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2022 BAFTA TV Awards Predictions

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    forwardswill
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    #1204514586

    So basically the nominations are decided by jury and the winners by the entire BAFTA membership,right? Am I missing something?

    Both by jury. You’re thinking of the film voting system

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    K.Adams
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    #1204514709

    Both by jury. You’re thinking of the film voting system

    Thanks for the info 🙂🙂. Then honestly, I don’t understand the need of having a BAFTA TV membership. And I will now expect some brutal snubs like Olly Alexander (since he wasn’t the best part of It’s A Sin), Brett Goldstein (too much swearing for a jury’s sensibilities), Kate Winslet (the jury’s apathy towards stars).

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    wolfali
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    #1204514879

    Mini-Series

    1. It’s a Sin (Channel 4) – By far the most popular and acclaimed mini-series contending in this category this year. Will be stunned if it misses.

    2. Time (BBC One) – Jimmy McGovern dramas tend to have performed quite well with the jury (perhaps due to their naturalism and social realism) and there should honestly be no difference to that when Time is arguably his most popular and topical drama.

    ————————————————————————————————

    3. Landscapers (Sky Atlantic) – We always tend to have one or two late releases here in the end. Considering how much BAFTA has gravitated towards grittier and genre amalgamating shows in the past, Landscapers seems to have a shot if it delivers in quality.

    4. Ridley Road (BBC One) – Seems striking enough because of its subject matter for it to make it into series even if it misses the other categories like The State or The Victim.

    5. Deceit (Channel 4) – Fits the trend of the type of four part Channel 4 miniseries that tends to dominate this category (Adult MaterialThe VirtuesKiriThe StateNational Treasure). However the passion does seem to be more focused on its performances rather than the show itself which could hinder it in a category as competitive as this.

    6. Stephen (ITV) – With its strong reception and its subject matter there does feel like a rooting factor behind Stephen. That being said it could be a bit too slight to make it into a competitive series category like this (like Quiz last year).

    ————————————————————————————————

    7. Three Families (BBC One) – Again another social drama that usually tends to thrive in a category like this. However with how tough competition is this year and the passion for this not being unlimited, I can see this going a similar path to <i>Baghdad Central</i> (it makes the cut in some categories but is ultimately too small to make the cut in mini-series).

    8. The Serpent (BBC One) – Another audience hit in this category but as BAFTA have shown in the past being a commercial or zeitgeist hit doesn’t guarantee you nominations. Perhaps the closest precedence for a nomination for The Serpent is <i>Doctor Foster</i> season 1 where whilst it isn’t the most prestigious show around, its a show that has lots of industry and audience passion that grew week after week whilst it was airing. However Doctor Foster was practically unstoppable when it came to the nomination and Suranne Jones won. Whilst Tahar Rahim does seem like a strong nomination contender it doesn’t feel like <i>The Serpent</i> is really in the same situation.

    9. The Pursuit of Love (BBC One) – On paper it seems like it should be a safe bet but the audience response to The Pursuit of Love was more polarising than it should have been. I can see it end up like Collateral or <i>Staged</i> where the jury, whether rightly or wrongly, construes it as a vanity project and snub it save for say a showy supporting performance from one of the bigger names in the cast (maybe Andrew Scott is the Billie Piper of this year?)

    ————————————————————————————————

    10. <i>Around the World in 80 Days</i> (BBC One) – Probably has little chance at happening but David Tennant is incredibly hot, talented and underrated so let’s manifest!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    forwardswill
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    #1204515503

    Then honestly, I don’t understand the need of having a BAFTA TV membership

    Because you can be on the juries, just not every year

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    Craig Kell
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    #1204517383

    Maxine Peake has finally confirmed that ‘Anne’ will air in 2022.

    https://twitter.com/MPeakeOfficial/status/1448283506468081667

    https://www.televisual.com/wp-content/uploads/anne-world.jpg

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    wolfali
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    #1204518636

    For a while I’ve felt like Comer might be able to cruise to the finish line on the strength and showiness of her performance like Jackson did but I’m starting to wonder if the fact she might turn up at some of the winter awards (and the BAFTAs) for The Last Duel might hurt her for the win? If Winslet might be hurt for the win by being too established and dominant at the winter awards (alongside having won the Emmy) for Mare of Easttown then can’t a similar thing be said of Comer. She’s less established in retrospect to Winslet of course but she’s made a bit of a name of herself since her win for Killing Eve in the UK and will do even more so both at home and internationally with both Free Guy and The Last Duel.

    The question is who benefits? Lydia West is the type of newcomer BAFTA juries have gravitated towards in the past but she arguably doesn’t have a strong enough tape to win, Sharlene Whyte has the role and performance but not the tape and Fiona Shaw, Olivia Colman, Lesley Manville etc all suffer from the same issue Winslet and Comer may have.

    Can anyone who has seen Deceit (haven’t seen it yet) elaborate as to how showy Algar’s performance is?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    AMG
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    #1204518956

    BEST ENTERTAINMENT PERFORMANCE PREDICTION

    Victoria Coren Mitchell – Only Connect
    Mo Gilligan – The Lateish Show
    Rosie Jones – Trip Hazard
    Michael McIntyre – The Wheel
    Graham Norton – The Graham Norton Show
    Romesh Ranganathan – The Ranganation

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    wolfali
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    #1204518968

    BEST ENTERTAINMENT PERFORMANCE PREDICTION Victoria Coren Mitchell – Only Connect Mo Gilligan – The Lateish Show Rosie Jones – Trip Hazard Michael McIntyre – The Wheel Graham Norton – The Graham Norton Show Romesh Ranganathan – The Ranganation

    Don’t give me hopes about a Claudia Winkleman snub! Have nothing against her but it’s tiring how she keeps getting undeserving (and arguably tokenistic) nominations for her work as a host on <i>Strictly Come Dancing</i> when she’s been far better on other shows like Film and The Great British Sewing Bee.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    AMG
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    #1204518980

    Don’t give me hopes about a Claudia Winkleman snub! Have nothing against her but it’s tiring how she keeps getting undeserving (and arguably tokenistic) nominations for her work as a host on <i>Strictly Come Dancing</i> when she’s been far better on other shows like Film and The Great British Sewing Bee.

    I’d be fully here for a Strictly/Winkleman nom again. But if she does get nominated again, she needs to win now.

    Actually, any female needs to given no woman has actually won this award since it’s inception over 25 years ago!!

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    wolfali
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    #1204518988

    Actually, any female needs to given no woman has actually won this award since it’s inception over 25 years ago!!

    Which is absolutely ridiculous. Toksvig (for QI and really anything), Winkleman (for Film and The Great British Sewing Bee), Coren Mitchell (for Only Connect), Rachel Parris (for The Mash Report) and many others have been deserving over the past few years alone never mind 25 years.

    I like Graham Norton but he didn’t need to win six times. Although frankly some of the other people with multiple wins in this category weren’t even deserving of more than one win.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    Karen Gill.
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    Aug 23rd, 2021
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    #1204519257

    Sharlene Whyte has the role and performance but not the tape and Fiona Shaw, Olivia Colman, Lesley Manville etc all suffer from the same issue Winslet and Comer may have. Can anyone who has seen Deceit (haven’t seen it yet) elaborate as to how showy Algar’s performance is?

    I’m a bit perplexed here. Olivia Colman was snubbed by the BAFTA jury (so was Gillian Anderson) but everyone is predicting Kate Winslet to be in the top 2? What has changed? Isn’t there a possibility she gets snubbed altogether?

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    Manav
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    #1204519353

    I doubt BAFTAs will snub this level of acclaim. It actually will give a kind of negative press. The huge Mulligan snub last year almost single handedly caused them to change rules to allow top 2 to get in directly. So I doubt such a big snub happening again. C’mon the jury is artistic but it ain’t crazy.

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    wolfali
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    #1204520097

    Drama Series

    1. Unforgotten (ITV) – It has shown up a few times in the past for some of its actors with the jury and this season it seemed to explode in passion and cultural visibility. This being a weak field without really any other passion inducing contenders (like we had with I Hate Suzie) or even any strong retuning ones (like The Crown and Save Me) makes it also an unpredictable one but with the dire situation at hand, it would be surprising (perhaps even terrifying?) if this misses.

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    2. Bloodlands (BBC One) – Critically acclaimed and would also be an opportunity for the jury to recognise a show produced and set in a region that isn’t explored so deeply in the UK. It was quite a big hit earlier this year which can really go either way for it (on the one hand it has the industry visibility, on the other it aired so long ago) but with how well we’ve seen stuff like Baghdad Central and Kiri do in the past in spite of this, I don’t think this will be a big hurdle.

    ————————————————————————————————

    3. Guilt (BBC Two) – Another critically acclaimed hit and regionally produced programme. Its premise sounds incredibly accessible to the type of high brow sensibilities we’ve seen juries have in the past. That being said if we take the weak field and the inevitable difference in jury composition aside, is there any reason why it can happen now that couldn’t have also been applied the year its first season got shut out?

    4. All Creatures Great and Small (Channel 5) – It has strong critical and audience passion and would fit in with the occasional more light hearted choice we’ve seen show up here in the past (i.e. The Durrells). Likewise it also got in with the BPG last year so there does definitely seem to be prestige appeal behind it. That being said could it be too fluffy a drama?

    5. Vigil (BBC One) – Arguably the most widely talked about drama series of the year. There’s a big cast and pedigree behind it and its not as if anyone thought it was terrible. That being said the possibility of it getting a series nomination is so hilarious that I’m holding out hope the jury rejects it.

    6. The Beast Must Die (Britbox) – It seemed to have a lot of buzz once it aired and would be a way for BAFTA to recognise a new streamer’s foray into prestige British television. That being said with such small visibility (it’s on Britbox after all) and such contrasting opinions amongst those who have seen it, it’s hard to tell how a jury would respond to it.

    ————————————————————————————————

    7. Baptiste (BBC One) – Now I feel like I’m really scraping the barrel lol. On the one hand it feels like it’s one of the only dramas of this crop that anyone has seen on the other that doesn’t necessarily factor much with BAFTA. It missed last time round and its predecessor The Missing only made it in for its first season although critical and industry raves for what is supposedly Fiona Shaw’s career best performance and a weak field could help create circumstances for it to sneak in.

    8. In My Skin (BBC Three) – Won the RTS award for drama series last year over I Hate Suzie and Save Me so it’s certainly not lacking in passion. However sometimes there are things like it that end up being too small for the jury to pick up on (like Keeping Faith).

    9. Line of Duty (BBC One) – Should be a safe bet if we’re to look at its past BAFTA history and the cultural conversation surrounding it but its finale was almost universally panned and BAFTA already seemed to move on from it for season 5 (which had a much stronger industry, critical and audience response) that it’s difficult to really see it make it in with a jury in place. It sort of feels like the British equivalent to Game of Thrones season 8 except would GoT have made it in at the Emmys if the drama series category was juried?

    10. Showtrial (BBC One) – Could be a potential late-breaker in this race à la Giri/Haji (which was another BBC “prestige drama” with a lower profile cast) but it’s hard to predict with sight unseen.

    ————————————————————————————————

    11. Doctor Who (BBC One) – It’s one of the most popular shows in contention and this field is embarrassingly weak but every season of the show since its ninth one in 2015 has split the fandom in two when it has come to passion and the show hasn’t been nominated in drama series since season 4 (which was when the show was a cultural phenomenon and was the most raved season of the show) so it would need to do a LOT better for it to ever make it in again at the BAFTAs.

    12. Call the Midwife (BBC One) – See Doctor Who except BAFTA have only nominated it once above the line and that was for its first season.

    13. Endeavour (ITV) – Barrel scraped and have now gone off to A&E to resolve the over exhaustion inflicted!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    wolfali
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    #1204521785

    Scripted Comedy

    1. We Are Lady Parts (Channel 4) – The show has an incredible amount of industry and critical buzz. It sort of reminds me of Derry Girls in a sense. As a show its almost instantaneously become a landmark piece of television due to its breakthrough in representation. Even with all that aside it also has the type of ensemble driven comedy we’ve seen the BAFTAs embrace here in recent times (at least nominations wise).

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    2. Motherland (BBC Two) – It’s a bit risky to bet on it considering the only time its ever made it in at the BAFTAs was for a sole nod for Anna Maxwell-Martin for season 1 but Motherland seems to have exploded in industry and audience appreciation unlike any continuing show this year. With how Ghosts managed to get from zero to two nominations last year because it finally got through the membership round of voting and sailed past the jury I have more confidence that a surge for Motherland can happen here. It’s worth mentioning that just like Call My Agent it has already capitalised on its surge with its mentions at this year’s international Emmys (it tends to be a rarity for shows this late in their runs to break through there) for its Christmas special. I guess the closest precedence for it making it in here is how another Sharon Horgan produced comedy, Catastrophe received an individual acting nomination for one of its central performances but only broke through in a big way here later on in its run.

    ————————————————————————————————

    3. Ghosts (BBC One) – It’s no different a show to the one it was last year in really any respect although BAFTA has tended to spread the wealth in this particular category in the past so it could miss if the jury feels its two nominations last year is apt recognition for it.

    4. Stath Lets Flats (Channel 4) – An industry favourite and one that seems to have become even more so in its hiatus. However BAFTA have a tendency to drop comedies once they’ve been awarded with this prize (Rev. is the only one in the past decade to survive this) so after a clean sweep of wins last time round the jury coming in this time round might think the show itself has been aptly awarded and might only nominate Demetriou.

    5. Inside No. 9 (BBC Two) – One of the most outlandishly comedic shows in contention here. But is it perhaps telling that it could only make it in when the field was weak as it was last year?

    6. Starstruck (BBC Three) – I had this in for a long time but then I remembered how apathetic BAFTA have been towards “more dramatic” comedies. Starstruck isn’t a drama by any means but it isn’t a comedy that really stands out with laugh out loud moments and that’s something we’ve seen hurt shows in the past before.

    7. This Way Up (Channel 4) – It seemed to have an even bigger season 2 when it came to critical and industry passion and like Stath Lets FlatsStarstruck and many other of its competitors this year it has that auteur driven feel that we’ve seen BAFTA juries eat up here. That being said its hard to really determine whether its miss in scripted comedy last time round was because it didn’t get through to the jury round of voting or because it was too “dramatic”. Perhaps a telling sign this year would be whether Aisling Bea can make it in this time round considering how jury friendly her performance is and that she seems to have a lot of buzz so really should have no difficulty passing the membership round and getting to the jury.

    8. Brassic (Sky Max) – For whatever reason this show keeps turning up someway or another in nominations. It seems like it should be primed for a scripted comedy nomination any day now based on its trajectory of shifting through the categories and on how other shows with similar trajectories have performed but it’s really one of those that are impossible to predict until they get nominated.

    9. Alma’s Not Normal (BBC Two) – This show managed to get nominated and go all the way to a win in the writing last year for its pilot and its first full season seems to have incredible buzz now (I’ve never even seen it yet I can’t stop seeing articles and opinion pieces about it!) With international members in the academy now voting in this category it might be more of a hurdle for it to get through the membership and to the jury round of voting but it could always be one of the BBC’s last minute broadcaster entries for the jury post membership voting which could help it cross the finish line. Perhaps I have it so low purely because with these new rule changes there are bound to be some shock snubs and this could be one of them but if it makes it through to the jury, it seems in a good position.

    10. This Time with Alan Partridge (BBC One) – Did anyone else feel like people really went all out for this season of the show when it aired or am I imagining something? Every iteration of Alan Partridge has gotten nominated somehow although not necessarily in scripted comedy so perhaps the additional buzz and passion for the show results in a comedy performance nomination for Coogan. According to IMDB there seem to be have been some interesting guest appearances from industry names on this season of the show.

    ————————————————————————————————

    11. Feel Good (Netflix) – Another show that seemed to explode with its second season (seems to be a trend here!) perhaps due to more people having caught up with its first season in between the airing of both of them and its audience just seemed larger this time round when it probably isn’t that much bigger from the one it had when Martin was nominated earlier this year. Ultimately this show really stretches the limit one can call itself a comedy (I say this as a passionate fan of it and Martin’s work on it!) so I’m not keeping my hopes up outside of a potential Martin repeat nom. BAFTA has made a few sentimental choices when it comes to series nominations so with this being its final season I guess “it has a chance”.

    12. Back to Life (BBC One) – Again auteur driven although sadly again also “too dramatic”.

    13. Sex Education (Netflix) – My guess is the show’s dramedy nature has hurt its chances at a series nomination like so many others in the past because there’s no other logical explanation for the show missing scripted comedy but receiving more nominations than most drama series nominees end up doing year on year. The September release will help it be in minds a little closer towards membership voting than usual so if it doesn’t make it into scripted comedy this year, it’s unlikely it ever will with the jury.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    wolfali
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    #1204522687

    Prediction centre results!

    Drama Series

    1. Line of Duty (BBC One) – 7/1 odds
    2. Vigil (BBC One) – 7/1 odds
    3. Unforgotten (ITV) – 8/1 odds
    4. Baptiste (BBC One) – 11/1 odds

    Next in Line:

    5. All Creatures Great and Small (Channel 5) – 33/2 odds
    6. The Beast Must Die (Britbox) – 33/2 odds
    7. Guilt (BBC Two) – 33/2 odds
    8. Annika (Alibi) – 33/1 odds
    9. Bloodlands (BBC One) – 33/1 odds
    10. Call the Midwife (BBC One) – 33/1 odds

    11. Doctor Who (BBC One) – 33/1 odds
    12. Grace (ITV) – 33/1 odds
    13. In My Skin (BBC Three) – 33/1 odds
    14. The Pact (BBC One) – 33/1 odds
    15. Shetland (BBC One) – 33/1 odds

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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