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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 12)

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    Victor
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    #1204365252

    For me to not overthink things I have to predict The Crown going 7/7 or doing and Olive Kitteridge, and right now I’m seeing several flags in it’s acting categories with only Gillian Anderson as a safe bet.
    If we’re talking Schitts Creek, that show build a super ultra mega momentum on july-august, i believe I saw like several videos of them with millions of views and a handful of A-Listers pretty much campaigning for them (i.e. Mariah Carey). I can’t see that for The Crown right now.

    I’m not saying it won’t win for Emma/Josh or even Tobias, I’m just saying that thinking about it at this point makes sense.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204365270

    Yes Emma Corrin can still be our winner, but starting an argument comparing Rodriguez to people who were undoubtedly weaker than her is off.

    Not undoubtedly weaker or even weaker at all.  Ramy missed series, but so many of these passion picks did.  Not knowing that Schitt’s Creek was headed for the biggest comedy sweep ever, Eugene Levy looked weaker than Emma Corrin, with his more subtle performance and lack of measurable buzz in the form of precursors.  And we are back to undermining Unorthodox.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1204365280

    Riley’s points make a lot of sense to me, but there are some cases when a performance or an actor (or the combination of both) randomly beats out a performance/frontrunner from a sweeping show.

    I won’t bring up Sarah Snook because I feel Succession was weaker in the acting categories regardless.

    But Uzo Aduba over-coming vote splitting and winning against Jean Smart in Watchmen largely because of her narrative (she was playing Shirley Chisolm in a year when Kamala Harris was nominated as VP) tells me that, while Corrin is the safe pic, MJ can pull off an upset if the narrative about her historic wins takes off.

    Even Zendaya winning for a show that had no writing, directing, another acting or a series nomination over Ozark (regardless of it going 1/18) or The Morning Show was a big deal.

    The Crown also aired ages ago, while Schitt’s Creek was peaking in the middle of voting so not sure if I am ready to predict another 7/7 sweep so soon.

    Although Riley’s analysis is the smarter and more logical bet, so I would advise actually going for The Crown’s 6/7 sweep (I just can’t fathom predicting Menzies lol) for your predictions.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204365303

    Mj Rodriguez is Shira Haas, Ramy Youssef, etc. Sure, in another year, she would win, but she is going up against someone who ticks all the boxes, so there is not reason to think that she would leapfrog her. Haas was in the first runner-up in the series race and she had the kind of breakthrough performance that has wielded a winning level of passion in recent years, but Regina King was strong too and Watchmen was sweeping. Rodriguez is not in the first runner-up in the series race, but she is a passion pick. But Emma Corrin is strong too and The Crown is sweeping. The Crown is not going 1-for-18 like Ozark (Zendaya over Linney), it is not a broadcast soap like How to Get Away with Murder (Maslany over Davis) or something not competitive for series like House of Cards (Malek over Spacey). The Crown is sweeping the ceremony, like Schitt’s Creek and Watchmen and unlike Ozark, How to Get Away with Murder and House of Cards, so its acclaimed and pivotal lead is not going to randomly get left behind. This is a sweep era—well, system actually. I entertained the ideas of Haas and Youssef overcoming sweeps, as well as Benedict Cumberbatch over Darren Criss, plus Jeremy Strong losing last year. Others had Julia Louis-Dreyfus or Catherine O’Hara over Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Rachel Brosnahan. Enough! Billy Porter beat Jason Bateman, but would/did he beat Jeremy Strong? Jodie Comer beat Sandra Oh, but woul she have beaten Elisabeth Moss? Zendaya beat Laura Linney, but would she have beaten Moss either? The Crown season 4 at the Emmys is that The Handmaid’s Tale season 1; it is Succession season 2; it is Watchmen; it is Big Little Lies season 1 and Rodriguez is facing it. She did not get lucky like Riz Ahmed or Sterling K. Brown or Bill Hader and land in a category that was up for grabs. I am not saying that leading a series winner guarantees you the win. But nobody thinks that Emma Corrin is Kit Harington or Jeremy Irons or even Jared Harris. She is actually the Jharrel Jerome, the Zendaya, the Mj Rodriguez that we would be arguing could upset the frontrunner.

    This is by far the most convincing argument for predicting Emma Corrin that I have seen. So much so that I am very tempted to change my prediction and now even fear I may be clinging on out of stubbornness.

    Overall, though, the main reason I am sticking to my guns is because I think this all makes sense on paper but frequently we have seen that the Emmys will, especially in recent years, surprise us by veering away from what should happen by their usual form and towards who is of the moment.

    Consequently, the Haas/Youssef comparison is the part of the argument that I know I disagree with. Haas absolutely gained a lot of steam late in the race last year but after the political events of last summer neither her show nor her performance were being more discussed or clamoured for than Regina King’s. Meanwhile, Youssef’s show had missed a weak Comedy field (or so we thought until this year came) and he lost out to the lead of a show that’s interest was still only increasing exponentially.

    Neither of these situations is the case with Corrin and Rodriguez. The latter is the one with the newfound interest and passion. And twice, thanks to the final season and then to the groundbreaking nature of her nomination. Additionally, The Crown is not Schitt’s Creek or Watchmen for the simple fact that the passion for it peaked last November and, whilst still high, has indisputably been decreasing since then. I anticipate the show performing far more like Succession, winning for the industry’s standout performance (Strong/Anderson) plus Writing and Directing. This feels appropriate given that Succession also did not receive a boost of passion in the run up to its victory.

    For all of the other reasons you highlighted, I am always still wary of Corrin. She is undoubtedly formidable as the breakout of the Drama series winner. But against Rodriguez, it would also feel like quite a regressive choice, which is not something the Emmys have really been for a while now.

    Moreover, Zendaya may not have beaten an actor from a series winner but she was technically weaker than Rodriguez (no series nom, other acting nominations, not a record breaker) and managed to overcome fierce performances from Linney and Aniston in two shows that both won acting Emmys . She basically did this solely based on the conversation that was sparked about her performance once she was nominated. So I guess the gamble this year is that, like Zendaya, Rodriguez can overcome the strength of her competitor thanks to being the contender of the moment.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204365338

    And we are back to undermining Unorthodox.

    We are not. I did say Unorthodox was stronger than Pose but Haas was not stronger than Rodriguez (TCA nom, record breaking nomination/win, more buzz and again, Corrin is not Regina King).

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    mafro987
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    #1204365438

    I’m hesitant to label Corrin a ‘breakout star’. People across the industry are undeniably invested in MJ as a person, including Corrin (who said it was an honour to be in the same category as MJ). Can the same be said for Corrin herself? Playing Diana and delivering a great performance is obviously a massive advantage – as the precursors demonstrated – but there arguably isn’t as much of a rootability factor there compared with some of the other recent young winners. Her online engagement is also substantially lower than MJ’s, which obviously isn’t an essential metric to consider, but could be an indicator to some extent.

    For Your Consideration:

    Carrie Coon, ‘The Gilded Age’ (no I haven’t seen it, but we have no choice but to stan anyway)

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    forwardswill
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    #1204365451

    I think getting a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award plus a SAG nomination and potential Emmy win for only your eighth screen credit does absolutely make someone a breakout star.

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    mafro987
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    #1204365455

    I think getting a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award plus a SAG nomination and potential Emmy win for only your eighth screen credit does absolutely make someone a breakout star.

    Delivering a good performance as Diana in a prestigious, globally renowned and award-winning drama series does that. It’s obviously a breakout role for her. I just don’t think Corrin is a ‘star’ yet. The character has obviously elevated her – the extent to which it has is up for debate. I just think it’s hard to write MJ off as some posts have done, when she’s the one who seems like the ‘star’ in this race.

    For Your Consideration:

    Carrie Coon, ‘The Gilded Age’ (no I haven’t seen it, but we have no choice but to stan anyway)

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    JV
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    #1204365467

    I’m hesitant to label Corrin a ‘breakout star’. People across the industry are undeniably invested in MJ as a person, including Corrin (who said it was an honour to be in the same category as MJ). Can the same be said for Corrin herself? Playing Diana and delivering a great performance is obviously a massive advantage – as the precursors demonstrated – but there arguably isn’t as much of a rootability factor there compared with some of the other recent young winners. Her online engagement is also substantially lower than MJ’s, which obviously isn’t an essential metric to consider, but could be an indicator to some extent.

    Agreed. I think Josh O’Connor is a bigger “breakout star” than her.

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    Onion
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    #1204365581

    For me to not overthink things I have to predict The Crown going 7/7 or doing and Olive Kitteridge, and right now I’m seeing several flags in it’s acting categories with only Gillian Anderson as a safe bet.
    If we’re talking Schitts Creek, that show build a super ultra mega momentum on july-august, i believe I saw like several videos of them with millions of views and a handful of A-Listers pretty much campaigning for them (i.e. Mariah Carey). I can’t see that for The Crown right now.

    I’m not saying it won’t win for Emma/Josh or even Tobias, I’m just saying that thinking about it at this point makes sense.

    The Crown doesn’t need a huge momentum on July-August like Schitt’s Creek had because The Crown has been building that momentum up since November.

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    wolfali
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    #1204365655

    I’d argue that Corrin is more of a breakout star than O’Connor is. O’Connor feels a bit like Jessie Buckley. They have both delivered their “breakthrough performance” in projects like The Crown or <i>I’m Thinking of Ending Things</i> like  but they fit more of the mould of a rising star than a “breakout” star. Just like Buckley, O’Connor is someone who has been a rising star in the industry for a while now (both received BAFTA film nominations prior to their “most high profile projects”, Buckley was in Chernobyl, O’Connor has been in quite a few high profile shows in the UK). Neither have suddenly broken out because of something like The Crown or I’m Thinking of Ending Things but both of these projects have given them a boost in their ascent to stardom.

    Emma Corrin on the other hand feels more like a “breakout star” and more comparable to someone like Shira Haas or the Normal People duo. As a performer she was virtually unknown before <i>The Crown</i> but as a result of The Crown, her name is now on a significant number of directors and casting directors in the industry’s lips and she has rather suddenly started her ascent to stardom. For someone like Josh O’Connor or Jessie Buckley they had to build up a lot of goodwill to get to this point in their careers and start nabbing high profile leading roles from high profile directors. For someone previously unknown like Paul Mescal or Emma Corrin, it only took one memorable turn in a popular show and for better of for worse, they will be tied to their breakout performances for the rest of their careers (I’m not saying they will get typecast, more that this will be one of, if not the, most “memorable” performances of their careers).

    Ironically it feels a lot like the situation of their characters on their shows. Prince Charles had built a lot of public recognition and goodwill in his image over the years but all of a sudden a previously unknown Diana came out of nowhere and became the talk of the town.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Couverture
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    #1204365810

    Corrin was made the brand ambassador of the Prada subsidiary, Miu Miu recently and has been courted by & seen sporting multiple high end fashion brands like Valentino and Chanel.

    She has also been cast in multiple high profile projects like with her upcoming film with Harry Styles or the audiobook recording of The Sandman alongside Neil Gaiman, James McAvoy, Riz Ahmed and others.

    A Mirror article stated how industry experts think she could potentially earn around £25 million in the coming few years. From the same article:

    The 24-year-old former model has won the attention of high-end brands and Hollywood casting directors after landing the iconic role.
    Brodie Cooper, image consultant at US firm PRrppd, added: “Emma’s become a big asset in very short time. Her agents will be receiving offers for tens of millions of dollars. Her age, presence and ability to morph into a variety of looks offer huge appeal.”

    That’s without mentioning how all the awards attention at such an early stage makes her extremely desirable amongst industry folks. The fact she managed to land an MTV TV award nomination when the large majority of The Crown viewers are estimated to be 55+ (according to recent Nielsen data) is proof of her already being  popular with the younger viewers without even a show that appeals to them.

    All that within just 6 months of her debut as Diana. I don’t know about you but that sounds like a breakout ‘star’ to me.

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    alittle03
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    #1204366104

    Sorry if I’m derailing, I just want to say I love when we have discussions like these. Everyone here is making absolutely wonderful points.

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    Couverture
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    #1204366133

    Sorry if I’m derailing, I just want to say I love when we have discussions like these. Everyone here is making absolutely wonderful points.

    The movie/music threads could never wbk.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204366196

    Sorry if I’m derailing, I just want to say I love when we have discussions like these. Everyone here is making absolutely wonderful points.

    Between this discussion and the one we had in the limited series thread the other day, I am pleasantly surprised. I was fascinated by some of the arguments made for and against both Corrin and Rodriguez. I have no idea what to do now.

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