-
-
Ewan McGregor won for a baity audience friendly Ryan Murphy biopic that was also the most underseen show in his category and therefore the one swing voters who were catching up on all the shows before casting their ballots were likely to watch just before they voted. This year he’s in the opposite boat with everyone having seen Obi-Wan Kenobi in June and very few people seeming to have cared about the acting on the show.
I think the dark horse here is someone who could be in a similar position to McGregor that year who has a very juicy and showy performance in an under-seen show that a small but significant enough amount of voters get round to watching just before voting. Someone who is untested compared to the other frontrunners in the field. That could be someone from the Spring but I’m starting to think it could be Daniel Radcliffe if he gets in. It would be weird for him to be the first person to win for a TV Movie in almost a decade but Weird has been over-performing relative to how TV movies usually perform at the other awards (it lost WGA to Honor Society but that film’s writer was the president of WGA-West so that feels somewhat understandable) and I feel like Roku have been very strategic in their campaigning of it. Would love it if it were Whishaw but sadly I don’t think This is Going to Hurt has enough visibility to make the cut in the first place in spite of its immense passion (although I am more and more considering it as a writing nominee à la Girls5Eva seeing how much that category has been emptying out with each passing week).
Solidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
Ewan McGregor won for a baity audience friendly Ryan Murphy biopic that was also the most underseen show in his category and therefore the one swing voters who were catching up on all the shows before casting their ballots were likely to watch just before they voted. This year he’s in the opposite boat with everyone having seen Obi-Wan Kenobi in June and very few people seeming to have cared about the acting on the show. I think the dark horse here is someone who could be in a similar position to McGregor that year who has a very juicy and showy performance in an under-seen show that a small but significant enough amount of voters get round to watching just before voting. Someone who is untested compared to the other frontrunners in the field. That could be someone from the Spring but I’m starting to think it could be Daniel Radcliffe if he gets in. It would be weird for him to be the first person to win for a TV Movie in almost a decade but Weird has been over-performing relative to how TV movies usually perform at the other awards (it lost WGA to Honor Society but that film’s writer was the president of WGA-West so that feels somewhat understandable) and I feel like Roku have been very strategic in their campaigning of it. Would love it if it were Whishaw but sadly I don’t think This is Going to Hurt has enough visibility to make the cut in the first place in spite of its immense passion (although I am more and more considering it as a writing nominee à la Girls5Eva seeing how much that category has been emptying out with each passing week).
I’m not a big fan but could this not be what happens with Sweeney on the female side? Given prior noms history and the topic nature of Reality could she not come up on the rails and suprise
Winners Predix:
- Series: Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
- Actor: Evan Peters, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
- Actress: Elizabeth Olsen, Love and Death
- Supporting Actor: Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
- Supporting Actress: Niecy Nash-Betts, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
- Directing: Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
- Writing: Love and Death
Letterboxd: Brayfers
!EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!
- SEVEN OSCARS
- BEST PICTURE
- Michelle Yeoh, Best Actress
- Ke Huy Quan, Best Supporting Actor
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Best Supporting Actress
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Best Director & Best Original Screenplay
- Paul Rogers, Best Film EditingFYC (TV):
- Abbott Elementary
- House of the Dragon
- The White Lotus
- The Last of UsI really don’t think Dahmer can get 4/7 awards
I also don’t know how likely it is that every ATL Limited Series Emmy award goes to a show about a murderer…
And honestly, after its shoddy guild performance (Peters losing SAG and the show losing PGA are both pretty baffling losses given that both awards bodies are historically populist), I don’t feel good predicting Dahmer to win anything ATL. Right now I think I’d predict:
Series: White House Plumbers
Actor: Daniel Radcliffe – Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Actress: Jessica Chastain – George & Tammy
Supporting Actor: Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird
Supporting Actress: Claire Danes – Fleishman Is in Trouble
Writing – Fleishman Is in Trouble
Directing: White House PlumbersWHP winning just Series and Directing is a weird combo but I don’t buy any other show as a winner at the moment and I don’t think I buy it winning anything else ATL besides Writing.
FYC:
Succession, Industry, Ted Lasso, Dead to Me, and Fleishman Is in Trouble in all categories!White House Plumbers and Full Circle are the only major contenders yet to announce their release date, right? If they don’t announce it in the first week of April, I doubt they will be released this cycle.
Given the type of program White House Plumbers (crafts heavy, older audience) is I have to presume it is either low priority or missing if we don’t hear about it by maybe the end of the week.
Shows that want any degree of linear press (magazines, etc) still need to make physical print deadlines.
I hope Beef goes limited to be honest.
It’s kind of unbelievable how weak the supporting categories are looking right now.. and that’s not even counting the possibility of some contenders being pushed until the next cycle.
This is the CVE (i.e completed views equivalent, aka minutes watched vs length) that you see some analysts using for first season/limited Nielsen rated series for this cycle (there are others, but they’re all straight commercial)
It is highly unlikely that you only get a couple of noms out of the five best seen limited series of the cycle.
1. Wednesday 60.6
2. The Watcher 22.1
3. Dahmer 18.8
4. The Last of Us (inc linear Nielsen) 16.1
5. House of The Dragon (inc linear Nielsen) 15.6
6. Obi-Wan Kenobi 15.3
7. The Rings of Power 14.5
8. She Hulk 10.1
9. The Terminal List 9.4
10. The Sandman 9.1
11. Andor 7.3
12. From Scratch: 6.8
13. Poker Face 5.5
14. Cabinet of Curiosities 4.3
Note: Daisy should make this? and possibly Swarm? but it’s too early to tell.
This Jessica talk has gotten out of hand
She won the Oscar in a fluke and she’s at best third for the Emmy and barely a contender for the Tony. She’s a great actress but she’s not Triple Crown level yet. Girl…
She was one of the most acclaimed performances of that year and won two precursors before the Oscar, she was nominated for the Globe and won at SAG for G&T and is currently the overwhelming frontrunner to win the Emmy, and she’s almost a lock for the Tony (though with them you can never be totally sure) and competitive for the win alongside Jodie Comer (although, again, they can be random sometimes). What kinda delusional, bizarro world are you living in?
Emmys FYC:
Comedy: The Bear, Cunk on Earth, Only Murders in the Building, Reservation Dogs
Drama: The Last of Us, Stranger Things
Limited/Movie:
And of course McGregor can at least be nominated or one of the supporting contenders can. It should be clear by now that large swathes of the TV academy are highly enamoured with Star Wars.
This is the CVE (i.e completed views equivalent, aka minutes watched vs length) that you see some analysts using for first season/limited Nielsen rated series for this cycle (there are others, but they’re all straight commercial) It is highly unlikely that you only get a couple of noms out of the five best seen limited series of the cycle. 1. Wednesday 60.6 2. The Watcher 22.1 3. Dahmer 18.8 4. The Last of Us (inc linear Nielsen) 16.1 5. House of The Dragon (inc linear Nielsen) 15.6 6. Obi-Wan Kenobi 15.3 7. The Rings of Power 14.5 8. She Hulk 10.1 9. The Terminal List 9.4 10. The Sandman 9.1 11. Andor 7.3 12. From Scratch: 6.8 13. Poker Face 5.5 14. Cabinet of Curiosities 4.3 Note: Daisy should make this? and possibly Swarm? but it’s too early to tell.
Did Ginny & Georgia, Outer Banks, and That 90s Show not do well? Or is this just a list of prospective awards contenders?
Emmys FYC:
Comedy: The Bear, Cunk on Earth, Only Murders in the Building, Reservation Dogs
Drama: The Last of Us, Stranger Things
Limited/Movie:
Did Ginny & Georgia, Outer Banks, and That 90s Show not do well? Or is this just a list of prospective awards contenders?
This is just first seasons that are in the prediction centre over 3m. You can’t really do CVE past first season because second season viewership is variable. That 90s Show would have made it most definitively, it was a huge domestic (but not international) hit.
I think the perception is that Dahmer is the most watched but it’s a) really long and b) was a much bigger hit overseas (which might explain the BAFTA nomination)
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I think at this stage, Nash is just winning bt default unless Fleishman proves to be strong.
I think so too , especially because she won the Critics and had a sag nomination.But I don’t think the 7th episode of Fleishman was out at the time of voting and might have hindered Danes chances.
Also having seen both shows, Danes should be CLEARING.
The topic ‘2023 Emmy Predictions: Limited/Movie Categories (Part 4)’ is closed to new replies.
