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This was so insightful thank you! I also have hope as Selena has something in her arsenal that other Best Actress candidates don’t. Her documentary was a big hit on Apple TV+; the titular song even made the Oscars shortlist. Let’s hope the television academy put their dormant accounts to use amidst Ted Lasso hiatus and watched it.
All I know is that Comedy Actress will be very interesting this year. There are 4 actresses who are locked/incredibly likely to be nominated, then the last two spots are up for grabs. Like you said, Selena does have something that her peers don’t and this could benefit her, but like a lot of people mentioned last year, her not getting a nom felt somewhat pointed and personal. I think the restricted ballot will help her too but it’s so hard to predict things when it comes to Selena, especially since a lot of people don’t take her seriously, but I think that has changed as of late.
FYC: Only Murders in the Building and The Handmaid’s Tale in all categories including Selena Gomez, Steve Martin, Martin Short, Elisabeth Moss, and Yvonne Strahovski.
It’s frustrating because the lower-tier candidates are mostly from non-competitive series, meanwhile Only Murders belongs to a higher caliber.
Gomez definitely deserves her space on the ballot.
Everyone is on a different side of the divide when it comes to dramedies but ultimately Peacock and the people behind this show have said that is a direct homage to the detective network procedurals of the 70s and 80s like Columbo and Murder, She Wrote that not only competed in drama but also are considered to be dramas in the cultural context. It would be disingenuous of them to turn around and say oh but actually our detective show is a comedy for awards purposes.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
Has there been any update on Girls5Eva at Netflix/ production timeline? With the increased visibility I’m hoping at least Renee makes it in.
Has there been any update on Girls5Eva at Netflix/ production timeline? With the increased visibility I’m hoping at least Renee makes it in.
They were just about close to finishing filming around now for both its previous seasons whilst they haven’t even started yet for season 3 so I’m assuming it will be ineligible.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
This was so insightful thank you! I also have hope as Selena has something in her arsenal that other Best Actress candidates don’t. Her documentary was a big hit on Apple TV+; the titular song even made the Oscars shortlist. Let’s hope the television academy put their dormant accounts to use amidst Ted Lasso hiatus and watched it.
I think Gomez big advantage (to me) is that she plays very broad (there are a bunch of ways of quantifying this with data, but they’re not terribly interesting so I won’t bore anyone).
Playing broad is often the subject of a lot of eye rolls but the reality is it’s not as easy as people think (a lot of the people who are good at this tend to have a couple of specific training backgrounds – for instance SNL alums, actors who’ve come through the Disney system, certain types of theatre actors – you need to understand you’re trying to appeal to the whole room).
Not everyone has a highly specific opinion on who is or isn’t funny in whatever year (auteurs, industry-in-jokes, physical comedy, a specific style of line delivery, a particular narrative etc) so in the right field if too many options are like that, someone like Gomez is at an advantage.
Also: this is a hot take, but I don’t necessarily think Applegate (a perceived lock) is going to hold. I think that actors do want to celebrate her but I can see them wanting to do that now, not in six months, and I doubt Applegate is going to want to spend months campaigning. Season 1 and 2 had extreme recency bias and the show’s long tail is fairly average.
They were just about close to finishing filming around now for both its previous seasons whilst they haven’t even started yet for season 3 so I’m assuming it will be ineligible.
I would presume Girls5Eva is positioned where it’s most commercially appropriate given it was an acquisition as opposed to specifically aligned to awards. That show’s issue has never been the content but the lack of audience.
Also: this is a hot take, but I don’t necessarily think Applegate (a perceived lock) is going to hold. I think that actors do want to celebrate her but I can see them wanting to do that now, not in six months, and I doubt Applegate is going to want to spend months campaigning.
She’s not a lock but I think it’s very clear there’s a lot of passion and excitement for her even as there isn’t for Dead to Me (aside from SAG, who dropped the ensemble and Cardellini themselves, it was dropped from every guild it made for season 2). If Cuoco and Rae can happen in spite of The Flight Attendant and Insecure being early releases and getting almost nothing outside of them then so can she.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
She’s not a lock but I think it’s very clear there’s a lot of passion and excitement for her even as there isn’t for Dead to Me (aside from SAG, who dropped the ensemble and Cardellini themselves, it was dropped from every guild it made for season 2). If Cuoco and Rae can happen in spite of The Flight Attendant and Insecure being early releases and getting almost nothing outside of them then so can she.
Oh I agree with that and if the Emmys were tomorrow I wouldn’t even question it. But I do think it’s a possibility the passing of time doesn’t help her in a fairly competitive year.
I think Gomez big advantage (to me) is that she plays very broad (there are a bunch of ways of quantifying this with data, but they’re not terribly interesting so I won’t bore anyone). Playing broad is often the subject of a lot of eye rolls but the reality is it’s not as easy as people think (a lot of the people who are good at this tend to have a couple of specific training backgrounds – for instance SNL alums, actors who’ve come through the Disney system, certain types of theatre actors – you need to understand you’re trying to appeal to the whole room). Not everyone has a highly specific opinion on who is or isn’t funny in whatever year (auteurs, industry-in-jokes, physical comedy, a specific style of line delivery, a particular narrative etc) so in the right field if too many options are like that, someone like Gomez is at an advantage.
This is so true when you assess the response to her performance. Meryl Streep approached her at the SAG Awards last year, and kissed her hands in awe. To go even a step further, Gomez with her producer hat on said she was trying to get her to be in the next season, and boom she secured it. Getting Meryl on the small screen is a big feat. And then you have her own competition, veteran-Jean Smart admitting to Martin Short on actors on actors she was impressed with Gomez. Critical consensus reads that she is the glue that completes the trio.
She has so much support, that on paper she should be able to secure a mere nomination.
Early prediction centre looks like:
Ted Lasso: Sudeikis, Waddingham, Temple, Mohammed, Goldstein (series)
Abbott: Brunson, Ralph, James, Williams (series) (steady)
Barry: Winkler, Carrigan, Hader (series)
Maisel: Brosnahan, Shalhoub (no series)
Wednesday: Ortega, Christie (series)
Only Murders: Short and Martin (series)
The Bear: White and Edebiri (series)
The Great (series)
Hacks: Smart (series)
Dead to Me: Applegate (no series)
Atlanta: Tyree Henry (no series)
SNL: Yang (series ineligible)
These look not entirely unrealistic, if a bit premature
Are women funnier than men ? How is Lead Actor once again this empty ?
First predictions
1- Ted Lasso
2- Abbott Elementary
3- The Bear
4- Barry
5- Hacks
6- Only Murders in the Building
7- Wednesday
8- The Great (although I have Maisel in the odds)1- Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
2- Jeremy Allen White – The Bear
3- Bill Hader – Berry
4- Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
5- Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
6- Nicholas Hoult – The Great1- Jean Smart – Hacks
2- Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
3- Jenna Ortega – Wednesday
4- Christina Applegate – DTM
5- Linda Cardellini – DTM
6- Elle Fanning – The Great1- Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
2- Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso
3- Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
4- Henry Winkler – Barry
5- Anthony Carrigan – Barry
6- Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
7- Chris Perfetti – Abbott Elementary
8- Ebon Moss Bachrach – The Bear1- Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
2- Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
3- Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
4- Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
5- Ayo Edebiri – The Bear
6- Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
7- Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
8- Lisa Ann Walter – Abbott ElementaryEarly Predictions (Series, Lead Actor & Lead Actress):
1. Ted Lasso
2. Abbott Elementary
3. Only Murders in the Building
4. Hacks
5. Barry
6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
7. The Bear
Final Place toss up: Curb Your Enthusiasm / Ramy / Wednesday / Dead To Me / The GreatActor:
1. Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
2. Bill Hader – Barry
3. Steve Martin – Only Murders
4. Martin Short – Only Murders
5. Jeremy Allen White – The Bear
Final Place toss up: Anthony Carrigan / Donald Glover / Ramy YoussefActress:
1. Jean Smart – Hacks
2. Rachel Broshanan – Mrs Maisel
3. Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
4. Selena Gomez – Only Murders
5. Christina Applegate – Dead to Me
Final Place toss up: Jenna Ortega / Linda Cardellini / Elle FanningFinal Place toss up: Anthony Carrigan / Donald Glover / Ramy Youssef
Hang on are we gettign 6 nominees or five?
Final Place toss up: Anthony Carrigan / Donald Glover / Ramy Youssef
Anthony is supporting
FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
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