5 potential nominees for Best Actor in a Musical, do they nominate all of them or do they only nominate 4?

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202441771

    I remember in 2011, there were only six potential candidates for Lead Actress in a Musical. So that category only ended up having four nominees such as…

    Sutton Foster-Anything Goes (winner)
    Beth Leavel-Baby It’s You!
    Patina Miller-Sister Act
    Donna Murphy-The People in the Picture

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we see history repeat itself with Lead Actor in a Musical this year.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202441801

    ^I wonder which one would be left off the list? Perhaps one of those productions will be critically lambasted for all we know. The two locks are Tony Shalhoub and Ethan Slater.

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    Kyle Bailey
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    #1202450461

    After seeing both Spongebob and Once on This Island last week, I hope both will show up in many categories at he Tonys. My wish list:

    Spongebob:
    Musical
    Ethan Slater lead
    Gavin Lee featured
    Director
    Score
    Book
    Orchestrations
    Set
    Costumes
    Choreography (for Squidward’s number alone)
    Sound (What a great year to bring it back!)

    Lilli Cooper featured would be nice but not a must
    Danny Skinner featured if they can fit him in
    Jai’Len Christine Li Josey featured would be awesome but unlikely same with Wesley Taylor

    Once on This Island:
    Revival
    Hailey Kilgore actress
    Alex Newell featured
    Director
    Sound
    Orchestrations
    Lighting
    Choreography

    If it’s a slim year costumes/set would be cool too
    All the Gods would be nice too but Newell is the stand out.

    I saw someone above mention the possibility of Isaac Powell in lead and I could see that but I don’t think he’s in the show nearly enough to be considered a lead. He’s really great though I wouldn’t complain if he got in

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    Trisha McElhaugh
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    #1202459056

    SPONGEBOB IS THE BEST THING TO EVER GRACE THE LYRIC THEATER!!!!!!

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202502573

    Just for fun, here are my way too early predictions in some of the major categories:

    Best Musical
    THE BAND’S VISIT (winner)
    FROZEN
    MEAN GIRLS
    SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS

    Best Play
    THE CHILDREN
    FARINELLI & THE KING
    HARRY POTTER & THE CURSED CHILD (winner)
    JUNK
    METEOR SHOWER

    Best Revival of a Musical
    CAROUSEL
    MY FAIR LADY
    ONCE ON THIS ISLAND (winner)

    Best Revival of a Play
    ANGELS IN AMERICA (winner)
    CHILDREN OF A LESSER GOD
    THE ICEMAN COMETH
    THREE TALL WOMEN

    Best Director of a Musical
    MICHAEL ARDEN, Once On This Island
    DAVID CROMER, The Band’s Visit (winner)
    CASEY NICHOLAW, Mean Girl
    BARTLETT SHER, My Fair Lady

    Best Director of a Play
    MARIANNE ELLIOTT, Angels In America
    DOUG HUGHES, Junk
    JOE MANTELLO, Three Tall Women
    JOHN TIFFANY, Harry Potter & the Cursed Child (winner)
    GEORGE C WOLFE, The Iceman Cometh

    Best Actor in a Musical
    HARRY HADDON-PATTON, My Fair Lady (winner)
    JOSHUA HENRY, Carousel
    PAUL ANTHONY NOLAN, Escape to Margaritaville
    TONY SHALHOUB, The Band’s Visit
    ETHAN SLATER, SpongeBob SquarePants

    Best Actress in a Musical
    LAUREN AMBROSE, My Fair Lady
    LaCHANZE, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical
    KATRINA LENK, The Band’s Visit (winner)
    CASSIE LEVY, Frozen
    PATTI MURIN, Frozen

    Best Score
    THE BAND’S VISIT, David Yazbeck (winner)
    FROZEN, Robert Lopez and Kristin Anderson-Lopez
    HARRY POTTER & THE CURSED CHILD, Imogen Heap
    MEAN GIRLS, Jeff Richmond and Nell Benjamin

    Best Book
    THE BAND’S VISIT, Itamar Moses (winner)
    ESCAPE TO MARGARITAVILLE, Greg Garcia and Mike O’Malley
    FROZEN, Jennifer Lee
    MEAN GIRLS, Tina Fey

    Best Actress in a Play
    FRANCESCA ANNIS, The Children
    GLENDA JACKSON, Three Tall Women (winner)
    LAURIE METCALF, Three Tall Women
    CONDOLA RASHAD, Saint Joan
    LAUREN RIDLOFF, Children of a Lesser God

    Best Actor in a Play
    ANDREW GARFIELD, Angels In America
    TOM HOLLANDER, Travesties
    NATHAN LANE, Angels In America (winner)
    JAMIE PARKER, Harry Potter & the Cursed Child
    MARK RYLANCE, Farinelli & the King

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202502604

    Why have you left out SpongeBob SquarePants in most of your predictions? I’m expecting it receive more nominations than that.

    While I have mentioned my skepticisms about Carousel given director Jack O’Brien’s inconsistent track record as of late, I’m at least be happy that they’ll all be put to rest tonight no matter what happens during the first preview.

    Given the early reports for Escape to Margaritaville, I wouldn’t be surprised if that show gets completely shutout by the nominating committee. Though Paul Alexander Nolan could still make the cut for Lead Actor in a Musical given the lack of contenders in that category this year.

    From the early reports for Frozen, Patti Murin not only seems to have a shot at a Lead Actress in a Musical nomination, but she also seems to be more of a lead than Caissie Levy (I wonder if Disney will try to petition the latter into the Featured Actress category).

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jeffrey Kare.
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    adamunc
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    #1202502723

    Given the poisonous word of mouth for previews of Margaritaville and the terrible reviews for Summer in La Jolla, I can easily envision a world in which Spongebob Squarepants is nominated for Best Musical. I could also envision a world in which there are only three Best Musical nominees, since the committee has the authority to reduce the number of nominees down to as few as two if deemed appropriate.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202502748

    According to the rules, the number of nominees in each of the four “Best Show” categories shall be determined in the following manner:

    1. Where there are nine or more eligible productions in a Best Show
    category, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show is three votes or less.

    2. Where there are five or fewer eligible productions in a Best Show
    category, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for three eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The three eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fourth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the
    difference in votes between the third highest-ranked show and the
    fourth highest-ranked show is three votes or less.

    Since there are 7 shows eligible for Best Musical this year, it seems that there will only be four nominees this year.

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    adamunc
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    #1202502763

    The rules also say:

    The number of nominees in each of the four “Best Show”
    categories shall be determined as provided in paragraphs
    2(j)(ii)(A) and (B) below; and provided, further, that the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall also have the sole discretion to
    reduce the number of nominees to fewer than four (or five), but, in no event, fewer than two, in a particular category for the current season or to delegate this discretion to the Nominating Committee.

    so we could have fewer if they really dislike some shows.

    Of course, it would be a major slap in the face to reduce the number. And given how commercial the Tonys truly are, it’s unlikely to happen, but could.

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