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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 8)

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    Onion
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    Aug 1st, 2015
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    #1204297895

    Lead + Supporting nominations without series/movie/variety special nominations.

    2019: The Act (Actress + S. Actress), A Very English Scandal (Actor + S. Actor)
    2018: American Horror Story : Cult (Actress + S. Actress), The Looming Tower (Actor + S. Actor)
    2017: American Crime (Actress + S. Actress)

    Which show (if any) is the likeliest to land this set of nominations?

    WandaVision could be in that position with Olsen + Hahn.

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    Eden
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    #1204297899

    Can we get Ramos added in the predictions centre for Hamilton?

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204297905

    Lead + Supporting nominations without series/movie/variety special nominations. 2019: The Act (Actress + S. Actress), A Very English Scandal (Actor + S. Actor) 2018: American Horror Story : Cult (Actress + S. Actress), The Looming Tower (Actor + S. Actor) 2017: American Crime (Actress + S. Actress) Which show (if any) is the likeliest to land this set of nominations?

    Cynthia Erivo could be a threat for Lead Actress mention. She was annoyingly robbed for The Outsider.

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204297910

    Lead + Supporting nominations without series/movie/variety special nominations. 2019: The Act (Actress + S. Actress), A Very English Scandal (Actor + S. Actor) 2018: American Horror Story : Cult (Actress + S. Actress), The Looming Tower (Actor + S. Actor) 2017: American Crime (Actress + S. Actress) Which show (if any) is the likeliest to land this set of nominations?

    It’s a Sin with Alexander and West/Hawes, Halston with McGregor and Rodriguez, The Undoing with Grant/Kidman and Sutherland and if TUR gets snubbed (which I doubt) with Mbedu and Pierre.

    Emmys FYC: Jean Smart.

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    wolfali
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    #1204297920

    It’s a Sin with Alexander and West/Hawes, Halston with McGregor and Rodriguez, The Undoing with Grant/Kidman and Sutherland

    This is actually what I was currently leaning towards. I think if any of the aforementioned lead actors (Alexander, McGregor, Grant) get nominated and are win competitive that their supporting players can most certainly get nominated/coattail. I think West is likelier than Hawes though.

    With regards to The Underground Railroad I think it’s in but I don’t think it’s in the top 3 anymore. I think Mare is easily ahead of it (and I assume it will overtake it in the predictions centre by next week). I feel like we have a solid top 3 of The Queen’s Gambit and I May Destroy You/Mare like Big Little Lies and The Night Of/Feud (and before anyone comes for me this is not an exact comparison).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Wolvie13
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    #1204297965

    Yikes. Give it up to the performance of the year, people! :).svg” class=”emoji”

    Of the year? Gosh!! I ve got like four better now 🙂

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    wolfali
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    #1204298091

    I’ve dropped Moses Ingram. I feel more and more confident that Marielle Heller is ahead of her and I just don’t know if her rising star status distinguishes her so much in that category when so many other performers she’s competing with also have the same narrative. I can see her end up being the Hong Chau of The Queen’s Gambit to Marielle Heller’s Jean Smart.

    I think if a performer coattails to the show it will be Thomas Brodie-Sangster instead. I posted this before but since the shift to the plurality voting system in 2015, there has always been a series nominee that has gotten 2+ nominations in this category:

    2015 – American Horror Story : Freak Show (2)
    2016 – Fargo (2), The People Vs OJ Simpson (3)
    2017 – Feud : Bette and Joan (2), The Night Of (2)
    2018 – The Assassination of Gianni Versace (3)
    2019 – When They See Us (3)
    2020 – Watchmen (3)

    Stats can of course be broken but as the series frontrunner, The Queen’s Gambit seems to be best positioned to be the show that gets multiple nominations in this category. I appreciate the comparisons with Chernobyl but I don’t think The Queen’s Gambit and the show are comparable in terms of acting appeal. The protagonist of Chernobyl was the Chernobyl nuclear plant not the character played by Jared Harris. The protagonist of The Queen’s Gambit is Beth Harmon. The show is more of a character study than Chernobyl was (that’s not a statement of my own qualitative opinion on the writing of either shows) and unlike Jared Harris, Anya Taylor-Joy won at SAG.

    Do I think the show has a big actors bait ensemble? No. But with how it’s the series frontrunner, I don’t think it’s implausible for it to coattail an actor here or there. Brodie-Sangster shared a lot of scenes with Taylor-Joy midway and towards the end of the show so I don’t think it’s implausible for him to be a nomination coattail as we’ve seen other actors in limited series coattail due to sharing so many scenes with their leads in the past. Likewise Brodie-Sangster has also been in the industry since he was a child and in terms of prestige television has credits on shows like Wolf HallGame of Thrones and Godless. He’s probably worked with a lot of people. I don’t consider him a lock for a nomination but he’s far closer to a nomination than the predictions centre is suggesting him to be.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    GD
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    #1204298104

    Mare of Easttown jumped from 15 000 ratings to more than 50 000 ratings on IMDB in 2 weeks. Word of mouth is real!

    And now that the series is over, the score on Rotten Tomatoes jumped from 92% to 94%, and from 80 to 82 on Metacritic.

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    Luca
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    #1204298110

    Mare of Easttown jumped from 15 000 ratings to more than 50 000 ratings on IMDB in 2 weeks. Word of mouth is real!

    It’s what it deserves.

    I think we need to start considering the possibility of this vastly overperforming. Our eyes have been on mainly Winslet, Smart, Nicholson and Peters, but what if the support is big enough for more cast members to get in?

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    wolfali
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    #1204298123

    Mare of Easttown jumped from 15 000 ratings to more than 50 000 ratings on IMDB in 2 weeks.

    This is revisionist. It has 46 000 ratings not more than 50 000 lol.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10155688/ratings/?ref_=tt_ov_rt

    The show obviously does have strong word of mouth but it partially has only jumped on IMDB because users tend to vote en masse on the show’s actual main page after it has finished airing (i.e. the show had 24k votes after the finale aired on May 31st and rapidly grew over a week on there as people who were watching all along and rating the episodes individually finished the show and gave their final rating). Another example would be how Hacks has doubled in its IMDB ratings in 2 days since it finished airing or how The Kominsky Method has gone from 23k votes on IMDB to 29k since it finished airing.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204298127

    It’s what it deserves. I think we need to start considering the possibility of this vastly overperforming. Our eyes have been on mainly Winslet, Smart, Nicholson and Peters, but what if the support is big enough for more cast members to get in?

    Luca, don’t get your hope too high! The probability of that show going to the Emmy with only Winslet nominated is still high.

    "The Lost Daughter" in every eligible category - Film
    "Succession" Season 3 in every eligible category - TV
    "Heaux Tales" by Jasmine Sullivan in every eligible category - Music

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    wolfali
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    #1204298133

    Luca, don’t get your hope too high! The probability of that show going to the Emmy with only Winslet nominated is still high.

    I don’t think anyone else outside of Nicholson, Smart and Peters stands a chance because their performances either don’t have enough passion to overcome barriers we’ve seen with awards groups (Cameron Mann), are thankless (Guy Pearce) or not so well received (Angourie Rice) but I disagree with you. I think Nicholson and Smart are in at this point (I have both in the top 2 in my predictions actually for the nominations stage lol).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204298139

    This is revisionist. It has 46 000 ratings not more than 50 000 lol. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10155688/ratings/?ref_=tt_ov_rt The show obviously does have strong word of mouth but it partially has only jumped on IMDB because users tend to vote en masse on the show’s actual main page after it has finished airing (i.e. the show had 24k votes after the finale aired on May 31st and rapidly grew over a week on there as people who were watching all along and rating the episodes individually finished the show and gave their final rating). Another example would be how Hacks has doubled in its IMDB ratings in 2 days since it finished airing or how The Kominsky Method has gone from 23k votes on IMDB to 29k since it finished airing.

    And Users voting en masse is a good sign. The Underground Railroad, for example, is stuck on 3.3 K.

    Hacks is probably going to surpass the show until the day of the nominations, which is worrisome considering HBO Max is only available on USA and Prime Video is everywhere.

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204298142

    It’s what it deserves.

    I think we need to start considering the possibility of this vastly overperforming. Our eyes have been on mainly Winslet, Smart, Nicholson and Peters, but what if the support is big enough for more cast members to get in?

    That’s not going to happen. Like, at all. And I’m saying this as someone who loved the show. I don’t even think Peters is happening. He has been snubbed before for more acclaimed performances (Cult says hi) and his arc isn’t even that big. Right now I’m only going with Winslet and Nicholson.

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    ReddWhite
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    Mar 20th, 2021
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    #1204298145

    I’ve dropped Moses Ingram. 

    Me too. I’m feeling more and more that if anyone else gets the 2nd supporting nod it’s Isla Johnston (still not in the prediction center though). She has the PILOT all to herself, everyone that saw TQG saw her and most people liked her, with some even preferring her to ATJ. It’s Jovan Adepo all over again.

    Ingram I think suffers from the fact that she only appears in the pilot and the finale, and even then she’s barely in the former. Also I’ve seen some criticism of her character being stereotyped.

    As far as the men go, however, IDK. Camp is a lock, but I’m not buying either of the love interests (even if I want Melling to get a nod, such a great and underrated actor).

    Emmys FYC: Jean Smart.

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