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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 11)

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    alittle03
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    #1204983230

    I personally preferred Anthony Carrigan’s work this season, especially after what he achieved in the finale, but this is my favorite season of Winkler’s so far.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204983232

    Hader & Goldberg > Winkler > Carrigan > Root

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    probablyROB
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    #1204983270

    Winkler is a fine winner and while he had more to do I don’t believe he was better than Carrigan. Carrigan overtakes every scene he’s in no matter who he’s in a scene with or what the plot is in that moment.

    If Emmys were given based on screen time then Winkler would have the edge. But Carrigan’s performance was better and just as nuanced. He could make you laugh and break your heart in multiple scenes this year in a way nobody else in the cast could. That shouldn’t be overshadowed by slightly less screen time in my opinion.

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    estrelas
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    #1204983298

    Finished S3 of Barry.

    I need this to sweep. Show of the year, for me. Phenomenal season, from start to finish and that finale was incredible. Goldberg, Hader, Winkler, Carrigan, all amazing and the first two, especially, should be winning. A-level game from everyone.

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    wolfali
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    #1204983344

    Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    1. Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso – The incumbent (and SAG nominated) winner.

    2. Henry Winkler, Barry – He’s only more beloved than he was when he won in 2018, Barry is arguably stronger than it was last time round and whilst I haven’t seen most of this season of the show yet, it does feel like the chatter around him is quite loud following that finale. He obviously lost last time round and got snubbed at SAG for Andrew Scott which could mean that the consensus around who is the supporting actor MVP of Barry has shifted (as oftentimes is the case with shows that boast supporting ensembles as strong as it as they get older like say The Handmaid’s Tale). However it feels like with the passage of time people have appreciated Winkler’s work on the show more than they may have in season 2 when people were singing Anthony Carrigan and Stephen Root’s praises from the top of their lungs and there was even a debate on discussion forums like this over whether his work was overrated or not. Barry is obviously not as big a cultural phenomenon as Game of Thrones was (although to be fair hardly anything is) but I don’t think it’s impossible for Winkler to pull a Dinklage and win in spite of facing internal competition and having lost before under this system. There’s no doubt he’s definitely beloved enough to pull it off.

    3. Anthony Carrigan, Barry – NoHo Hank has arguably become a much bigger fan favourite and was quite prominent in the opener of this season (which admittedly is the only episode of season 3 I’ve managed to get to see). If some voters also have been too occupied by other matters to get as far ahead in the season as I have, Carrigan will be at the top of their minds when they think of the season. If they’re watching in real time he’ll also be on top of their minds due to the show’s recency.

    4. Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – There’s no doubt The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel will be weaker this go round than it ever has been even if it does over-perform on nominations morning because for the first time in its run it’s not going to be in the top 3 in the series race. But even then Shalhoub’s performance on this show and his overall stature as a stage and small screen actor just feel too beloved for him to miss. Both him and Borstein (and their characters) are still widely considered to be the standouts of the show. Of course one can argue that it’s a moot point considering SAG’s affinity for repeats and their greater love for Maisel as a show compared to the Television Academy but I don’t think it’s any coincidence that he repeated there, for a season in which many people thought he had a drop in quality of material, in spite of going on to lose at the Emmys.

    5. David Hyde Pierce, Julia – I am aware he is drifting in the odds as we get closer to round one of voting but ironically I’m feeling more confident in him as time goes on (although I am much more bullish about Julia as a whole than others with its industry friendly subject matter and strong audience ratings). His character is almost directly tied to Lancashire’s in ways we’ve seen with other just as prominent supporting performances that have coattailed to their leads before but also this is a comeback role for a highly regarded character actor and 4 time Emmy winner for one of the biggest comedies of the 1990s and 2000s. With recent industry reports that older voters in the television academy have “eaten up” Julia and that HBO is confident in Lancashire “at least” getting nominated, I think sentimentality can bring him along for the ride. I also think when you have a race in as much flux as this one it tends to be those with ascendant momentum who capitalise form this. Your Yvonne Orjis, your Cecily Strong’s, your Mark Duplasses etc and whilst it remains to be seen how Julia performs overall, I just think Pierce has the right ingredients to pull something similar to those performers off.

    6. Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks – Sure he got in because of the weak field last year but whilst it remains to be seen as to what and how many trophies it actually wins, Hacks feels like a much stronger player in the series race than it was last time round and I think that visibility around it this year will propel it to higher positions in the nominations round of voting than it might ought to be. For me if Clemons-Hopkins could even stand out enough from the show to some of these voters to get in last year, weak field or not, then why shouldn’t he be able to get in this year if the show is actually win competitive for comedy series and he actually has meaty material this time round?

    7. Paul W. Downs, HacksHacks overall feels like the show in this race with the most consistent amount of momentum due to voters having watched or talked about it at some point throughout the season. Season 1 lest we forget technically finished airing during this cycle, the show was dominant during the winter awards and has now finished airing its second season just as Emmy voting begins. Downs received some standout notices for his performance in the last two episodes of the season and whilst I wouldn’t nominate him personally, there’s no doubt he’s had a much more significant role as an actor in this season with the Kayla/Jimmy sub-plot getting a greater focus this time round. But I guess the main reason I have him in is because he’s one of the show’s creators and whilst the fact that couldn’t help propel him to a nomination last time round could be a strike against him, the fact he’s now technically an Emmy winner for writing the show I think brings him greater visibility here.

    8. Stephen Root, Barry – I only actually just recently slotted him in (I otherwise had the same lineup of 8 from just before I went off on to my break two months ago) just because I think the overall heat Barry has right now will help it to capitalise on nominations that it’s on the fringe for and Root feels like the exact type of character actor who tends to stick around as long as their show is still prominent in the top category. That being said the show has been off for such a long time that I’m also wary that there might not be as much of a drive to nominate him even though there is a drive to award Barry as a show. I mean for starters it’s not like anyone has been talking about his performance this go round as loudly as they were in 2019.

    <hr />

    9. Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live – Right now I only have McKinnon getting in for SNL as a NGNG prediction for the same reasons I currently don’t have either of the Black-ish leads in because both shows have already under-performed in less competitive fields with more buzz. But then at the same time part of me just wonders if Yang is going to be the new McKinnon were he’s just popular enough to get checked off even if people don’t care about SNL as a whole? Even though the show doesn’t have buzz he does seem to have a lot of individual buzz (he just had a Hulu film that was making waves on twitter released this week, was a part of Variety’s Actors on Actors for the second year in a row etc) and he has quite an advantageous ballot placement. Then again, aside from when McKinnon won twice, it’s not like actors have been that reactive to the buzz of the SNL repertoire that I can also just as well see him just getting edged out because of overall competition.

    10. Luke Kirby, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – Admittedly part of this is a hope-diction but at the same time I just feel like whenever anyone actually talks about this season of Maisel all anyone talks about is that Carnegie Hall episode and how good his performance was in it (TVLine named him the performer of the week for that episode, even though and pundits have been much softer on Maisel this year as a whole, and Amazon have been pairing him and Brosnahan in their campaign for the show together). If voters have seen this season of Maisel I would not be surprised if he showed up because the passion does seem to be there. It’s not like he isn’t a two time nominee and previous winner for this show and unlike Jane Lynch he isn’t already starting off behind two much more popular performances from his own show.

    11. Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso – Perhaps it was just me but did anyone else feel  like Hunt was kind of in when the predictions centre opened in March? He seemed to have a strong amount of individual buzz and whilst that (DGA nominated) Beard After Hours episode was polarising, people did seem to like him in it. I’m still wary of him getting in because of the visibility he has not only due to the show’s popularity but also with how distinctive the character is and Hunt’s role as a co-creator and writer on the show. Although at the same time I also think with how season 2’s buzz has essentially already peaked at this point due to airing so early on in the cycle that it’s an either or situation when it comes to Ted Lasso’s haul. Either they capitalise off of visibility and get multiple supporting acting nominations (I think if Hunt happens Nick Mohammed shouldn’t be too far behind) or they just get the SAG nominated 4 + Harriet Walter in and as we get closer to voting, I’m leaning more and more towards the latter happening.

    12. Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary – It’s a risk to even consider a role like this in predicting considering how the branch has shown apathy in the past to these sort of romantic leads in broadcast sitcoms (Jake Johnson, Adam Scott, John Krasinski to name a few examples) but I also feel like there seems to be a lot of passion behind Williams and he seems to have a lot of industry goodwill (whilst not a household name per se he’s been a fairly recognisable face in television for almost 20 years). He also has quite an advantageous ballot placement. If Abbott Elementary explodes on nominations morning (which it very could as I don’t think there’s any doubt at this point that there is a lot of hype behind it), I don’t think it’s implausible for him to come along for the ride.

    13. Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso – Whilst his character doesn’t exactly have the rooting factor he did in the first season of the show and was at the crux of some of the criticism of this season of the show there’s no doubt Mohammed has some meaty material to deal with in this season and that he’s the second most narratively prominent supporting actor on the show. The stacked field and unfavourable ballot placement will be a hindrance because some voters will need to seek out his name to check him off (and if they’re not too passionate about his work, would they really do so?) but if Hunt gets in, I don’t think he should be too far off.

    14. Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live – Like with Yang I’m taking a gamble that with SNL having already under-performed in another competitive, albeit comparatively weaker field, in 2019 that with the show essentially being buzzless and the field arguably being the most stacked it’s ever been that it will do so again. Thompson missed in 2019 and considering he didn’t win last year when he had enough momentum to, I honestly question how high up he was in the final round of voting if I’m honest. I don’t think it’s a stretch to argue that he was probably 7th or 8th in 2020. That being said it’s also not too much of a stretch to argue that h’s only become more beloved as a personality in the time since his 2019 miss considering these voters were more than happy with name-checking him last year in a weak field where they could have gone with Ted Danson(!) in a much more buzzed about show instead.

    15. Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso – He feels like someone who just happened because of the pandemic but at the same time there’s just something about him that just feels ominous? He feels like the exact type of character actor who sticks around and no one knows why and I feel like whilst Hunt has more in his favour due to his work behind the scenes on the show, the argument of someone like him (and on the drama side, Nicholas Braun) benefiting from playing such a distinctive character also fits here. I won’t predict him but, the weakness of the field aside, if he could get in for season 1 and help to cause a tie in voting then in theory there isn’t a reason why he can’t do something similar again per se. People have been nominated for less.

    16. LaKeith Stanfield, Atlanta – Sure he hasn’t been nominated before but does that really matter considering he’s become an Oscar nominated film star in the interim between the second and third seasons of this show? I have him this low because of competition and because I think Atlanta will under-perform retrospective to how well it did in 2018 but if these voters resort to name-checking in this field due to being stuck for options, I don’t see why the same arguments that have already been applied for some of these aforementioned contenders can’t also apply here.

    17. Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta – Perhaps I’m blind because I haven’t seen this season yet but I honestly am not seeing much chatter for his performance outside of a few voices periodically on this site. I’m sure he’s excellent as he usually is (he was win worthy, imo, for both seasons 1 and 2) but he feels a lot like the Yvonne Strahovski of Atlanta where he’s the fan favourite of the show who misses for the first season, gets in for the second when everyone is predicting the show to win and he’s win competitive and then misses on the show’s third go after it returns from a long hiatus with less overall hype. He could get in, but I think if he does Atlanta would probably be top 5/6 in the series race and with how this field has been shaping up in the past few weeks I just don’t know if that’s possible anymore.

    18. Taika Waititi, Our Flag Means Death – It would be an atypical lone nomination but it would also be remiss of me to ignore the overall hype he seems to have going into voting and the online buzz this show has been attracting (has any renewal news for a comedy had THIS many likes on Twitter?)

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    forwardswill
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    #1204983360

    Wolfali saving me a job this year! (Wish I had the time as my predictions were so much better when I did them). Great summary as ever. I think Kenan Thompson is probably too low and I’m not quite as confident in Hacks but all your reason is very sound.

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    Couverture
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    #1204983372

    I’m sure he’s excellent as he usually is (he was win worthy, imo, for both seasons 1 and 2)

    Finished this season a few days ago and he definitely is win worthy. Shame if he actually misses. Brilliant performance.

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    ScreamingFirehawk22
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    #1204983382

    Barry.

    Not a comedy.

    Drama sprinkled with comedic elements.

    Was category (and genre) fraud when HBO knew it had no chance in drama and, like The Flight Attendant, basically said when they slotted it into comedy, “Yeah we did that. What’re you gonna do about it?”. It remains, alongside Russian Doll, genre fraud.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204983433

    Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

    6. Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks – Sure he got in because of the weak field last year but whilst it remains to be seen as to what and how many trophies it actually wins, Hacks feels like a much stronger player in the series race than it was last time round and I think that visibility around it this year will propel it to higher positions in the nominations round of voting than it might ought to be.

    I’m surprised to see you saying this just because you’ve been compiling the mid season TV critics lists and Hacks as a whole as been jarringly absent and one of the least talked about potential series nominees in general this time around.

    My opinion is the second season was miles weaker than season one but that’s just my opinion. Just curious what exactly makes it feel like a stronger player this season? I’m actually shocked by how little people are talking about it this year. Even my friend group who were all about it last season are barely even acknowledging watching (one person asked if episode 8 was the finale because last year had 10 episodes). Last year, episodes would lead to really engaging discussions but this year nothing. And that is anecdotal but I haven’t seen or felt much buzz for this season outside of Jean Smart at all really.

    17. Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta – Perhaps I’m blind because I haven’t seen this season yet but I honestly am not seeing much chatter for his performance outside of a few voices periodically on this site

    If you go on the subreddit the universal consensus is he is giving the best performance of the show and many believe he should be considered the lead of the show over Glover or with Glover.

    This season is making a lot of people uncomfortable and triggering people who I think like to think of themselves as more woke or open-minded than they actually are. So, that to me explains why there is a lack of buzz outside of reddit (even there it is divisive). The complaint about there being so many stand alone episodes to me is really there to just obfuscate certain realities people don’t like to admit about themselves. Because most of them think those episodes are great too. They are constantly qualifying their negative takes by saying its still good. Which just plays disingenuous to me.

    He has three episodes that would make him competitive to win.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204983448

    Barry. Not a comedy. Drama sprinkled with comedic elements. Was category (and genre) fraud when HBO knew it had no chance in drama and, like The Flight Attendant, basically said when they slotted it into comedy, “Yeah we did that. What’re you gonna do about it?”. It remains, alongside Russian Doll, genre fraud.

    Your forum activity is giving Guest2018

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204983456

    Yeah, it’s a bit like white noise whenever I see people complaining about it. Barry was funnier than like 80% of nominees the past two years in comedy.

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    Victor
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    #1204983476

    I just want Kaley Cuoco to take her well earned trophy.

    FYC:

    All things Succession, Severance, Ted Lasso, The Great and The White Lotus! Also, Colin Firth and Janelle James while you're at it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204983478

    I’m surprised to see you saying this just because you’ve been compiling the mid season TV critics lists and Hacks as a whole as been jarringly absent and one of the least talked about potential series nominees in general this time around. My opinion is the second season was miles weaker than season one but that’s just my opinion. Just curious what exactly makes it feel like a stronger player this season? I’m actually shocked by how little people are talking about it this year. Even my friend group who were all about it last season are barely even acknowledging watching (one person asked if episode 8 was the finale because last year had 10 episodes). Last year, episodes would lead to really engaging discussions but this year nothing. And that is anecdotal but I haven’t seen or felt much buzz for this season outside of Jean Smart at all really.

    I think there’s a difference between being stronger when it comes to winning than being in a stronger position during the nominations round of voting. Passion tends to be the ruling factor with the former because the voting system is one built on the popular vote whilst the employment of an unlimited ballot when voting for nominations lends more of a hand towards consensus.

    It remains to be seen whether Hacks actually ends up being win competitive for anything this year (with how much passion new contenders like Brunson and even Lancashire have I don’t even think it’s implausible to say that not even Jean Smart is a lock to repeat, as likely as it may be) but I think it’s in a much stronger position during the nominations round of voting because it’s one of the only shows that isn’t returning from an awards hiatus (this is also why, although I no longer have it in my series lineup, I don’t think it’s impossible for The Flight Attendant to retain its series nomination) and it’s a show that most voters will have seen at some point in the past year whether because of season 1’s awards run or season 2 peaking in visibility just as voting is about to begin. In order to max out on nominations morning a show like Atlanta or even to an extent Maisel will need voters to have made time in these past few months to catch up on them because they’re coming back after a long time away (the last time both shows were on air was before the pandemic) and with less buzz whilst Hacks doesn’t necessarily need that because it’s a show voters have made themselves more and more familiar with this past calendar year. There will be some voters who will watch this season because they’ve only just started the show recently after the awards run it has had or because they know it’s a show that is a staple of the derby at the moment. The same can’t be said for many other shows in this category, even those that have the potential to overshadow it on nominations morning and be stronger in the series race. The Handmaid’s Tale got completely shut out in wins at the main ceremony in 2018 in favour of shows like The Americans, The Crown, Game of Thrones and Westworld but it received the most acting nominations of any drama that year because it was an incumbent winner in multiple categories that aired a follow up season in the heart of the Emmy season so pretty much everyone watched it and checked it off in round 1.

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204983574

    For their major shows, HBO is submitting the following:

    Hacks
    – The One, the Only (Writing)
    – There Will Be Blood (Directing)

    Barry
    – 710N (Directing & Writing)
    – candy asses (Writing)
    – starting now (Writing)

    https://variety.com/2022/awards/news/hbo-emmy-submissions-barry-euphoria-succession-1235293875/

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204983613

    Barry only submitting one to directing? HBO aren’t messing around, they came to win.

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