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Anyway here are my first predictions.
Drama Series
1. Somewhere Boy
2. The Responder
3. Sherwood
4. Bad SistersThoughts: Could really see any of these win. Sherwood makes the most sense on paper as the most popular and acclaimed show of the pack but it also feels too predictable for BAFTA. The Responder feels like the type of drama they also like (and they clearly liked it a lot) but it shares a lot with Sherwood which I imagine wouldn’t help it much. Sharon Horgan’s shows tend to play well with the jury and I think Bad Sisters stands out a lot as the only female led show and the only dramedy here. That being said they haven’t awarded a streaming show yet in any of their series categories and Apple just entered the circuit so I can see the jury holding off at that. Hence why I’m going for Somewhere Boy which not only has some of the best reviews of all four of the shows in this category but it is also artsier than Sherwood and The Responder and feels like the small Channel 4 indie that thrives here.
Scripted Comedy
1. Ghosts
2. Big Boys
3. Am I Being Unreasonable?
4. Derry GirlsThoughts: Whilst they’re voted on by different juries there tends to be a match up with the acting categories and series categories in what ends up winning so I’m keeping an eye out for Am I Being Unreasonable? and Big Boys. However Ghosts is the most outwardly comedic show in this category and fits the profile of series only nominees that have surprisingly triumphed here (oftentimes later in their runs) over the more dramatic yet also more acclaimed comedies. That being said this was by far the weakest series of the show so I don’t know if it would have even been nominated if so many previous nominees didn’t air this year and it could very well just be filler. Would love to see Derry Girls triumph but I think it will just end as a BAFTA bridesmaid.
Mini-Series
1. Mood
2. This is Going to Hurt
3. The Thief, His Wife and the Canoe
4. A Spy Among FriendsThoughts: The topicality behind This is Going to Hurt could prevent it from having a similar fate to other popular and acclaimed dramas that have been recognised with nominations at BAFTA but get completely shut out above the line. That being said Mood just looks like it was made for a jury and also seems to have a very strong topical contemporary angle. The Thief, His Wife and the Canoe feels like it might be too comedic and I’m still shocked A Spy Among Friends was nominated at all.
International Series
1. Pachinko
2. The Bear
3. Oussekine
4. The White Lotus
5. Dahmer
6. WednesdayThoughts: Should be any one of the first 4. Pachinko triumphed at the Gothams and is the quirkiest (and arguably most acclaimed) of the pack with it being a multi-lingual drama with a cast of largely unknown (in the Western sphere) Asian actors so it should have the edge here.
Leading Actress
1. Billie Piper
2. Maxine Peake
3. Vicky McClure
4. Kate Winslet
5. Sarah Lancashire
6. Imelda StauntonThoughts: It’s hard to ignore just how much Piper stands out in this field (and not just because she has the showiest, and best, performance here). She feels almost like Jodie Comer last year in that regard. But then Maxine Peake has a role they love to award. As does Vicky McClure. And Kate Winslet is in a single drama so they’ll have seen all of her performance. This is going to be suspenseful. Staunton is the only one that would surprise me.
Leading Actor
1. Martin Freeman
2. Ben Whishaw
3. Gary Oldman
4. Cillian Murphy
5. Chaske Spencer
6. Taron EgertonThoughts: Feels like another competitive category this year. Feels weird to be predicting Freeman to win when I don’t have The Responder currently winning series but his role looks like a really meaty actors part that the jury tend to love to award (like Sean Bean in Broken or Sarah Lancashire in Happy Valley). A lot of the hype around his performance also has been around it being a very against type role for him so I can see that playing a big factor here too. Whishaw could take it too but I feel like he’s the type of thespian who everyone knows is already very well awarded and his acting style feels a bit too cold here. Murphy feels like someone who could surprise out of nowhere and I imagine Oldman’s performance will play really well with the jury. I guess if any American can win it would be Spencer but I wouldn’t get my hopes up there and Egerton, whilst very good, feels very much like he’s stuck in the slap the stud complex.
Supporting Actress
1. Saffron Hocking
2. Fiona Shaw
3. Adelayo Adedayo
4. Anne-Marie Duff
5. Jasmine Jobson
6. Lesley ManvilleThoughts: No one would begrudge a character actress as revered as Fiona Shaw winning a second BAFTA (it has been so long since her first win for Killing Eve that a lot of people may have even forgotten about it entirely) and she can practically submit any tape she wants and be competitive because she POPS in every single one of them. Andor is also a show I can imagine a jury loving which can conflate things a bit. That being said Adedayo looks very baity and they love their newcomers. As does Hocking. If Duff submits “Saving Grace” she can absolutely win too although I think she still stands a solid shot without it because of her overall character presence. I imagine Jobson being in this category will only help Hocking (like with Wood and Mackey a few years back) because the jury will see two tapes from Top Boy. Manville I guess could stand a chance if she submits the first episode of Sherwood but any other and I think she’s probably an also-ran here because I think it’s easy for her to get lost in both the sea of contenders in this category and the other performances in the ensemble of her show itself.
Supporting Actor
1. Samuel Bottomley
2. Adeel Akhtar
3. Will Sharpe
4. Josh Finan
5. Salim Daw
6. Jack LowdenThoughts: Adeel Akhtar’s performance is quirky to the point that Jack Lowden’s (leading) performance in Slow Horses looks like it’s pretty bogstandard by comparison. That being said I’m not feeling too confident in him winning without Sherwood taking series even though they’re voted on by different juries because they feel like wins that would go hand in hand like Callum Scott-Howells and It’s a Sin last year. That being said just like Fiona Shaw, he’s the type of character actor who I don’t think a jury would have a problem with awarding again. Bottomley feels like the newcomer they tend to like, Sharpe could pull a Macfadyen, Finnan seems baity and I guess as ironic as it would be it would make sense for Daw to be the second actor from The Crown to win seeing he’s the second actor after Kirby (who won) and HBC (who probably came close) to be nominated and have an entire episode focused around his performance.
Comedy Male
1. Lenny Rush
2. Joe Gilgun
3. Jon Pointing
4. Daniel Radcliffe
5. Matt Berry
6. Stephen MerchantThoughts: None of them would surprise me so I guess I’ve just ranked them in terms of who I think has the least hurdles. Rush seems to be doing very well with the other British TV groups, would probably benefit a lot from winning and seems to have a very deadpan performance that I think a jury could eat up. Having Gilgun so high when he’s yet to have won feels weird but he has the auteur angle and sometimes it’s really just a matter of the field you’re in that can make the difference. Pointing has the best performance but also the most dramatic (although that didn’t stop Aimee Lou Wood). Radcliffe is incredibly quirky but is also in what is essentially a Hollywood movie. Berry and Merchant both have outwardly comedic personas which is sometimes all it comes down to but I don’t think the jury will see either as having done particularly revelatory or committed work. Which is a harsh description for Berry because he’s very deserving but I also think the jury may find Laslo too hard to distinguish from the other characters he’s played in the past (if he manages to win I’ll presume it’s just because it’s undeniable how much he can make you laugh on his line delivery alone).
Comedy Female
1. Natasia Demetriou
2. Diane Morgan
3. Daisy May Cooper
4. Lucy Beaumont
5. Taj Atwal
6. Siobhan McSweeneyThoughts: Demetriou benefits from being able to show the most comedic range due to her show being a sketch series. Morgan benefits from having a slew of tapes at her disposal and Cooper from an outwardly comedic persona (and being a very tape system friendly performer). Beaumont feels like the dark horse here.
Writer : Comedy
1. Big Boys
2. Derry Girls
3. The Dry</em
4. MotherlandThoughts: This category tends to go in a fairly predictable direction (usually a combination of the most auteur driven show and the most writer-y show). Derry Girls (which I’m so glad has finally been nominated for something more than scripted comedy) could win but that feels too predictable. The writing style pretty much drives Big Boys as a show (almost like with We Are Lady Parts last year or Alma’s Not Normal two years ago) so I’m going to go for it here. Motherland returning to this category is interesting though and The Dry feels like the type of smaller show that could surprise, although it almost feels too small to do that here.
Writer : Drama
1. The Responder
2. Somewhere Boy
3. This is Going to Hurt
4. HearstopperThoughts: The Responder’s writing is its most acclaimed aspect after Freeman’s performance. Somewhere Boy winning like In My Skin did last year wouldn’t surprise me though.
Director : Fiction
1. This is Going to Hurt
2. The English
3. Bad Sisters
4. Top BoyThoughts: The English feels like the clear directing showcase here but those haven’t been winning as much recently with this category tending to go to the show with the most love overall. This is Going to Hurt has much more directorial flare than It’s a Sin did (and also has a female director) so it makes the most sense here imo.
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Few interesting BAFTA records/stats this year:
– Lesley Manville and Fiona Shaw have now joined Helena Bonham Carter, Monica Dolan, Vanessa Kirby, Sarah Lancashire, Sophie Okonedo, Lauren Socha, Imelda Staunton and Nicola Walker as the only performers to ever be nominated twice (or even more than once) in supporting actress since BAFTA started handing out awards in this category. Of the 10 thespians, 5 of them have won in this category before but none more than once.
– The Crown extends its record as the show with the most supporting actor nominations with Salim Daw’s nod. It now has received 5 nods in this category.
– Ben Whishaw has now received 4 leading actor nominations joining the ranks of Kenneth Branagh, Albert Finney, Michael Gambon, Derek Jacobi, Ian Richardson and John Thaw. He is one nomination away from being joint 2nd in this category from Robbie Coltrane and two from meeting Benedict Cumberbatch’s record of 6. He also is now only one of
five thespians to get nominated in this category for playing four different roles.– Daniel Radcliffe and Matt Berry are the first actors to get nominated in the comedy acting categories for their work in American productions.
– Daisy May Cooper is now tied with Olivia Colman and Miranda Hart for most nominations in the comedy female category.
– For the first time in 1993, when the category still included scripted comedy acting performances, three women have been nominated in entertainment performance. It is also the first time since 1993 that more than one woman has been nominated.
– Bad Sisters is only the second streaming series to ever be nominated for drama series after The Crown. It is also only the 4th streaming show to ever be nominated for a scripted programme BAFTA.
ReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
The others weren’t eligible tho. Only him and Theo James were eligible, since they’re british.
Thanks for pointing that out, I clearly don’t understand their rules then
ReplyCopy URLFYC 2023:
Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Shayda (Best Actress)
Helen Mirren - Golda (Best Actress)
Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer (Best Actor/Actress)It will really annoy me if hocking wins over Jobson. Jobson has been over the past 2 seasons in my opinion the best on the show and that is some effort as Ward and Walters are pretty good
Gilgun needs to win a bafta at some point, he is so equally comfortable with comedy and drama. He’s so good I don’t remember him ever being a soap actor.
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Shane Meadows put one hell of a cast togetherif Billie Piper doesn't win Best Actress I'm going kick all the bins forever.
— Sarah Phelps (@PhelpsieSarah) March 22, 2023
ReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
I’ve yet to see Bad Sisters, but I’m so happy for Anne-Marie Duff! Such a great actress whose work goes under recognised too often.
I think she’s wonderful in it. It’s not an easy role to play and I think it’s a very impressive turn that could have gone unnoticed because she makes it look easy.
ReplyCopy URLI have a question, can some clarify who precisely is voting in the series (drama, comedy, international) categories? Is it both crafts and above the line people?
All members vote in the series categories in the first round of voting. The top 4 (or 6, depending on the category) vote-getters are automatically long-listed and go to the jury round whilst the broadcasters each put forward two shows that didn’t make the cut. Then a jury decides on the final nominees and then the winners.
ReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
All members vote in the series categories in the first round of voting. The top 4 (or 6, depending on the category) vote-getters are automatically long-listed and go to the jury round whilst the broadcasters each put forward two shows that didn’t make the cut. Then a jury decides on the final nominees and then the winners.
Thanks Wolfali!
ReplyCopy URLOverall, we had some great nominees but also some awful omissions. Ambika Mod, especially, is just a HUGE NO! Like, how?! How does someone watch the show and not nominate her?! Yeah, no. The Crown getting 2 acting noms and none being Debicki is also a no. Literally the most acclaimed performance of the season. But at the end of the day, I can’t say I’m surpised. Sadly, not surprised by Blunt’s snub either.
On the bright side, extremely happy for Big Boys (Jon Pointing yay!) and Bad Sisters getting the love they deserve – sad for Sarah Greene but expected, and obviously the noms for Billie Piper, Sarah Lancashire, Ben Wishaw, Taron Egerton (nice surprise), Diane Morgan, Will Sharpe, Fiona Shaw (haven’t seen Andor yet but it’s Aunt Petunia so we stan regardless), Imelda Staunton, Salim Daw (another nice surprise) and The Bear. I need to catch up with the rest of the shows.
ReplyCopy URLOn the whole, I am saying these are much more good than bad this year. Certainly it’s rare that all of my top 5 shows of the year (Big Boys, I Hate Suzie Too, The White Lotus, This is Going to Hurt, Slow Horses) get major nominations so I’m taking the positive view. The Blunt and Debicki nods are frustrating but they’ve already had major recognition elsewhere. Similarly for Mod, I appreciate the desire to spread the wealth this year that saw no show get more than 6 nods.
ReplyCopy URLI have to say it feels so strange seeing House of the Dragon nominated in hair and makeup (which was what was widely agreed to be its weakest attribute) but snubbed in editing and cinematography (in spite of making both the BSC and ASC) lol.
ReplyCopy URLSolidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
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