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Emmys 2021 Comedy Predictions (Part 9)

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    methaddiction
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    #1204465961

    Brett is #1 in the odds now 

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    Eden
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    What’s the most likely comedy directing/writing combo? I currently have Hacks taking both, which doesn’t make sense completely. I’m willing to switch writing to Ted Lasso, but it could easily go the other way and I end up going 0/2.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204466020

    I feel way more confident in Lasso taking writing

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    wolfali
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    #1204466061

    What’s the most likely comedy directing/writing combo? I currently have Hacks taking both, which doesn’t make sense completely. I’m willing to switch writing to Ted Lasso, but it could easily go the other way and I end up going 0/2.

    I’ve gone with Lasso in writing and Hacks in directing. “Make Rebecca Great Again” is one of the consensus standouts of Ted Lasso‘s first season and the fact the show managed to over-come an editing vote-split whilst Schitt’s Creek couldn’t last year and still over-came a writing split gives me confidence that the show is strong enough to over-come one in writing (that being said Hacks is a stronger contender than The Good Place was last year so I could be wrong).

    I’ve had Hacks in directing since the predictions centre opened and I’m just going to stick with it until the winner’s name is read. Ted Lasso feels like it’s in a very Watchmen-esque situation in the category (two standout episodes competing against one another, a third weaker episode that still has a lot of strong things going for it). The Flight Attendant beat it at DGA but it feels like a much weaker contender than it was back in the winter and the fact it couldn’t even benefit from an editing vote-split is concerning. Hacks feels a bit like in the Unorthodox position where its direction isn’t necessarily the strongest aspect of the show (nor is it the “showiest”) but it’s the clear but distant series runner up and the directing categories disproportionately ties in with the series ones.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Victor
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    #1204466322

    Brett is #1 in the odds now

    I remember last year when Paul Mescal surpassed Mark Ruffalo at the last minute
    The jinx hun

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    methaddiction
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    #1204466344

    I remember last year when Paul Mescal surpassed Mark Ruffalo at the last minute The jinx hun

     

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    Ryusei
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    #1204466399

    https://www.awardsdaily.com/2021/09/16/2021-emmy-confidential-the-veteran-actor/ 💀💀

    Some of these voting reasons… we really expect too much out of the voters sometimes don’t we.

    FYC: Lead Actress - Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204466424

    What I don’t understand is why Biscuits is #1 for Directing among the Ted Lasso episodes (maybe even overall?) in the prediction centre. It’s the least popular episode of the 3 nominated and I highly doubt that Zach Braff’s name alone will be enough to secure him a win.

    I think it’s a classic Goldderby case of people who did their predictions early ranking all of the Ted Lasso episodes together and then others who joined later not questioning the order.

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    forwardswill
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    Consider all three series races locks at this point (same for Drama Writing and Limited Directing) so won’t be posting my rankings on those.

    Would love for someone to swing me one way or the other on Comedy Directing and Writing though. Current rankings:

    DIRECTING
    1. “In Case of Emergency” – Won DGA against votesplitting Ted Laso
    2. “The Hope That Kills You” – Just won editing. The most directed.
    3. “Make Rebecca Great Again” – Most acclaimed episode.
    4. “There is No Line” – Not a clear directing achievement. It tends to be series winners that break that trend as part of a sweep. This isn’t winning series so is not comparable to Fleabag or Schitt’s Creek.
    5. “Biscuits” – Name recognition but does anyone care about the episode
    6/7. Multicams

    WRITING
    1. “Make Rebecca Great Again” – Most acclaimed episode. Expect the writers to join the Ted Lasso party. Think the passion for the show far outstrips Hacks.
    2. “There is No Line” – Ready to capitalise if there is a votesplit.
    3. “Pilot” (TL) – An easy default for Ted Lasso fans
    4. “Play” – The show with the critical attention. Outside chance but not one I’m taking especially seriously.
    5. “Pilot” (G5E) – No other nominations
    6. “In Case of Emergency” – Not very writerly. Would need to be winning series.

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    Victor
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    #1204467505

    I would love In Case of Emergency to win, I’ve followed everyone with the Hacks pick but I’m not so sure.

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    Eden
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    #1204467533

    Comedy directing and writing are giving me a heartache, so maybe that’s why I’m overthinking it needlessly and it will only result in wrong predictions.

    I’ll start with what we know from previous years.

    – The last three Comedy Series winners (Mrs. Maisel, Fleabag and Schitt’s Creek) won both Directing and Writing. [point for Ted Lasso]

    – However, they won with a single nominated episode, except in the case of Schitt’s Creek, where its series finale took Writing despite internal competition. [a disadvantage for Ted Lasso because of multiple episodes nominated]

    – The two years before that, comedy winner Veep had multiple directing and writing nominations and lost to contenders with one episode nominated. [points for The Flight Attendant and Hacks in both categories]

    – Here’s the big thing: the last five Directing winners didn’t face internal competition. More interestingly, heavy-hitters lost because of it. Fleabag won over double Barry and Mrs. Maisel episodes. [points for The Flight Attendant and Hacks in Directing]

    – On the other hand, every directing winner also won casting, which makes this year’s race even more confusing. [point for Ted Lasso]

    The trick is to guess which Ted Lasso episode is the standout, but I’m not sure we’re doing a good job. “Biscuits” is inexplicably considered the frontrunner.

    There’s one thinking I’m going with, which might be controversial. “Biscuits” and “The Hope that Kills You” were nominated at the DGA and couldn’t overcome vote-splitting, but now we are predicting Ted Lasso to overcome internal competition out of three episodes? I’ve convinced myself that Fogel’s win was due to two other comedies having double episodes and therefore, she doesn’t have strong passion today, especially after so many months. In conclusion, I’m going with Hacks.

    Writing is somewhat easier. Since 2010, only 30 Rock and Schitt’s Creek won despite multiple episodes nominated and both wins were for their series finales. Otherwise, 2009 was the last time a comedy series won Writing with internal competition (30 Rock with four episodes). We don’t have a series finale, but four pilot episodes, which doesn’t help, but it does help Ted Lasso. My gut tells me Hacks, but not predicting either directing or writing for Ted Lasso feels wrong.

    I wish we had better arguments to predict Directing for Ted Lasso and Writing for Hacks, since that makes more sense, but here we are.

    Edit: If I had to choose Ted Lasso in both categories, I’d go with “Pilot” in Writing and “The Hope That Kills You” in Directing.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204468204

    On the other hand, every directing winner also won casting, which makes this year’s race even more confusing. [point for Ted Lasso]

    I don’t think this is correct, Veep won Casting every year it won Series but it never won Directing. The two have only been linked since Directing started going to Series winners.

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    wolfali
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    #1204468210

    Casting most of the time tends to go hand in hand with directing as the branch now also votes on it (so sometimes they just default to their favourite show) however in the instances it doesn’t, the winner in casting has either been a casting branch passion pick (When They See Us, Stranger Things) or the casting winner has split its votes in directing.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Eden
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    #1204468960

    I don’t think this is correct, Veep won Casting every year it won Series but it never won Directing. The two have only been linked since Directing started going to Series winners.

    Yes, sorry, that refers to the last three Comedy winners.

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    Ryusei
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    #1204469079

    Consider all three series races locks at this point (same for Drama Writing and Limited Directing) 

    First-time winners only this year. Netflix (finally) and Apple joining the club of series winning streaming services. Now watch both Netflix shows get upset cause they just can’t catch a break.

     

    FYC: Lead Actress - Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

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