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2023 Emmy Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 2)

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  • mf617
    Joined:
    Oct 17th, 2011
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    #1205181878

    We have the first instance of a show this season who will be directly affected by the new rules on hanging episodes! Unless it does a double premiere its season finale will be Emmy ineligible as it would air in June.

    Unless they are doing more than 10 episodes this season, the finale should be airing during the last week of May.


    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1205181908

    Unless they are doing more than 10 episodes this season, the finale should be airing during the last week of May.

    You are correct. Sorry for the mistake! For some reason I was counting 10 weeks after the premiere instead of including the premiere as week 1.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    mf617
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    #1205181974

    You are correct. Sorry for the mistake! For some reason I was counting 10 weeks after the premiere instead of including the premiere as week 1.

    All good! I would’ve been surprised if Showtime made such an error in not scheduling the premiere one week earlier if that were the case. I suspect we will see a lot of shows (or at least the traditional weekly releases) get slotted for that week as well since it is the last possible week to fit in a ten episode season under the new Emmy guidelines. HBO has availability on Sundays starting the week before on 3/19, so I have a feeling that’s when we will see “Succession” and “Barry” premiere since all signs have pointed to those shows making eligibility.


    Victor
    Joined:
    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1205182017

    Perry Mason March 6th
    I hope it can get some of the Succession crowd (which is crazy because the show had a higher linear rating than Succession for S10)

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!


    DeweyFinn
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    Jun 28th, 2022
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    #1205182089

    What do you guys think the chances are of Andor getting a nom for Best Drama Series now? The Critics Choice nom is definitely a nice indicator of it being seen and considered by awards shows and it’s placing very high in the Metacritic’s aggregate for the End of Year lists. Is there a path for it? Or will 2 StarWars shows just never happen?

    It seems like current contenders for a spot seem to be Better Call Saul, The Boys, House of the Dragon, The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale & Andor, with Succession, The Last of Us & The Mandalorian still to come out. So that would mean that Andor is atleast in the Top 9 contenders. Or have I missed any big ones? Probably.

    Is this a fool’s hope or can Andor actually make it?


    Victor
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    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1205182099

    What do you guys think the chances are of Andor getting a nom for Best Drama Series now?

    Seems like it’s one of *THE* buzzy show of the moment right now so very good.
    Of course we’ll have to wait for the spring, which include Mando, will be interesting to see if Disney can get two Star Wars shows in.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!


    Allan Veríssimo
    Joined:
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    #1205182137

    What do you guys think the chances are of Andor getting a nom for Best Drama Series now? The Critics Choice nom is definitely a nice indicator of it being seen and considered by awards shows and it’s placing very high in the Metacritic’s aggregate for the End of Year lists. Is there a path for it? Or will 2 StarWars shows just never happen? It seems like current contenders for a spot seem to be Better Call Saul, The Boys, House of the Dragon, The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale & Andor, with Succession, The Last of Us & The Mandalorian still to come out. So that would mean that Andor is atleast in the Top 9 contenders. Or have I missed any big ones? Probably. Is this a fool’s hope or can Andor actually make it?

    Right now, I would say the odds are good. As you said, Andor’s critical reception has been excellent, being featured on most best-of-the-year lists, and it has already received nominations at the Critics Choice Awards. It is quite possible that the series will be nominated for guilds and Golden Globes.

    The big hurdle is The Mandalorian, which is loved by Emmy voters and while it’s not impossible, I think it’s a little unlikely that voters would want to nominate two Star Wars series in the same year. Not to mention that there is an excess of fantasy/sci-fi/ series this year, such as House of the Dragon, The Last of Us, The Boys, The Lord of the Rings, etc. But there’s always a first time for everything.


    Couverture
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    Jun 16th, 2019
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    #1205182158

    Critics (Americans at least) tend to overrate Star Wars from my experience. The Force Awakens has an 80 on Metacritic, even Obi Wan Kenobi has a relatively high score in the 70s. The Mandalorian is largely a basic popcorn show that placed in the top ten of the critics aggregate for both of its seasons. So, Andor placing high, while not insignificant, isn’t as indicative of its potential to me as it would be for other shows. Doesn’t help that Mandalorian is most certainly going to suck up all the buzz next year and with HOTD and TLOU also in the race, it will be hard for it to emerge as a serious contender when it’s the 4th big budget genre show in the race.

    Its real test is the major guilds and if any of them bite. WGA is the likeliest so far imo and I still have it outside of my top 5 there.

    A Negroni. Sbagliato. With Prosecco in it.


    musterd
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    Jul 11th, 2011
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    #1205182229

    Agreed on Mando being Andor’s main obstacle – Disney may decide to prioritise one over the other for awards but I hope there’s room for Andor in the budget.

    I did see a fair few industry folks praising and commenting how much they loved Andor though eg Patton Oswalt, Winston Duke etc so hopefully Andor performs well over the winter award season which provides it with some momentum for the Emmys. Think people are still catching up with it as well over the holidays.


    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1205182234

    Andor‘s problem has always been whether the industry is paying as much attention as critics and the Star Wars fan base have been so I agree with Couverture that whilst its placement on the aggregate isn’t irrelevant that it doesn’t really feel like it is foreshadowing anything and that how it does at the guilds will be its real litmus test.

    I actually think the double CCA nominee that’s doing well on the aggregate that could be having a nice path set up for it is Bad Sisters. This is a show that is on AppleTV+ (whose only top 10 aggregate finisher prior to this year was Ted Lasso) and is an Irish female led black comedy and whilst its reviews were strong they weren’t particularly groundbreaking upon release. For it to be sitting in 8th on there and as the second highest AppleTV+ series after Severance in spite of there being such strong internal and external competition this year feels very telling. There were already signs of it having visible industry support and its audience scores skyrocketed after the finale going from a measly 7.7 on IMDB to an 8.3 score so the critical haul it has been amassing feels quite promising. Obviously though like Andor we’ll have to see how it performs with the guilds and other winter awards but I think if it is able to maintain the critical support it has amassed and the drama actress field continues to be as thin as it is that Sharon Horgan could become quite a compelling potential drama actress prediction. She’s a previous nominee after all for Catastrophe (albeit in writing) so she’s already more familiar to the Television Academy than quite a few of the lone acting nominee surprises we’ve had nominated in the past few years (Patel for Station Eleven being the first one that comes to mind).

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    kat_ebbs
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    #1205182277

    Critics (Americans at least) tend to overrate Star Wars from my experience. The Force Awakens has an 80 on Metacritic, even Obi Wan Kenobi has a relatively high score in the 70s. The Mandalorian is largely a basic popcorn show that placed in the top ten of the critics aggregate for both of its seasons. So, Andor placing high, while not insignificant, isn’t as indicative of its potential to me as it would be for other shows

    It is also worth pointing out it has a 10.88/1 split on male/female votes on IMDB – big male/female splits aren’t uncommon but even for a genre show, that’s extreme and for the most part skewing extremely young, old, male, or female doesn’t help a show on an unlimited ballot which values things being a bit more broad. (a 10.88 split will absolutely help it with critics though).

    It can happen but the mix of shows needs to be right and this year it probably means robbing Peter to pay Paul. That group is very overserviced by genre stuff this year.

     


    ejaru1810
    Joined:
    Sep 10th, 2021
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    #1205182286

    Yellowjackets S2 on March 26th


    jjjmoss
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2016
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    #1205182627

    dragon peeps on ig

    milly 1.4m

    olivia 0.8m

    emma 0.7m

    emily 0.6m

    No sansa/dany/arya level stars here as of yet.


    kat_ebbs
    Joined:
    Jun 10th, 2021
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    #1205182757

    No sansa/dany/arya level stars here as of yet.

    I don’t necessarily think it matters (Julia Garner has won three Emmys with a pretty small IG following an actress her age) but I will say I do think one of the problems might be that they’re all rather close in age and it’s not necessarily clear the one or the other has grabbed a particular demo.


    Drama King
    Joined:
    Dec 5th, 2021
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    #1205182981

    Billy Crudup’s Hello Tomorrow! Gets Premiere Date at Apple TV+ — See ‘Retro-Future’ Dramedy’s First Photos

    Hello Tomorrow! with Billy Crudup is coming February 17, and although it was initially described as a comedy, it now seems to be listed by Apple as a drama (https://tv.apple.com/us/show/hello-tomorrow/umc.cmc.6lknbhv5dcfx8lfe8ghqmy4ma) – I wonder how long the episodes are.

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