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She is qualified for an acting nomination.
No one said she isn’t, but you’re looking at this through the eyes of a Selena mega-fan. I say this as someone who is rooting for Selena but isn’t necessarily following her heavily:
If voters they Selena super fans, she’d have already gotten in at SAG or the Emmys. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re antis, they’re probably just ambivalent. She does have an acting resume but this is a lead actress field where everyone does. She’s dependent on her record, reviews, the strength of her show, and how she’s positioned campaign wise.
She is not considered overdue in the minds of anyone who isn’t a Selena mega-fan. It’s only season 2, and she is hurt mostly by being a secondary lead when the rest of the field is primary leads.
I can’t take SAG seriously since they snubbed Succession season 2 (and some people here insisted the show was weak
)SAG is always off with HBO
Succession s2 exploding at the Emmys after getting blanked at SAG
Lovecraft Country getting 4 (or was 5? I can’t remember) noms after only SAG Ensemble
Perry Mason getting blanked at SAG and then getting 2 Emmy noms (although it and Lovecraft Country were in the weakest year ever)
Both Lovecraft Country and Perry Mason got more acting noms than Ensemble+Individual nom Bridgerton.In other worlds, they love Netflix and have a weird relationship with HBO, unless you’re Boardwalk Empire.
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
No one said she isn’t, but you’re looking at this through the eyes of a Selena mega-fan. I say this as someone who is rooting for Selena but isn’t necessarily following her heavily: If voters they Selena super fans, she’d have already gotten in at SAG or the Emmys. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re antis, they’re probably just ambivalent. She does have an acting resume but this is a lead actress field where everyone does. She’s dependent on her record, reviews, the strength of her show, and how she’s positioned campaign wise. She is not considered overdue in the minds of anyone who isn’t a Selena mega-fan. It’s only season 2, and she is hurt mostly by being a secondary lead when the rest of the field is primary leads.
Hi, I think you’re twisting my words a little here. The original post I replied to was claiming Selena’s not done enough in her career for the television academy to warrant a nomination. I said that point is arguable and irrelevant.
I do adore Selena Gomez, but I try to evaluate her chances as objectively as I can. With Jean Smart out of the race, I definitely believe she deserves a nomination. I never said it’s ‘overdue’ or anything of that sort.
I think Selena can happen if voters are not into Dead to Me that much anymore only nominating Applegate, but Cardellini already made it in for this show and I think the show is really a two hander, and now it got more likely for her.
That leaves me with one spot and right now I think it’s Ortega, the novelty of Wednesday could wear off (as it’s already is IMO) by the time Emmy comes which would give Selena her spot (Selena is my 7th).
And there’s also the spring people who can make a splash I guess, although I don’t see a Hacks s1 coming, maybe Lucky Hank.
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
I do adore Selena Gomez, but I try to evaluate her chances as objectively as I can. With Jean Smart out of the race, I definitely believe she deserves a nomination. I never said it’s ‘overdue’ or anything of that sort.
OK, fair enough, sorry if I misinterpreted what you were saying.
QUINTA HIVE WE’VE WON
Lisa Ann Walter is probably happening with Einbinder out. Chris Perfetti and William Stanford Davis also deserve but I don’t see it for them.
I wonder if Leslie Odom Jr. will happen in Guest.
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
I think Selena can happen if voters are not into Dead to Me that much anymore only nominating Applegate, but Cardellini already made it in for this show and I think the show is really a two hander, and now it got more likely for her. That leaves me with one spot and right now I think it’s Ortega, the novelty of Wednesday could wear off (as it’s already is IMO) by the time Emmy comes which would give Selena her spot (Selena is my 7th). And there’s also the spring people who can make a splash I guess, although I don’t see a Hacks s1 coming, maybe Lucky Hank.
I agree. I would personally vote for both Applegate and Cardellini and can see them both getting in, but with the passion for Dead to Me being centred around Applegate, I’m worried about Cardellini’s chances. Ortega is questionable to me right now. Wednesday is/was a phenomenon, but the hype seems to have declined as of late. Her SAG and GG noms are encouraging and are obviously indicative of an Emmy nom, but like I previously said, this feels like an Alison Brie situation *to me*. As a Selena fan, I obviously believe she deserves to be nominated, but this time she actually has the material required to back it up. Right now, I’d say that the top 6 on the prediction centre (replace Ortega with Cardellini) would make so much sense and I could genuinely see happening.
FYC: Only Murders in the Building and The Handmaid’s Tale in all categories including Selena Gomez, Steve Martin, Martin Short, Elisabeth Moss, and Yvonne Strahovski.
I personally don’t understand why there’s this whirlwind of politics that surrounds Gomez’s potential nomination. I didn’t know much about her prior to the series, but I thought her performance was really great. She surprisingly has the dramatic prowess to be the straight man against Marty and Steve. And I enjoyed watching her come into a more comedic role in this past season. She’d get a tick on my ballot.
we know who should get Jean’s spot
I personally don’t understand why there’s this whirlwind of politics that surrounds Gomez’s potential nomination
There isn’t a whirlwind of politics, the category is just very strong (perhaps the strongest of all twelve acting categories currently, although the supporting actress comedy category isn’t far behind).
There is no real way of this category not having someone very deserving miss.
The question is probably what shows does Hacks overlap with in viewership with a female lead
I think where Einbinder’s (who I wouldn’t call a coattail, but has probably been pretty dependent on Smart’s support) votes go is possibly more interesting.
I’m still not entirely sold that Abbott can stretch to three on a limited ballot, but I’m willing to be convinced otherwise
I think The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Only Murders in the Building are the shows that benefit the most from Hacks being ineligible. The former has always been helped by it being a show about the industry so it being the only one returning this Spring (aside from Barry at least) probably helps to put more attention on it and helps to reinforce say Alex Borstein’s position as a supporting actress nominee for the final season. The latter was always getting nominated in series with or without Hacks being in contention but it was also always teetering somewhere in the mid to low range in the series race so Hacks being out of the way helps it establish itself more in races like writing, directing and guest actress where it may otherwise have been more vulnerable in depending on the competition from the shows in the Spring.
I don’t think it really changes much else tbh, at least in my own predictions at this point. Until this afternoon I didn’t even have Elle Fanning in my predictions because I wasn’t sure whether The Great was making eligibility or not so I basically just have her and the other 5 I had when the centre opened and I already had Sarah Goldberg in due to the return of the restricted ballot so it was just a matter of moving her up to 7th and then finding someone else to put into 8th for me. It will be interesting to see what impact Hacks being ineligible has on the writing race. It might not have that much of one if shows like Barry and The Bear submit multiple episodes but in the event that they don’t there’s one open slot there for a show to come in and fill. Do the writers just default to Shadows even though they dropped it at WGA this year? Does Maisel pull a The Good Wife and get in for its finale after getting snubbed for all the seasons in between its first at the Emmys but largely continuing to get in at WGA? Does The Great make a comeback? Does a new show come from behind? A lot of us have largely joked about The Other Two breaking through in an endearing way towards the show but I actually do think this could be where it finally happens with the HBO/meta industry commentary/previously nominated writers/critical darling package going for it. After all the CSA already just nominated it this year when Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary were ineligible (and over What We Do in the Shadows which won there last time round).
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Lisa Ann Walter is probably happening with Einbinder out. Chris Perfetti and William Stanford Davis also deserve but I don’t see it for them.
I wonder if Leslie Odom Jr. will happen in Guest.
Orlando Jones seems like a good bet for a Guest nomination too.
For what it’s worth on Wiki page views for this cycle – I did a query on everyone with 50+ predictions – (keeping in mind WHERE people are at: i.e some are unaired, some are mid-cycle, two are Oscar nominees this cycle, some are really famous, etc etc etc)
This sort of thing doesn’t necessarily show much more than visibility (although if someone is very high you don’t expect it might mean they’re going under the radar). I do think it shows a few things, notably how much higher Goldstein is than Mohammed, that Ralph is #1, but Walter and James are pretty similar but Perfetti might struggle, Cecily is quite visible etc)
Lead
4m+
Jenna Ortega
Selena Gomez3-4m
Christina Applegate2-3m+
Jason Sudeikis (unaired)
Linda Cardellini
Steve Martin
Jeremy Allen White1-2m+
Courteney Cox (unaired)
Martin Short
Nicholas Hoult (unaired)
Bill Hader (unaired)
Quinta Brunson
Jason Segel
Elle Fanning (unaired)0.5m-1m
Amy Schumer
Rachel Brosnahan (unaired)Under 500K
Mohammed AmerSupp
3-4m
Harrison Ford
Michelle Yeoh (unaired)
Gwendoline Christie2-3m+
No one1-2m+
Hannah Waddingham (unaired)
Brett Goldstein (unaired)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
Brian Tyree Henry
Juno Temple (unaired)
Cecily Strong
Henry Winkler (unaired)0.5-1m
Zazie Beetz
Tyler James Williams
Kenan Thompson
Tony Shalhoub (unaired)
Natasia Demetriou
Ayo Edebiri
Lisa Ann Walter
Alex Borstein (unaired)
Janelle JamesUnder 500K
Bowen Yang
Anthony Carrigan (unaired)
Chris Perfetti
Nick Mohammed (unaired)
Sarah Goldberg (unaired)
Luke Kirby (unaired)
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