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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 10)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204959205

    The Undoing actually had better linear ratings than Mare.

    I stand corrected! It wasn’t showing on the page I looked at. You are right.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204959213

    Mare got a million for 4/7 eps, Undoing 3/6 episodes. To be specific.

    But anyway, the whole point is Barry not doing great live does not mean viewers abandoned it overall and/or that Emmy voters will likewise abandon it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204959423

    Comedy Actress

    1. Jean Smart, Hacks – Duh.

    2. Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant – How The Flight Attendant performs overall is something that still remains to be seen but I just find it difficult to see how Cuoco could fall from being the runner up at the Emmys and winter awards to two awards sweepers (Smart and O’Hara) to falling out of nominations so easily. The show is still as well received and watched as it was last year and her performance this season is even more acclaimed than it was last go round too.

    3. Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – On the one hand she’s the contender in this category with the least visible passion. On the other if someone is strong enough to knock out an Emmy winning and 3 time SAG (1 individual, 2 ensemble) winning performance in a show that is locked for a comedy series nomination, what’s to stop said performers’ show from over-performing altogether? Until this year The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel has been a favourite of this branch and whilst it’s not going to have as strong a performance as it has had in prior years, it just doesn’t make sense for it to completely collapse altogether in this year of all years. Its initial critical reception was more mixed than prior seasons but its audience ratings and scores were through the roof and its finale was one of the most acclaimed in the history of the show. The Elisabeth Moss comparisons do make a lot of sense but I also feel like Moss was in a much shakier starting position compared to Brosnahan. Brosnahan has won Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and TCA awards for this performance whilst Moss failed to win the latter two for Handmaid‘s. Brosnahan has only ever lost awards for this performance to people who won the Emmy and swept (PWB and O’Hara) whilst Moss had lost to people like Jennifer Aniston and Sandra Oh (who both failed to win their Emmys). The Handmaid’s Tale season 3 aired a full year before Emmy voting began whilst Maisel has finished its run a couple of months before voting begins. In hindsight one could argue Moss was already starting off behind Aniston, Colman, Comer, Linney and Oh and got pushed out due to a passion pick like Zendaya making waves during the lockdown. Does anyone really have an argument for Brosnahan starting off in this race lower than 3rd (where she probably was in both the 2019 and 2020 races, if not the runner up of both)? The Crown and Ozark were going into that drama series race as bigger contenders than The Handmaid’s Tale and Aniston and Comer had recent SAG and Emmy wins under their belts. This race has started with Smart having swept everything and most of the competitors in this category are in shows fighting for series nominations (Russian Doll, Insecure, The Great, Julia). Personally I think she’s more comparable to someone like Michael Douglas or Sterling K. Brown where there might not be as much passion as there was in the past to hand them a win, but they are the de facto faces of their shows and as long as their shows are being checked off elsewhere in series or other acting categories so are they on an unlimited ballot.

    4. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary – She feels a lot like the auteur breakout of the year (à la Michaela Coel, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Issa Rae, Donald Glover, Aziz Ansari, Bill Hader, Natasha Lyonne etc). Even if voters don’t go crazy for Abbott Elementary by now they’ll probably be aware of the show’s success and her duties on it which I think could give her dark horse potential in this race.

    5. Sarah Lancashire, JuliaJulia feels a lot like a show that’s actors bait with a dress on it. I do feel shakier about Lancashire than I might have last month (she is still an actor who is largely unknown stateside and the show isn’t making the biggest waves in buzz) but I just can’t help but think that there is bound to be a lot of industry appeal in this show due to it essentially being a show about television. HBO also seem to be campaigning quite hard for the show and according to recent reports from pundits this show seems to have played well with some television academy voters.

    6. Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll – I dropped her then I added her in back in again then I dropped her and now I’ve added her back in after some time away. There’s no doubt Russian Doll has returned with less hype and acclaim than it had in 2019 (where its first season was not only one of the most acclaimed of all time but was also became something of a pop cultural phenomenon) but I do feel like there’s seems to be an industry awareness it has returned and Lyonne seems to be campaigning a lot (she’s hosting the season finale of SNL for example). This branch seems to be very fond of Orange is the New Black alums and auteurs and Lyonne’s work on this show still seems to be quite beloved. The show also interestingly cracked the Nielsen charts on the week of its debut in spite of falling out of the top 10 on Netflix shortly after it launched and the season having a short run time with 308 million minutes streamed the week of the 18th April (which is higher than something like The Dropout on the limited side at its peak) so it definitely seems to be in a much better position than something like Master of None was last year.

    7. Elle Fanning, The Great – I’ve primarily been shuffling between her and Lyonne in my predictions. On the one hand I think The Great is somewhat untested in its support. It broke through at the guilds after it got shut out for a first season that premiered as a box set a couple of weeks before Emmy voting began and maintained some of those nominations (it still got in for SAG ensemble this year and Fanning got in over Selena Gomez) so really anyone who has wanted to catch up on this show will have done so by now and this will be their first time to vote for it so I can see that overall goodwill manifesting in the form of a big breakthrough for it (series, two lead acting noms, maybe even a below the line nod for costumes or production design too). However The Great has had a history of one lead getting in without the other at awards ceremonies (Hoult got in everywhere for season 1 whilst Fanning only got in at the Globes, Fanning got in everywhere for season 2 whilst Hoult missed SAG) which leads me to suggest that both leads are probably attracting a similar amount of votes and are just getting in dependant on competition and Fanning’s field here is much stiffer than Hoult’s this time round.

    8. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building – She feels like the type of contender who we all assume will miss the nomination due to faltering at the winter awards but they coattail to their show’s overall visibility at the Emmys. That being said those Globe and SAG misses still feel pretty glaring (especially considering how populist skewing both bodies tend to be) so this might just be a performance that isn’t attracting enough passion to be checked off in the first place.

    9. Issa Rae, Insecure – It’s hard to tell where Insecure stands as a whole in this race. It really over-performed last time round and even went on to win a category as major as editing but at the same time it feels like it’s on a completely different playing field here. Most of Rae’s competition this year wasn’t eligible when she got back in 2020 (she was dropped the prior year) and Insecure was HBO’s priority in the series and actress races that year whilst it’s arguably not even its third campaign priority in the actress race. Whether Rae gets back in will be dependent on if Insecure’s haul last time round was a sign of a big industry breakthrough or a capitalisation of a weaker field.

    10. Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish – Black-ish feels like a show that has benefitted from a weak comedy field (even in last year’s barren field it couldn’t even show up in a category like casting) these past two years and Ross missing before makes me think she’s nothing but a long shot in this category. That being said if somehow the new series flop and shows like The Great or Russian Doll under-perform, she’s probably high enough and familiar enough as a perennial bridesmaid in the category to benefit from it.

    11. Sandra Oh, The Chair – Since her resurgence with Killing Eve there’s not been a single instance in which Oh has missed a nomination when she’s been on the ballot (she even got a guest acting nomination for SNL, something usually reserved for comedic actors and former cast members). That being said she also feels like nothing but an also ran in this race and it feels hard to justify why she would get in for a show that essentially came and went in a competitive comedy field whilst being on the fringes of her own weaker drama actress category for a show she’s made it in every season for and a role that is the most high profile of her career after her Grey’s Anatomy breakout.

    12. Rose Byrne, Physical – She probably won’t happen but everyone who has seen this show seems to love her on it and with its second season airing in the run up to voting (with added Murray Bartlett) and at a time in which Apple have so much industry heat on them, she has the opportunity to make a second impression at the right time.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204959439

    One last goodbye nom for the road

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    probablyROB
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    #1204959485

    Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant – How The Flight Attendant performs overall is something that still remains to be seen but I just find it difficult to see how Cuoco could fall from being the runner up at the Emmys and winter awards to two awards sweepers (Smart and O’Hara) to falling out of nominations so easily.

    The runner up thing is pure conjecture, right?

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    Brayfers
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    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1204959530

    Not feeling the Atlanta “stand-alone” episodes but I have enjoyed the episodes that consisted of plot lines involving the core four cast members! I forgot how much I love Stanfield and Henry in their roles.

    Letterboxd: Brayfers

    Multi-Grammy Winning Artist - Olivia Rodrigo

    !! EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE - OUT NOW !!

    FYC:
    - Squid Game
    - Severance
    - This Is Us
    - Stranger Things
    - Reservation Dogs

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    wolfali
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    #1204959580

    I won’t mind if McKinnon gets a final season nomination because I do like her and it’s not as if she wouldn’t be “in contention” for one in any normal year but Aidy Bryant and Pete Davidson…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204959582

    I won’t mind if McKinnon gets a final season nomination because I do like her and it’s not as if she wouldn’t be “in contention” for one in any normal year but Aidy Bryant and Pete Davidson…

    I don’t mind Aidy. I do think this is a good time to go though. I feel like they’re cycling through the same schtick over and over.

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    Manav
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    #1204959651

    The forum needs to stop putting weight on TCA. It’s a bit of a non-factor.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    gabspss
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    #1204959668

    The forum needs to stop putting weight on TCA. It’s a bit of a non-factor.

    TCA is obviously very different from the Emmys, but they are definetely not a non-factor. They are an extremely well way to measure buzz pre-Emmy nominations and they tend to “predict” very well new under the radar shows that get nominated at the Emmys for the first time: “Schitt’s Creek” and “What We Do in the Shadows” are good recent exemples. Like the Emmys, TCA voters choose their favorite shows going by TV season, unlike most award shows for television.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    Manav
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    #1204959677

    TCA is obviously very different from the Emmys, but they are definetely not a non-factor. They are an extremely well way to measure buzz pre-Emmy nominations and they tend to “predict” very well new under the radar shows that get nominated at the Emmys for the first time: “Schitt’s Creek” and “What We Do in the Shadows” are good recent exemples. Like the Emmys, TCA voters choose their favorite shows going by TV season, unlike most award shows for television.

    Well I should not have said “non factor” but I disagree they’re a good way to measure buzz. They’re a bunch of professionals without a televised show to grant/take away momentum from contenders. They rarely tell us stuff we don’t know beforehand.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204959698

    They rarely tell us stuff we don’t know beforehand.

    And yet they were the only awards body to nominate predictions centre 100/1 odd contenders Schitt’s Creek, The Mandalorian, Catherine O’Hara and What We Do in the Shadows just before the Emmys did the same year…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204959706

    With each passing episode of Hacks, the chances that the show might upset Ted Lasso is increasing and the chances that Jean Smart might lose is decreasing.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    Couverture
    Joined:
    Jun 16th, 2019
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    #1204959773

    And yet they were the only awards body to nominate predictions centre 100/1 odd contenders Schitt’s Creek, The Mandalorian, Catherine O’Hara and What We Do in the Shadows just before the Emmys did the same year…

    Even the Euphoria nomination in drama showed that it had the potential to be in awards conversation and not just be seen as a teen show (though that looks to be short lived now).

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    Onion
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    Aug 1st, 2015
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    #1204960061

    With each passing episode of Hacks, the chances that the show might upset Ted Lasso is increasing and the chances that Jean Smart might lose is decreasing.

    Hopefully so! I loved the first season but this one is just getting better and better. “The Captain’s Wife” is my favorite episode of the show so far.

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