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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 11)

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204361933

    I’d say it was Mare of Easttown which actually overperformed. For a show that it’s not ‘showy’ when it come to visuals it was a surprising that it got 9 creative arts nominations and 16 nominations in general.

    I doubt it’s lower than second.

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    Luca
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    #1204361937

    I May Destroy You performed incredibly well, but it still missed out in too many categories for me to consider it for series. It got only three BTL noms, of which one is for casting. Where are the nominations for hairstyling, cinematography, editing, sound, etc.? I can understand the editing miss since it submitted six episodes — then again, over-submitting didn’t stop WV from grabbing 3 writing noms — but at least hairstyling should have been a possibility. And before someone says that it isn’t showy in those departments: neither is Mare of Easttown, which vastly overperformed BTL by nabbing noms like hairstyling, cinematography, sound mixing, etc. IMDY also got in two actors, but if it were really, really beloved by the acting branch, Weruche Opia would also have been nominated considering she plays one of the three main characters. The only branch that showered it with more love than I expected is the directing branch and that’s it.

    And no, I am not influenced by any personal bias here as I am incredibly impressed by what I have seen from the show.

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    mafro987
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    #1204361958

    One thing I will say is that below the line support doesn’t necessarily correlate with above the line wins. The Americans received 4 nominations in total for its final season (none above the line), and won 2 – both very prestigious categories – over contenders you would think had far more support given their nominations totals. I don’t see IMDY winning Series (and neither does Wolfali), but it can feasibly beat the larger shows in Lead Actress, Supporting Actor and obviously Writing.

    For Your Consideration:

    Carrie Coon, ‘The Gilded Age’ (no I haven’t seen it, but we have no choice but to stan anyway)

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    Luca
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    #1204361968

    It’s true: no one here really said it was winning limited series.

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    Couverture
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    #1204361970

    I’d argue <i>I May Destroy You</i> did have quite a few surprise nominations that were unexpected and may be indicative of growing passion.

    I was somewhat disappointed by its overall nomination haul tbh. It did underperform when it came to BTL noms (3 noms) where many people expected it to perform good (6-9 noms). The surprise of Paapa’s nom is also dampened by the snub of the more predicted Weuche Opia. And while the second directing nom was a big surprise and is a sign of strength, after realising how much of a tank the shows next in line were (Small Axe, The Undoing), I’m not sure how much weight I’d like to put on that in the end.

    I see no reason for IMDY to lose series after a writing+actress win tbh but unlike its competitors it isn’t as uniformly strong for me to predict that to happen so I’m sticking with Anya vs Winslet in actress while Coel picks up the writing trophy.

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    Luca
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    #1204361974

    And while the second directing nom was a big surprise and is a sign of strength, after realising how much of a tank the shows next in line were (Small Axe, The Undoing), I’m not sure how much weight I’d like to put on that in the end.

    I would also add that people might be swayed by IMDY being the only limited series nominee with multiple directors. The three nomination juggernauts plus The Underground Railroad were all directed by a single director and therefore had only one submission.

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    mafro987
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    #1204361976

    I see no reason for IMDY to lose series after a writing+actress win tbh

    But why? It doesn’t have the prerequisite below the line support. Again – The Americans still wasn’t particularly competitive for Series despite the major above the line wins it got. In the scenario you mention, I don’t see why TQG wouldn’t be able to win with Directing and a large below the line haul.

    For Your Consideration:

    Carrie Coon, ‘The Gilded Age’ (no I haven’t seen it, but we have no choice but to stan anyway)

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    wolfali
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    #1204361978

    Mare of Easttown did do well in nominations and solidified itself as a potential contender for the win but just because it performed well below the line, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s locked in the top 2 in series or that it has massively over-performed. Sure it had one or two surprise below the line nominations (like in costumes) but so did Ozark season 3 this time last year and it ultimately ended up walking home with one Emmy (and got shut out below the line).

    The fact that it got into costumes and hairstyling could be indicative of further support (I disagree with the notion that its cinematography and sound mixing weren’t “showy” especially considering how much the latter played a part in the show’s fifth episode) but it also might have just been as a result of its recency and it being a massive hit (just like it was with Ozark last year).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Luca
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    #1204361980

    Mare of Easttown and Ozark aren’t comparable, considering the latter completely under-performed in the categories in which it had no right to under-perform: the acting categories. Mare, on the other hand, got the four acting nominees it needed. Plus, Ozark was competing against a show that also blew up, Succession.

    but just because it performed well below the line, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s locked in the top 2 in series or that it has massively over-performed. Sure it had one or two surprise below the line nominations (like in costumes) but so did Ozark season 3 this time last year and it ultimately ended up walking home with one Emmy (and got shut out below the line).

    How did it not over-perform? Nominations for editing (x2), makeup, hairstyling, sound mixing, cinematography and production design were not all givens. It got into almost every category in which it submitted, did it not? It missed score and sound editing and that’s pretty much it. That’s pretty impressive.

    but it also might have just been as a result of its recency and it being a massive hit

    You are absolutely right. And four of the five last limited series winners all aired in the spring and arguably benefited from recency bias.

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    wolfali
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    #1204361982

    I see no reason for IMDY to lose series after a writing+actress win tbh

    I don’t know if I agree with that.

    I still think it lacks the support it needs to win series (I have the two “tech heavy” shows in the top 2 in series) but I feel like a potential Michaela Coel win in both those categories would have little to do with the show’s strength in series but more the passion for her work (a bit like how Jharrel Jerome won for When They See Us even though the show lost series and was potentially below Fosse/Verdon as well).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    forwardswill
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    #1204361985

    It’s times like these when I just love the forums

    Not only did it get one but it also got two directing nominations

    This would be more of an achievement if it beat something else that did well to it. The only reason people weren’t predicting it was because the almost complete shutout of Small Axe was unforeseen. In the end, it was more of a case that the Emmys really didn’t jive with that than it was that IMDY was so strong it could get two in.

    Likewise there was always a possibility that Coel would be the only performer on the show that actors would care for yet Essiedu surprised (at least surprised in the sense of the odds) in spite of not having been cited at somewhere like the Critics Choice (who tend to be quite good at choosing passion picks and acclaimed “out of the box” performances in their supporting categories). The fact that he managed to slip could suggest a growing sign of strength for a show that until now has only been seen as “the Michaela Coel show” (and in some ways rightfully so). That being said it’s hard to tell whether Weruche Opia’s snub is a detriment to the show or Coel’s chances in acting or it’s just a situation where whilst she seemed well positioned she ultimately failed to get in due to the competitive nature of the field and/or voters not taking to her performance (as we’ve seen with other performers in shows that have won acting Emmys recently).

    You have answered yourself here I believe. People were predicting Opia and not Essiedu so this idea that it has been assumed as only Coel’s show is false. Accordingly, Essiedu getting in alone is neither a positive or negative sign for the show as it is simply a straight swap on what was generally expected.

    I’m sorry with all due respect I find this to be quite a lazy argument. Not because I’m actually not predicting the show that is my personal choice in series to win but at the end of the day (especially in a wide open race like this in actress) we all tend to be partially swayed by our own biases when making predictions whether intentionally or unintentionally, largely or partially. It’s fruitless.

    Of course you find it a lazy argument because it was almost entirely directed at your posts. Now I know I should have technically said people are “theorising” what they want to happen rather than “predicting”. Although given that I don’t often go around checking other people’s predictions in the center (and when I do it’s a choice few like Luca, Joyce, Riley), I think I can be forgiven for assuming that you were predicting IMDY given that you post several times a day about all the ways it is being underestimated and can win but never do about Queen’s Gambit (which I now know to be your prediction).

    I think it’s interesting that you assume everyone is swayed by their biases as much as yourself.

    I agree with this actually (and I have the show as the series runner up at the moment). It’s not the amount of nominations the show managed to get that’s making me think it’s a dark horse but where it’s gotten them. It more or less either performed as it was expected to (three acting nominations) or over-performed (three writing nominations) with each branch. The three writing nominations could be quite a testament to its strength considering how many episodes it had on the ballot and how auteur driven that branch has become in recent years (somewhat ironically the last and only time a limited series received three writing nominations, it won limited series).

    Exactly.

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    Couverture
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    #1204361987

    But why? It doesn’t have the prerequisite below the line support. Again – The Americans still wasn’t particularly competitive for Series despite the major above the line wins it got. In the scenario you mention, I don’t see why TQG wouldn’t be able to win with Directing and a large below the line haul.

    I still believe Rhys was helped majorly by both of the WW guys and the TIU guys splitting their votes. I don’t think he’d win if that wasn’t the case, especially when Sterling was coming off a sweep and is popular enough amongst actors to pull through without internal competition.

    This is more like the 2019 comedy actress and comedy series race where a split between the two doesn’t make sense and that’s how I was able to correctly predict PWB in Actress when it was clear Fleabag was winning series so I’ll stick with that.

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    Manav
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    #1204361990

    As long as Coel wins something, I’m fine. I don’t think the Series will take home the big trophy. I don’t remember a series with such a low haul of noms to take home a drama or limited series win since Homeland season 1.
    But I do think Winslet is in a really really strong position for Actress win. She has a strong buzzy performance,a great career respect,series overperformance, Twitter support, visibility, acting branch support and a very strong career resurgence and “no makeup” narrative. If people vote for Peters they HAVE to vote for Winslet considering almost all his scenes are with Winslet.
    I think the only person who can upseat Kate is Anya Taylor Joy who has swept Everything and has a good narrative herself

    It’s the lead actor category that’s without a clear lead.

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    Manav
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    #1204361996

    Mare of Easttown and Ozark aren’t comparable, considering the latter completely under-performed in the categories in which it had no right to under-perform: the acting categories. Mare, on the other hand, got the four acting nominees it needed. Plus, Ozark was competing against a show that also blew up, Succession.

    You are absolutely right. And four of the five last limited series winners all aired in the spring and arguably benefited from recency bias.

    💯 Agreed!

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    wolfali
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    #1204362004

    How did it not over-perform? Nominations for editing (x2), makeup, hairstyling, sound mixing, cinematography and production design were not all givens. It got into almost every category in which it submitted, did it not? It missed score and sound editing and that’s pretty much it. That’s pretty impressive.

    I apologise for not having been clearer.

    I didn’t say it “did not” over-perform. What I was more saying was that its nominations in some (or even a lot) of these categories below the line weren’t “unexpected” nor were they too shocking. Each of the contemporary below the line categories were much weaker this year than they were last (they each lost at least one nomination slot for example) so whilst the show getting in for something like costumes is quite significant, it getting in for production design (a category so weak that The Undoing managed to slip in in spite of it getting snubbed at the guild earlier this year) or for makeup weren’t some 100/1 beyond the realms of possibility shocks. The show’s cinematography was quite showy and is from the Oscar snubbed but the Spirit winner and ASC nominee behind Beasts of the Southern Wild. The show is a murder mystery with showy editing and showy sound mixing. Likewise it only had two episodes on the ballot for editing unlike say WandaVision (which got two editing nominations with four episodes on the ballot).

    Do I agree it over-performed below the line? Absolutely. But aside from the costumes and hairstyling nominations, none of its below the line nominations were beyond the realms of possibility nor were they massive “shocks” like say WandaVision‘s three writing nominations were. They were always in play.

    Plus, Ozark was competing against a show that also blew up, Succession.

    And WandaVision didn’t also blow up?

    You are absolutely right. And four of the five last limited series winners all aired in the spring and arguably benefited from recency bias.

    Which is why I don’t disagree that it’s win competitive.

    But for every Big Little Lies or Fleabag you have an Ozark season 3 and a Handmaid’s Tale season 2 under-performing in wins after massively over-performing in nominations (especially below the line). Just because Mare  has recency and did well below the line, it doesn’t make it immune from under-performing in wins. Likewise it also doesn’t make it implausible for it to take series (and potentially all four or five of the other categories it’s nominated for above the line).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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