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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 11)

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    estrelas
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    #1204357816

    Corrin and O’Connor are strong but they aren’t the locks they have been presented to be for months, imo. Also the argument of them being in the series winner is quite weak for me when their categories, especially Lead Actress, have had little crossover with the series winner this past decade (only Danes and Moss).

    That’s one of those stats that will eventually be broken and imo it’s a borderline weak one. You have to look up that until 2015, acting winners were chosen under a tape system, so it’s quite understandable as to why the lead acting categories had little crossover with the series winner. And from 2015 on, Game of Thrones won 4 series Emmys. Two of those times they didn’t have lead actors, for season 7 neither Kit nor Emilia got nominated and they were never going to win lead for the final season. It was a panned season, not to mention the acting branch never cared for any of the performances outside of Dinklage. And then the other two winners actually won, at least, a lead Emmy. The Handmaid’s Tale won for Moss (no lead actor in contention) and Successiom won for Strong (no lead actress in contention).

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204357826

    I didn’t say it as a stat, it’s just an argument that has been thrown around multiple times and that I don’t think is particularly relevant when they have been choosing winners that aren’t in the series winner. Of course we will have another Danes/Moss and it could be Corrin, but if she wins I think it’s more thanks to her performance and passion rather than being in what wins Series. Also yes SAG looks less and less relevant, but it is still a place where they awarded The Crown with the top price and didn’t care about the Charles/Diana pairing.

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    wolfali
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    #1204357828

    It was a panned season, not to mention the acting branch never cared for any of the performances outside of Dinklage.

    Likewise their performances weren’t as buzzed about as either Corrin’s or O’Connor’s and they lost to contenders in shows that arguably had more actors branch support (Killing Eve got three acting nominations and was essentially third at worst in series) and performances that had more buzz and acclaim. Of course Corrin and O’Connor are facing Rodriguez and Porter but if they lose and Gillian Anderson ends up being the only Crown actor to win, it isn’t going to be for the same reasons.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    GODlore
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    #1204357908

    Also the argument of them being in the series winner is quite weak for me when their categories, especially Lead Actress, have had little crossover with the series winner this past decade (only Danes and Moss).

    Not as weak as this point when we’ve barely had female led drama winners this past decade. That’s like holding the lack of crossover between comedy series and comedy lead actor as a negative against Sudeikis when everyone would agree him being in the series winner gives him a significant edge (not that it would matter seeing how far ahead he is anyway).

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    GODlore
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    #1204357930

    Likewise their performances weren’t as buzzed about as either Corrin’s or O’Connor’s and they lost to contenders in shows that arguably had more actors branch support (Killing Eve got three acting nominations and was essentially third at worst in series) and performances that had more buzz and acclaim. Of course Corrin and O’Connor are facing Rodriguez and Porter but if they lose and Gillian Anderson ends up being the only Crown actor to win, it isn’t going to be for the same reasons.

    Acting nominations for Game of Thrones S8: 10

    Acting nominations for Killing Eve S1-3 and Pose S1-3 combined: 11

    I do agree with the rest though.

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    wolfali
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    #1204357940

    Acting nominations for Game of Thrones S8: 10 Acting nominations for Killing Eve S1-3 and Pose S1-3 combined: 11 I do agree with the rest though.

    Just because a show has a lot of acting nominations, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has more branch support. Game of Thrones is an ensemble based show and was the series winner. It’s not that difficult for it to get multiple acting nominations. Killing Eve was essentially a two person show in its first two seasons, got Fiona Shaw nominated in a field of six for essentially sitting in a chair and more importantly Comer overcame a vote-split in actress after Oh swept the winter awards.

    Game of Thrones by comparison only won for one actor and most of those four wins had little to do with the show itself.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
    Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva B

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204358044

    Emilia Clarke is the only person who has been nominated in lead actress for a drama series winner and lost and that’s a perfectly explainable loss.

    Is it though? Putting opinions on that performance and season aside (which don’t necessarily reflect members of the Academy), Clarke’s character arc was the most talked about thing that season. There was probably 10x the thinkpieces on that than Corrin’s performance as Diana.

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    estrelas
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    #1204358054

    Is it though? Putting opinions on that performance and season aside (which don’t necessarily reflect members of the Academy), Clarke’s character arc was the most talked about thing that season. There was probably 10x the thinkpieces on that than Corrin’s performance as Diana.

    It is quite explainable. The acting branch never really liked the show that much outside of Dinklage, the season was panned (and so was her character arc) and Jodie had far more passion and acclaim than her.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204358084

    It is. The acting branch never really liked the show that much outside of Dinklage, the season was panned (and so was her character arc) and Jodie had far more passion and acclaim than her.

    Fair (trying to play devil’s advocate), although I often wonder if the opinions of the acting branch necessarily reflected the general press sentiment given how many noms they ended up with. But that’s probably not the point here.

    For what it’s worth, I suspect Corrin’s going to win. My biggest problem with Corrin (and Joy, and to a lesser extent Rege-Jean Page) is I am just over them. None of them are returning Netflix actors and there’s only so much they can say.

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    GODlore
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    #1204358156

    Just because a show has a lot of acting nominations, it doesn’t necessarily mean it has more branch support.

    I think it is when that’s more than any show in nearly two decades or more than what the mentioned shows will accumulate in their entire runs.

    Killing Eve was essentially a two person show in its first two seasons, got Fiona Shaw nominated in a field of six for essentially sitting in a chair and more importantly Comer overcame a vote-split in actress after Oh swept the winter awards.

    I mean you can ask what did Alfie Allen do to get nominated? Surely BAFTA nominated Kim Bodnia could’ve replaced him if Killing Eve had as much support as being claimed? Especially when GoT was already represented there multiple times. At least Fiona Shaw is a respected veteran with an industry win for the same role, unlike people like Allen or Turner.

    Game of Thrones by comparison only won for one actor and most of those four wins had little to do with the show itself.

    Dinklage is not the kind of Emmy or awards darling he is made out to be. His wins were mostly because of his character so I’d say the show did play a role there. He didn’t win because he is Peter Dinklage, he won because he is playing Tyrion Lannister in Game of Thrones.

    If it was anyone whose show held little significance in their wins, it’d be Oh imo.

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    Victor
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    #1204358218

    It’s just weird to me predict O’Connor to win alongside MJ (who i think will win).
    I also don’t have much faith on Billy Porter because the Emmys are avoiding repeats win lately, so idk, a combo of MJ and O’Connor feels weird as hell to me.

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    Luca
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    #1204358221

    Josh winning without Emma feels wrong in general.

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    JV
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    #1204358276

    Josh winning without Emma feels wrong in general.

    I thought his acting was much better than hers (I liked her too), and I also think he should win because of his wonderful work in Season 3.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204358318

    a combo of MJ and O’Connor feels weird as hell to me.

    When we get something weirder like Moss and Porter

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    Luca
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    #1204358326

    When we get something weirder like Moss and Porter

    This would literally be perfect. My two winners. Let’s make it happen! 😊

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