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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 11)

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    wolfali
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    #1204357670

    How is the show being underestimated? GoldDerby odds literally have it winning 6/7 Drama prizes with even Menzies in second for the one it is currently predicted to lose.

    I’m talking about these boards.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Luca
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    #1204357681

    Yeah, The Crown was never really underestimated. We literally had a conversation about Marion Bailey potentially making it, so… I do agree that people are writing off Emma and Josh a bit too quickly now though.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204357693

    I’m talking about these boards.

    Even then. Most of these boards predicted Erin Doherty, which didn’t happen. And pretty much no one on here was predicting it to get less than it did. Sure, you can argue some are starting to underestimate it but that’s definitely not been the case for the season as a whole.

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    wolfali
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    #1204357697

    At the start of the season it was that Gillian Anderson couldn’t win at the winter awards because Meryl Streep lost them for Big Little Lies. Then it was that Josh O’Connor can’t win because he’s playing a role that is villainous (we seem to have stumbled back on that one now). Then it was that the show can’t win at WGA because it doesn’t have as much passion from writers as something like Better Call Saul. Then it was that Emma Corrin is a lock to lose because she missed a competitive BAFTA field and that its BAFTA under-performance is “proof” it is only winning drama series because of a weak field. And now if it loses directing it will be because neither of its directors are big names.

    Of course people have been considering it for the win and the odds have reflected that but throughout the entire season all sorts of excuses and arguments that have been rather baseless have popped up on here as to why the show is “weak”. It doesn’t matter so much considering the show is essentially locked for two if not three above the line wins at this point but I guess all I’m trying to say is that its tiring at this point. If say O’Connor and Corrin lose it’s because of someone like Rodriguez or Porter’s strength, not their own weaknesses.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204357704

    I’d still say most people here have (fairly) been putting forward theories as to why it could lose some categories rather than actually underestimating it in them.

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    Luca
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    #1204357712

    Well, I also remember a time when we said Elisabeth Moss could miss drama actress and that Samira, Bradley and Alexis would be the only acting noms for THT. 💀💀 That’s underestimating! But even so, the predictions were (somewhat) justified at the time, just like (some of) those Crown-related predictions you mentioned.

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    wolfali
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    #1204357725

    That’s underestimating, but even so, the predictions were somewhat justified at the same, just as those Crown-related predictions you mentioned.

    I guess so. But I still find it weird seeing arguments for O’Connor losing purely because he plays a villain (considering he won two winter awards in spite of this and got in at both the BAFTAs and SAG) or the show losing directing because it lacks a big name behind it (considering that didn’t really hurt four out of the six previous winners in this category).

    I’m obviously not saying it is locked to win either of those categories (hell I’m questioning whether the show can win either or both of them) but both the justification for those aforementioned arguments has been a little puzzling.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Luca
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    #1204357737

    I agree that the villain argument is tired — especially when we’re about to reward Margaret Thatcher (again) on the same night. 💀

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    methaddiction
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    #1204357739

    I agree that the villain argument is tired — especially when we’re about to reward Margaret Thatcher (again) on the same night. 💀

    Alexander sweeping for playing a rapist threw that argument out the window.

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    walkinuniverse
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    #1204357755

    I’m curious do some people here think that it would look bad optics for Josh to win for playing a villain-y character without Emma winning for playing Princess Diana?

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    forwardswill
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    #1204357759

    I also find the villain argument for O’Connor quite bizarre. To me, his real hindrance is that the passion for his performance overall has been relatively secondary. By which I mean that Anderson and Corrin have sucked so much of the buzz for the show towards themselves that O’Connor is frequently seen as a follow up thought. With SAG as well, we’ve already seen how O’Connor can lose even with the show otherwise doing brilliantly. And not only lose but lose to a performance that is yet to be able to win at the Emmys.

    This theory is not without its flaws though. After all, similar logic regarding the balance of passion was made pre Globes and look what happened there. That’s precisely why I think he can still absolutely win. Right now though I’m leaning away from him because I cannot see past Porter as a more popular performer, a showier performance and one with buzz at precisely the right time. Moreover, I just cannot see Corrin losing and O’Connor winning so as long as I have Rodriguez my instincts tell me to avoid O’Connor.

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    wolfali
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    #1204357762

    I’m curious do some people here think that it would look bad optics for Josh to win for playing a villain-y character without Emma winning for playing Princess Diana?

    Personally I don’t think it’s bad optics per se. It’s more that Corrin’s performance is at the crux of The Crown‘s buzz this season and it feels weird to predict her to lose but O’Connor to win (similar thing with Porter winning and Rodriguez losing when a lot of buzz this season seems to be on her). It almost feels like predicting Sam Rockwell to win for Fosse/Verdon without Michelle Williams.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204357766

    Corrin and O’Connor are strong but they aren’t the locks they have been presented to be for months, imo. Also the argument of them being in the series winner is quite weak for me when their categories, especially Lead Actress, have had little crossover with the series winner this past decade (only Danes and Moss).

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    walkinuniverse
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    #1204357770

    Personally I don’t think it’s bad optics per se. It’s more that Corrin’s performance is at the crux of The Crown‘s buzz this season and it feels weird to predict her to lose but O’Connor to win (similar thing with Porter winning and Rodriguez losing when a lot of buzz this season seems to be on her). It almost feels like predicting Sam Rockwell to win for Fosse/Verdon without Michelle Williams.

    I agree it feels weird but I was just curious about the reasoning behind people who predict Emma to lose but not O’Connor. If the reason is in relation with MJ‘s buzz then I think its fair.

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    Ryusei
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    Sep 8th, 2020
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    #1204357790

    I’m curious do some people here think that it would look bad optics for Josh to win for playing a villain-y character without Emma winning for playing Princess Diana?

    It would be bad optics if Josh O’Connor was an asshole/creep/criminal irl. It’s acting. Acting.

    Lemme throw in a non-Charles gif of Josh to cleanse the palate
    null

    FYC: Lead Actress - Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

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