December 10, 2011 at 5:33 pm #430539
In an effort to get the Tony section jumping, post your VERY early predictions in this thread!December 10, 2011 at 5:48 pm #430541
I haven’t seen any plays in a while, so I’m going for musical.
Actor in a Musical
Reeve Carney, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
Actress in a Musical
Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess
No clue about the featured performers.
Direction of a Musical
Book of a Musical
No idea about score.December 11, 2011 at 1:29 pm #430542
- Once (Now that we know it’s transferring and based on the word of mouth, I think it’s a shoo-in)
- Ghost: The Musical (After the reception in London, it should have a good chance)
- Newsies (I loved it, and as long as they find a good lead they should be in)
- Rebecca (No other contenders, after this one)
Honorable Mention: As much as I (and many others) enjoyed “Bonnie and Clyde” that thrashing by critics and the fact that it might close by January means it has a zero chance of getting in. The Wildhorn curse continues.December 12, 2011 at 9:48 am #430543
There are a few contenders who haven’t opened, but I would expect the nominations will be led by Follies, Evita, Newsies, Once and Other Desert Cities.
The best actress categories will be nail-biters, with Elena Roger, Jan Maxwell and Audra McDonald in the mix for musical and Stockard Channing, Nina Arianda and Tracie Bennett potentially competing for play.December 12, 2011 at 10:57 am #430544
And even though her vehicle closed early in the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tyne Daly in the Play nominees’ circle for “Master Class.”December 12, 2011 at 6:13 pm #430545
I am calling it now that Audra McDonald is going to win.December 12, 2011 at 6:32 pm #430546
While it’s closing in just over a month, Follies has such potential to win acting categories and Revival.
The significant time gap is concerning, in regards to being remember come nomination time, however this production of Follies will be transfering to Los Angeles and begin performances middle of May, which means it will be receiving new publicity right around nomination time.
If they did get nominations in major categories, look out for Jan Maxwell and Bernadette Peters in Lead Actress, Danny Burstein in Lead Actor, Elaine Paige in Featured Actress, Best Revival, as well as some other categories. If anyone has seen the production they know they all truly deserve the recognition!
Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.December 12, 2011 at 8:01 pm #430547
Best new musical will be between Newsies and Once.
Follies will win best revival.
That’s all I know..December 13, 2011 at 5:02 pm #430548
Theresa Rebeck’s Play Seminar is getting OK reviews but Alan Rickman is getting raves, maybe this is Tony nomination number three for the actorDecember 13, 2011 at 11:23 pm #430549
I am calling it now that Audra McDonald is going to win.
Jan Maxwell will win. She deserves it (haven’t seen Porgy and Bess) but has also lost many times. I highly doubt McDonald, good as she may be, gets her fifth before Maxwell gets one..December 13, 2011 at 11:56 pm #430550
I agree that I’ll be pretty annoyed if Audra gets her fifth. I mean, I love her as much as the next musical theater dork.. but come on.. She has the upper hand in the fact that Follies will be closed by June, but the controversy surrounding the production may discourage some voters from voting for her.December 29, 2011 at 10:42 am #430551
bumpDecember 29, 2011 at 6:04 pm #430552
I agree that I’ll be pretty annoyed if Audra gets her fifth. I mean, I love her as much as the next musical theater dork.. but come on.. She has the upper hand in the fact that Follies will be closed by June, but the controversy surrounding the production may discourage some voters from voting for her.
I think Audra McDonald is great as well.. But will be appalled if she beats Maxwell’s bravura performance (for several reasons). I think it will be many, many years before the Tonys put her in Harris / Lansbury company. McDonald may even be their age 65+ when she wins her 5th. Other than Follies, I am painfully underwhelmed so far..January 23, 2012 at 5:22 pm #430553
3. Ghost the Musical
4. Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
5. Nice Work If You Can Get It
6. Bonnie & Clyde
7. Leap of Faith
8. Lysistrata Jones
Any other new musicals in contention? I might be forgetting something that already closed.January 23, 2012 at 11:59 pm #430554
I actually think that, despite lackluster critical reviews, Bonnie & Clyde will make an appearance in Best Musical. It is one of those shows that critics don’t seem very fond of collectively, but that audiences leave surprisingly enjoying it. Numerous colleagues of mine who had the opportunity to see it have come out saying, “That got bad reviews? Really?” Word is that it isn’t stellar but that it is far better than it’s credit for.
Spider-Man getting a nod, 24Emmy? I feel like that show is hanging above its grave by a string. I have no interest in seeing it, but its being nominated after all the trouble its had would be the butt of many a joke.
BEST MUSICAL (as of January 2012)
1. Once (once it transfers…)
2. Newsies (why not?)
3 Ghost the Musical (London good reception = NY success?)
4. Bonnie & Clyde (killed by critics, but revived by surprised W.O.M.?)
6. Lysistrata Jones
Man, I didn’t realize how unexciting this race is up until now.
Right now, I’m not quite sure what plays will be considered “Revivals” and which will be considered “New.” Stick Fly has been around for a while, but never on Broadway. I’ll wait until the decision is made by the judging committee. Wit was only ever Off-Broadway, but its so prominent …
My thought on early contenders: Chicago-premiered Chinglish will get in, as will Off-Broadway transfer Other Desert Cities. Seminar sounds underwhelming despite Rickman’s work, and The Mountaintop does too (though its Olivier win could keep it in the running).
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