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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 11)

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    JV
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    #1204995432

    Saturday Night Live has gotten three nominations in one category only three times in 13 years, but all of those occasions were already with the unlimited ballot and two of those already with 8 slots.

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    wolfali
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    #1204995444

    I just feel like I’ve heard less chatter about it generally. In part that could be because of Maya Rudolph’s absence throughout the season but there is no Iceberg sketch like there was last year with Bowen Yang and I don’t even know if I could tell you a single skit Cecily Strong did after she did her Jeanine Pirro “farewell” song last year (that wasn’t really a farewell song).

    My assumption has always been that many Emmy voters aren’t actually tuning in religiously to SNL and are just watching the sketches as they see people in their circles talking about them online and as someone who would spend almost every Sunday morning seeing the cold opens online due to people around me talking about them I can’t even remember seeing one person talking about any sketch from this season (even as you’d expect there would be with how much source material there is from the outside world right now). The only chatter I saw was for Kate McKinnon’s farewell cold open and Natasha Lyonne’s hosting gig.

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    JV
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    #1204995458

    How would you define buzz?

    I’d have to be an awardsforecaster to define if a show has buzz or not. Talking with voters, seeing their reaction at in person FYC, their enthusiasm about it. Speaking about comedy, things like Black-ish, The Kominsky Method, Don Cheadle have never needed the common definition of buzz to get nominations. I don’t know why people are acting like a sketch show with multiple respected and Emmy nominee/winners should explode with “buzz” to get nominations.

    I’m not really doubling down on SNL getting multiple nominations as yes, this is a competitive field, but I just don’t think it’s unrealistic to think it will still do well.

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    wolfali
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    #1204995462

    but all of those occasions were already with the unlimited ballot and two of those already with 8 slots.

    The unlimited ballot doesn’t change that it had to wait for a field in which every single show with an incumbent supporting actress nominee had to be ineligible to get 3 supporting actress nominees again in the first place. GLOW was an awards also ran that Netflix weren’t even actively campaigning for in its 3rd season and SNL still couldn’t get a 3rd supporting actress in over Betty Gilpin (who was on slippery enough ice people were considering her getting snubbed).

    It’s not impossible but it just feels hard to imagine it getting three in a field like this where it’s up against 9 incumbent nominees from other shows who were probably top 3/4 in the nominations round of voting the last time they competed, buzzy newbies like Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building and a season of Hacks that could potentially break through even further with the actors branch.

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    leftyouthere
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    #1204995528

    Of the three SNL ladies, I’d say that Cecily is the only one actually did something notable and exciting this season with her Goober the Clown segment on Weekend Update. But overall the three of them just kept writing and performing the same sketches they’ve been doing since 2016. Kate and Aidy play inept old ladies! Cecily is a lounge singer! Kate likes cats and hams it up for the audience for way too long! Aidy is brash and horny!

    I’d say Kate gets the farewell nom, Aidy gets close but doesn’t quite make it and Cecily gets snubbed outright.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204995562

    Well worth a revisit. From the Kieran Culkin episode in October:

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    Manav
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    #1204995794

    You really think that in such a competitive year for comedy they are gonna default to three SNL actresses again?

    I meant it as that with McKinnon and Bryant gone, it’ll be hard for SNL to get 3 in for the next few years since Bryant was nominated two of those three years while McKinnon in all three. It didn’t mean that I think all are getting in this year although:

    Currently, I have Kate McKinnon and Cecily Strong along with Temple, Waddingham, Einbinder, Borstein and Goldberg although I’m contemplating with putting Aidy Bryant in by predicting an Abbott Elementary acting shutout outside Brunson which isn’t illogical when you look at the way non established network shows have performed recently and with Bryant’s farewell. There is definitely hopedicting on some level when people are predicting an SNL underperformance.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204995807

    Currently, I have Kate McKinnon and Cecily Strong along with Temple, Waddingham, Einbinder, Borstein and Goldberg although I’m contemplating with putting Aidy Bryant in by predicting an Abbott Elementary acting shutout outside Brunson which isn’t illogical when you look at the way non established network shows have performed recently and with Bryant’s farewell. There is definitely hopedicting on some level when people are predicting an SNL underperformance.

    Bryant has been underpredicted (in I think two of those cases, very) every time she’s gotten in. I feel like she’s kind of a blind spot for the board. I do agree she was doing some very similar schtick by the end (which may well be why she’s leaving) but I do think she’s kind of accessibly funny. I know last year was weak but I’m conscious of not ignoring both her and Kenan being double nominees.

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    Manav
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    #1204995817

    Something like this happened in 2017. Only Kate McKinnon was in Top 6 (or Top 8) while Vanessa Bayer was nowhere on the radar.

    Nominees:
    Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
    Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
    Vanessa Bayer, Saturday Night Live
    Kathryn Hahn, Transparent
    Judith Light, Transparent
    Anna Chulumsky, Veep

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    orangestraw
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    #1204995851

    I completely agree Bryant is being underpredicted. She has the same final season narrative, has been front and center all season, been heavy on the talk show circuit this year, just this week she was in Variety. And as kat_ebbs says, yes last year was weaker in Comedy but in Lead – they could have gone for Maya Erskine, Renee Elise Goldsberry, even Lily Collins. They went with Aidy for that fifth (or hell, maybe even 4th or 3rd, we just don’t know) slot. That to me suggests the Academy like her and her performances a lot.

    I wouldn’t personally nominate McKinnon or Strong this year, but Aidy has done much more than just old lady or horny this season. Yes she has done some of those. She’s had new writing partnerships and different material (Trend Forecasters, Kid Klash), meshed well with the newer cast, and can be relied on to keep a sketch together. SNL will be weaker without her, and I won’t be sad to see her nominated (if she is).

    Also if we’re going by buzz, i honestly don’t know what this means with regards to SNL. Every Sunday morning it still gets loads of airtime on Deadline, Variety, etc. and certain sketches have had the same impact as Bowen’s Iceberg. Cecily’s clown (as above) is one of them, but there was the Pete Davidson Squid Game pretape or Short Ass Movies or Chloe Fineman’s Inventing Anna parody, all widely shared. But maybe that speaks to what has been said in other threads about people’s own bubbles.

    FYC: "What We Do in the Shadows" and "Severance" in everything, Natasha Rothwell ("Insecure"), Sophie Thatcher ("Yellowjackets"), Renee Elise Goldsberry ("Girls5eva"), James Caverly, ("Only Murders in the Building")

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    Manav
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    #1204995853

    This is where I stand:-

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS
    (In terms of likelihood of a nomination)

    1. Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
    2. Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
    3. Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
    4. Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
    5. Sarah Goldberg, Barry
    6. Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    7. Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
    8. Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live

    Next In Line:
    9. Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
    10. Meg Stalter, Hacks
    11. Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    12. Yvonne Orji, Insecure
    13. Zazie Beetz, Atlanta

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    Couverture
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    #1204995859

    2019 feels like such an easy precedent for how SNL will perform here this year. Getting triple noms in weak years (Jessica Walter and Rita Moreno were in the top 8 in 2018) to just getting in the perennial namecheck McKinnon when the competition is strong.

    2018: McKinnon, Jones (2nd consecutive nom) and Bryant
    2019: Just McKinnon

    2021: McKinnon, Strong (2nd consecutive nom) and Bryant
    2022: Just McKinnon again?

    And Bryant hasn’t exactly been underpredicted. She was predicted last year, was in the top 10 the year she first got in an 8 nominee line-up and was even top 8 in the PC the next year when she missed the top 8 at the Emmys. Someone like Hinkle who has a more consistent track record isn’t faring much better either for example.

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    JV
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    #1204996594

    Comedy Series:
    1- Abbott Elementary
    2- Hacks
    3- Barry
    4- Ted Lasso
    5- Only Murders in the Building
    6- The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    7- Atlanta
    8- The Great

    Alt: Reservation Dogs

    Potential Surprise: Black-ish

    Comedy Actor:
    1- Bill Hader – Barry
    2- Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
    3- Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
    4- Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
    5- Donald Glover – Atlanta
    6- Anthony Anderson – Black-ish

    Alt: Nicholas Hoult – The Great

    Potential Surprise (?): Don Cheadle – Black Monday

    Comedy Actor:
    1- Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
    2- Jean Smart – Hacks
    3- Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    4- Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish
    5- Issa Rae – Insecure
    6- Sarah Lancashire – Julia

    Alt: Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant

    Potential Surprise: Pamela Adlon – Better Things

    Comedy Supporting Actor:
    1- Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
    2- Henry Winkler – Barry
    3- Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    4- Anthony Carrigan – Barry
    5- Carl Clemons Hopkins – Hacks
    6- Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live
    7- Kenan Thompson – Saturday Night Live
    8- Paul W. Downs – Hacks

    Alt: Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso

    Comedy Supporting Actress:
    1- Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
    2- Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    3- Sarah Goldberg – Barry
    4- Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
    5- Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
    6- Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
    7- Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
    8- Aidy Bryant – Saturday Night Live

    Alt: Amy Ryan – Only Murders in the Building

    Potential Surprise: Meg Stalter – Hacks

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    lvigario
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    #1204996649

    I just ask you to watch “This Way Up”, the 1st season wasnt on the ballot.
    But the second one is.
    It’s the best comedy show on TV right now.
    Please go watch it, please.

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    Mother Dináh
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    #1204996805

    Regarding the 2012 trio of SNL:

    Cecily Strong’s episode sadly became more culturally relevant then ever.

    Even though it’s the final season for Kate & Aidy, she’s the one who deserves a nomination the most.

    I feel like Aidy was already given her flowers for Shrill last year, and based on season 47, I think her 2012 peers will get more votes than her.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Cecily somehow pulled an upset and got the nomination based entirely on the material they submitted, but I’m confident that only 1 will be nominated, and that’ll be Kate.

    It’s okay since Cecily still has one season left until she leaves, and I still don’t see any of the more recent female cast members getting Emmy recognition soon.

    Bowen is the only contender in the cast who hasn’t been in the show for a decade.

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