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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 11)

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    methaddiction
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    #1204397873

    I think if british people were going to rally behind someone though it would easily be Michaela and not Kate 💀 especially considering their shows.

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    Brett Hunt
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    #1204397909

    I feel like y’all are excluding WandaVision from the debate when the nominations and buzz since its release show that it has a strong chance of winning, even with Marvel bias

    I’m not underestimating it but I didn’t have any WandaVision questions honestly.

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    Brett Hunt
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    #1204397911

    Does The Queen’s Gambit (a) have any steam left ? (b) don’t people think that the show and actress has been awarded enough? (c) although it got in for every category it submitted,why isn’t it at no.1 or 2 in nom list? Why not above WandaVision after sweeping guilds? Have people gotten tired?

    Ok I understand the British bloc one. My wrong.

     

    How would you explain TQG questions cause that’s what I’m eager to learn your insights.

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    wolfali
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    #1204397913

    I totally agree with Luca.

    The idea of people voting for those who share the same nationality as them by default is quite bizarre. A Canadian comedy swept last year, a British comedy won  series the year before and a show about an American stand-up comedian in the 60s won the year before that. I think the notion of shows appealing to certain voting blocs only comes in when you look at the type of show. The Crown and Killing Eve are shows that are actually produced by a British production company but at the end of the day neither have as much appeal amongst British creatives as Succession (an American drama with a very British type of humour created by a British comedy writer with a set of British directors and a writers room partially based in the UK).

    I actually think the show that will probably have the most appeal amongst the British bloc is I May Destroy You especially in a category like writing where the bloc seems to be disproportionately represented. Like Black MirrorChernobylSherlockSuccession etc it’s a very British show (one set and produced in the UK at that) and just like Charlie Brooker and Black Mirror, the writing of I May Destroy You is at the crux of its passion (which isn’t necessarily the case for The Queen’s Gambit for example) and Michaela Coel is someone who is already quite celebrated by the industry over here and is an auteur who has just been “discovered” on the western side of the Atlantic.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Manav
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    #1204397926

    Totally agree with you all.
    Coel is the British “new talent” in a British production which appeals well to Brits and has had a historic sweep at the BAFTAs.

    So she is the most “British” choice (if that is actually something) not Winslet.

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    Luca
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    #1204397941

    We just came off of an Oscar season in which people asserted that there is something like the “Black vote” or the “SNL vote,” so let’s not start that mess again. We are still healing from that clownery.

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    Liam McWhinney
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    #1204397970

    @Brett Hunt, I give you a massive friendly virtual hug for collating these questions. Thank you!

    The Queens Gambit is strong based on the fact that it got in for every category it needed to, but it’s strength is especially telling from the supporting actor nominations. They are both, I say this with all due respect, lesser known than some of the other players from TQG were being predicted. In my opinion, Brodie-Stangstar and Ingram were highlights of the series. Brodie-Stangstar oozes charisma with this cowboy quality that is irresistible. Ingram was equally impressive, not only do we see the character age, so we see her range, but we are also so engaged by this vivacious cheeky lass from the get-go, Episode 1. A great first impression. I think if anything these nominations cement, that a) they watched it all and most importantly, b) they love it. Because they resisted against the more well known names within the piece, which shows they abandoned notoriety, and, arguably of course, went for quality. Only complete snubs in the supporting categories would denote fatigue. I also think it’s hard to compare with WandaVision, only because  the technical choices of the piece are a bit more blatant, as oppose to The Queen’s Gambit. I think people admire WandaVision, and admiration serves very well in the nomination phase, but deep love and passion is what propels a win, and that is what I think The Queen’s Gambit has. I don’t think you sweep guilds in the miniseries or movie realm, without love and passion. Other genres, and even the film medium maybe. But not miniseries or movie.

    Mare of Easttown
    , I think the ending is rushed, and open-ended. The ending leaves audiences assuming, I think it’s a beautiful motif of *spoiler* Mare walking up to the attic, that some may see as symbolic, but I don’t see that as a definite conclusion. I was thinking about this when I finished the series, I really did walk away, and say to myself this was Winslet’s finest hour. As much as I appreciated all the other performances, I think it would be very unlikely for one of the supporting players to win on their lonesome, without a Winslet win. I’m curious to see if the anyone thinks this could happen. I also dunno if the geographical voting blocks matter at the Emmys as much as they do at the Oscars. I really question their credibility as a predictive tool.

     

    I May Destroy You I don’t think had an “abysmal performance” below the line. Yes it is contemporary, but it has much more a naturalistic sensibility than Mare of Easttown. The piece’s technical elements aren’t necessarily as ‘showy’ as Mare of Easttown. Remember, for Easttown, part of what makes it so engaging is the fine details of the town itself, which comes from the a) the specificity of the characters, and, b) the stylistic choices. These were just more noticeable to voters, hence more easily recognised. My mind went to Promise Young Woman when I finished I May Destroy You, in terms of how the “male-dominated Academy” may respond to it. I think what helps it is, it handles the issue with a bit more divided lense in that it discusses the issue of rape from not only a female perspective, but also a male one. It’s not necessary focused on one binary. I think that helps it, as it doesn’t target a binary, but discusses how it can really happen to anyone.

     

     

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    Liam McWhinney
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    #1204397976

    Quality trumps geography. No matter where you come from in the world, you vote for what you thinks good. I honestly think people do that, particularly in the privacy of the ballot.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204397980

    The idea of people voting for those who share the same nationality as them by default is quite bizarre.

    The only difference I can potentially see is one around campaign focuses being extremely targeted around British press, but I don’t really think that’s the case here.

    I do think an aversion to certain types of regional humor/nostalgia/assumed knowledge keeps some shows out (I suspect this may have been the case for It’s A Sin), but I don’t think it matters once you’re in.

     

     

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204397994

    Quality trumps geography. No matter where you come from in the world, you vote for what you thinks good. I honestly think people do that, particularly in the privacy of the ballot.

    Once you’re nominated, 1oo%.

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    Liam McWhinney
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    #1204397999

    What is the likelihood of Mare of Easttown losing it’s nominations below the line? I think it could happen.

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    marsha_brightly
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    #1204398010

    i think BAFTA TV award not as prestige as BAFTA film….i dont know why these 2 british ladies  (KW & ATJ) didnt compete at Bafta TV

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    mateil
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    #1204398012

    Current Predictions:

    Series – The Queen’s Gambit(IMO the safest category in limited other than Directing)

    Directing – The Queen’s Gambit

    Writing – The Queen’s Gambit(Rarely does the series winner not get both if it’s nominated as a whole, plus I do feel it’s the most popular and accessible material here.)

    Actress – Anya Taylor-Joy

    Actor – Paul Bettany

    Supporting Actress – Julianne Nicholson

    Supporting Actor – Paapa Esseidu

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204398016

    i think BAFTA TV award not as prestige as BAFTA film….i dont know why these 2 british ladies (KW & ATJ) didnt compete at Bafta TV

    There shows are only elegible for the International award at BAFTA, TQG missed this year, MoE is not elegible until next year

    FYC SAG AWARDS

    Kate Winslet, Murray Bartlett

    TMS & THT in all Drama Categories

    Ted Lasso & Sandra Oh

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    Manav
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    #1204398026

    What is the likelihood of Mare of Easttown losing it’s nominations below the line? I think it could happen.

    I think it will win Casting and “may” win Editing (not sure at all). I don’t think it wins anything else BTL 🙂

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