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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 12)

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204371172

    </p> I have not seen “Home” yet (this Sunday!) but I have to say as a Crown fan who is rooting for it to win series, I feel underwhelmed by “War”? Just like with Morgan’s writing submission for season 2 even though “Beryl”, “Marionettes” and “Vergangenheit” were right there. Morgan’s overdue anyway and there are plenty of other episodes this season that I find absolutely win worthy so I’m going to pretend he’s winning for “Fairytale” or “Fagan” instead lmao.

    Yeah it’s a pretty logical submission but I think an episode more people would respect than be passionate about, compared to say, the Charles and Diana-centric episodes.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204371250

    Random observation that someone might have already made: It is not every year that we get an expansion like The Boys had, going from a single sound editing nomination (that it got entirely through that category’s panel system) for its debut season to Series and Writing nominations the next year, accompanied by various below-the-line categories that it missed the first time.  The WGA nomination hinted at its potential, but it just as easily could have gone the way of Mindhunter last year.  That was another show that broke through at WGA and seemed to be fairly widely seen and liked, but all that it ended up doing was going from one Creative Arts nomination to a different one.

    #1204371351

    Do y’all think that McKenna Grace is as strong of a frontrunner in Drama Guest Actress as she seems at this moment?

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    Luca
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    #1204371387

    Do y’all think that McKenna Grace is as strong of a frontrunner in Drama Guest Actress as she seems at this moment?

    Not entirely, but I don’t know whom else to predict. The nomination was the hurdle for her IMO. Then again, Bledel could easily just pull off a Ron Cephas Jones if voters are just namechecking. I don’t buy Foy for her cameo, and Okonedo strikes me as Bette Midler 2.0 (nominated for a Ryan Murphy show that got no other ATL noms). The less said about Rashad, the better.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204371445

    I don’t think Claire Foy is at the level where she can win for that cameo. Even the nomination is probably due to the show becoming the Series frontrunner.

    As someone who’s ages behind on THT I can’t tell whether Grace and Bledel would split votes?

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    mateil
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    #1204371463

    Does that include Menzies? Because he’s the one person I feel won’t get swept up in love. He missed last year when he had better material, for Steve Carell in a divisive performance, and he only really had two episodes of substance this season, even that being only a few minutes in each episode.

     

    Even if The Crown wouldn’t be the series front runner he would still have a narrative.

    He’s a respected actor who has never won before and is playing a universally known figure who has just died a couple of months ago. He is a felt presence throughout the season and definitely has “the scene” in the episode he submitted.

    “He missed last year”, so did O’Connor in a far weaker field so I don’t know if that’s a valid argument. I also think that even if Menzies had less to do this season, he had much meatier scenes than last year.

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    Luca
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    #1204371484

    I don’t think Claire Foy is at the level where she can win for that cameo. Even the nomination is probably due to the show becoming the Series frontrunner. As someone who’s ages behind on THT I can’t tell whether Grace and Bledel would split votes?

    It is too hard to tell. Voters obvs love Bledel on this show, so there is definitely the possibility that she siphons votes. That said, the fact that Grace got past the unlimited slots on the nominating ballot and made the cut boasts strength in itself IMO. It’s a clear sign that voters actually watched the season, in which case I have a hard time imagining all too many of them checking off Bledel over Grace.

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    Vice Wicked
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    #1204371507

    How I wish a Bonham Carter win is included in that subscription. Oh well, Anderson ain’t bad either.

    I’ve subscribed to The Crown sweep as well for now. I think it has build up enough good will to pull a Schitt’s Creek.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204371518

    I definitely preferred Bledel to Grace and it does not actually seem to be an unpopular opinion, given Bledel’s nomination without Grace at the Gold Derby Awards and with us having proved that we were voting on the current season by singling out Madeline Brewer.  But the category is weird enough that The Handmaid’s Tale can win even with a significant vote-split.  I called the Ron Cephas Jones upset largely on the basis that he had won without material before, so I did not see his lack of material last year as a detriment.  Bledel’s win on the other hand was tied to universally-acclaimed material that she is not necessarily seen as having this year.  Then again, these things are all relative and I did vote for her to win in both the nominating and winner rounds, so maybe she does have strong-enough material this time.  I have Grace right now on Zendaya lines, but it is not a performance that I anticipated would be win-competitive when I watched it.

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    Manav
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    #1204371522

    I was watching Home again and I wonder,if Moss’ Emmy Clip is the one with her “Do You Understand Me” conversation with Serena,then let’s just say that I’ll say I feel bad for the other nominees.
    It draws great parallels to the same statement Serena had given to June before.

    Btw,I actually preferred Bledel over Grace although both were great

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    Luca
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    #1204371587

    “Do you understand me?!” is undoubtedly Moss’s Emmy clip (if the drama contenders even get any).

    I preferred Amanda Brugel to both Mckenna Grace and Alexis Bledel, but oh well. I still think Mckenna was phenomenal and Bledel impactful enough to deserve a nom. Like Riley, I could see a world in which they’re the top 2.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204371596

    Re Grace, don’t quote me on it, but I believe that whilst a number of teenagers have been nominated (especially since the rule changes in 2015) no teenager/child performer has actually won an Emmy since pre 2000 (though Jharrel Jerome and Joey King came very, very  close). Zendaya’s a decade older than McKenna, so I’m not sure that’s a great comparison.

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    gabspss
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    #1204371796

    I definitely preferred Bledel to Grace and it does not actually seem to be an unpopular opinion, given Bledel’s nomination without Grace at the Gold Derby Awards and with us having proved that we were voting on the current season by singling out Madeline Brewer. But the category is weird enough that The Handmaid’s Tale can win even with a significant vote-split. I called the Ron Cephas Jones upset largely on the basis that he had won without material before, so I did not see his lack of material last year as a detriment. Bledel’s win on the other hand was tied to universally-acclaimed material that she is not necessarily seen as having this year. Then again, these things are all relative and I did vote for her to win in both the nominating and winner rounds, so maybe she does have strong-enough material this time. I have Grace right now on Zendaya lines, but it is not a performance that I anticipated would be win-competitive when I watched it.

    So if you believe that this can be a vote splitting situation, who would win if Bledel and Grace actually vote split?

    I believe Sophie Okonedo has a good chance here. Maybe I am a little biased because I thought her performance was just extraordinary, but if we consider that the voters also watched Ratched (which they probably did since they snubbed Cynthia Nixon and nominated series MVP Sophie Okonedo), what are the actual odds of Sophie winning?

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

    #1204371807

    Re Grace, don’t quote me on it, but I believe that whilst a number of teenagers have been nominated (especially since the rule changes in 2015) no teenager/child performer has actually won an Emmy since pre 2000 (though Jharrel Jerome and Joey King came very, very close). Zendaya’s a decade older than McKenna, so I’m not sure that’s a great comparison.

    Yeah, I think that Tammy Blanchard was the last one to actually win.

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    Luca
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    #1204371811

    Given that Viola Davis won for HTGAWM S1, it is clear that voters had watched the season, yet Cicely Tyson’s undeniable performance lost — to Margo Martindale’s cameo of all things. Your performance having been seen and being undeniable alone does not make you a frontrunner. Ratched’s massive underperfmance with actors, who didn’t even care to check off Cynthia Nixon, leaves me doubtful, even in light of Sophie being singled out. I still think she’s Bette Midler 2.0.

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