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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 11)

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    Luca
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    #1204362167

    Elisabeth Moss’ only problem is that she’s already won, and I hate that that’s her hurdle. Voters obvs watched this season, which should actually be enough to convince me that Elisabeth would win, but voters have not gone back to the well a single time in drama actress under this new system yet. If she couldn’t repeat for S2, why would she now?

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    wolfali
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    #1204362169

    Olivia is not winning this year. Not only did she lose momentum when she lost at the winter awards to Emma but also whilst she is arguably overdue for an Emmy, this isn’t going to be prevalent on voters minds when in the past three years she’s won an Oscar, a BAFTA, two Golden Globes, a Critics Choice award and this past film awards season has received all but one of those nominations all of those nominations again.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    wolfali
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    #1204362182

    Elisabeth Moss’ only problem is that she’s already won, and I hate that that’s her hurdle. Voters obvs watched this season, which should actually be enough to convince me that Elisabeth would win. But voters have not gone back to the well a single time in drama actress under this new system yet. If she couldn’t repeat for S2, why would she now?

    With Moss and Porter I just feel like if someone like Julia Louis-Dreyfus couldn’t repeat for her final season when she had such a strong narrative and buzzed performance because Veep wasn’t a strong series contender and Fleabag swept, then why would they when they couldn’t even repeat after their season 1 wins?

    I feel like repeats are quite rare in general at the Emmys anyway. Sure we’ve had Garner, Hader and Borstein repeating under this system but when you look at how wide open the fields they were facing were and how their shows seemed to be stronger contenders during their second wins (or at least stronger in actors support in Borstein’s case), those repeats aren’t too shocking.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Luca
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    #1204362186

    With Moss and Porter I just feel like if someone like Julia Louis-Dreyfus couldn’t repeat for her final season when she had such a strong narrative and buzzed performance because Veep wasn’t a strong series contender and Fleabag swept, then why would they when they couldn’t even repeat after their season 1 wins? I feel like repeats are quite rare in general at the Emmys anyway. Sure we’ve had Garner, Hader and Borstein repeating under this system but when you look at how wide open the fields they were facing were and how their shows seemed to be stronger contenders during their second wins (or at least stronger in actors support in Borstein’s case), those repeats aren’t too shocking.

    Using JLD is quite ironic since she won six times in a row, loll. I also think the supporting categories are just different. I would be very, very happy if that ridiculous trend in the drama lead categories was broken this year. The award is “Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series,” not “Outstanding Actress Who’s Never Won in a Drama Series.”

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    Bee
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    Oct 25th, 2016
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    #1204362196

    Olivia Colman isn’t even close to winning. She doesn’t have the performance and that Oscar win is old news. It didn’t even help her for Fleabag or last year for The Crown.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204362210

    With Moss and Porter I just feel like if someone like Julia Louis-Dreyfus couldn’t repeat for her final season when she had such a strong narrative and buzzed performance because Veep wasn’t a strong series contender and Fleabag swept, then why would they when they couldn’t even repeat after their season 1 wins?

    I feel if you take that narrative you can apply it to Porter but less so to Moss. Handmaid’s is significantly stronger than S1 and it’s possible her S1 win had some level of hangover-from-Mad-Men element to it. This year it’s all Handmaids.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204362216

    Using JLD is quite ironic since she won six times in a row, loll. I also think the supporting categories are just different. I would be very, very happy if that ridiculous trend in the drama lead categories was broken this year. The award is “Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series,” not “Outstanding Actress Who’s Never Won in a Drama Series.”

    Yeah but what I meant more was that it’s difficult to win again without your show being win competitive in series (which probably helped JLD considering how from the year the voting system changed, Veep won series every year she won) and that it’s quite difficult to repeat when one has such strong competition (which both Moss and Porter have this year).

    Also just want to say that I absolutely agree with you that the trend in drama actress is ridiculous. I don’t actually have any repeat winners in this category in my personal awards but I just find the whole notion that because something or someone has already won before that it should not win again to be quite ridiculous. If a creative deserves a second or a third win for their work on a show, then they deserve it.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    wolfali
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    #1204362238

    I feel if you take that narrative you can apply it to Porter but less so to Moss. Handmaid’s is significantly stronger than S1 and it’s possible her S1 win had some level of hangover-from-Mad-Men element to it. This year it’s all Handmaids.

    I feel like both Porter and Moss are lacking what the other has. Porter has a narrative and I’m sure he has the performance but outside of Gold Derby it’s almost as if he has no buzz. Rodriguez has taken up all the talk when it comes to Pose. She’s the one who made it in with eight slots at TCA and not him. There seems to be a lot of excitement around her nomination whilst it feels as if there’s been less passion or excitement about him post nominations this season than there were for the previous two. Likewise whilst Moss certainly has buzz, there doesn’t really seem to be any narrative for her to win (which is something she had for her first win but ultimately lacked for her second). She isn’t really overdue and The Handmaid’s Tale isn’t winning drama series. That being said I think I would probably be predicting both to win if this were the tape system.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Bee
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    Oct 25th, 2016
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    #1204362246

    I think repeats usually happen when either the competition is quite weak with no new ingenue (hence Julia Garner or Peter Dinklage winning) or there is no huge frontrunner or buzzy new contender (Julianna Marguiles won again with a baity tape). Either way, it gives voters an excuse to be lazy. Elisabeth Moss had her moment already and I don’t see a narrative for her to win again in any way other than The Handmaid’s Tale did great in noms.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204362252

    Honestly, Hulu should send Emmy voters whistles and have that be the entire THT campaign. People who’ve seen the season will understand the reference. 🙂

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204362257

    Speaking of Margulies, do you guys think she would have still won under the current voting system?

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    mateil
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    Aug 23rd, 2017
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    #1204362282

    I feel like both Porter and Moss are lacking what the other has. Porter has a narrative and I’m sure he has the performance but outside of Gold Derby it’s almost as if he has no buzz. Rodriguez has taken up all the talk when it comes to Pose. She’s the one who made it in with eight slots at TCA and not him. There seems to be a lot of excitement around her nomination whilst it feels as if there’s been less passion or excitement about him post nominations this season than there were for the previous two. Likewise whilst Moss certainly has buzz, there doesn’t really seem to be any narrative for her to win (which is something she had for her first win but ultimately lacked for her second). She isn’t really overdue and The Handmaid’s Tale isn’t winning drama series. That being said I think I would probably be predicting both to win if this were the tape system.

    The thing about past winners is that they don’t really need that much buzz to win again. How buzzed about were Dinklage in 2019 and Julia Garner in 2020?

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204362291

    How buzzed about were Dinklage in 2019 and Julia Garner in 2020?

    They were the incumbent winners and both of them had wide open fields (Garner’s category had no frontrunner and Dinklage’s main competition was from Jonathan Banks in a show that hasn’t won a single Emmy). Porter and Moss are facing strong competition.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Atypical
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    Dec 1st, 2011
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    #1204362309

    Repeat winners can’t both be uninspired decisions made by lazy, unimaginative voters and inspired choices that show that they’re watching everything and aren’t biased to the newest, shiny, sparkly thing. It’s either or, and in reality, these decisions sadly aren’t being made with the care and nuance that we would like them to be on a popular vote. The tape system was just as bad in different ways.

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    hopelesstar
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    Mar 10th, 2020
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    #1204362344

    Speaking of Margulies, do you guys think she would have still won under the current voting system?

    No I think it would have been Kerry Washington for Scandal. 2014 was the show’s peak and when ABC created TGIT and campaigned it non stop so the show was basically talked about during the whole summer.

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