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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 11)

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    ricardo505
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    #1204998809

    That is of course assuming we’re not sleeping on something random making a Schitt’s Creek-esque break through in this competitive field.

    Don’t forget What We Do In The Shadows two years ago. I don’t know, I think many would say we’re sleeping on The Afterparty, however I think we’re sleeping on Our Flag Means Death (but I’m not predicting it yet). I don’t think they’re gonna win, but I think it may get few nominations, including series.

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    wolfali
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    #1204998819

    Even if I find Schitts Creek sweep absolutely ridiculous (that Directing win is possibly one of the worst wins I’ve ever seen at the Emmys), lets be honest, it had no competition whatsoever. The Marvelous Mrs Maisel literally couldn’t even come back to writing in a massively weak year. And like it has been said, Schitts Creek was also the only show to hit every single category. It won quite easily.

    Ultimately I just feel like one either has to have not been following the race at the time or not really know how the Emmys actually work to think Schitt’s Creek actually had competition in the series race once we got to the ceremony. It’s like saying The Handmaid’s Tale and The Mandalorian were competition for The Crown last year.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    wolfali
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    #1204998830

    Don’t forget What We Do In The Shadows two years ago. I don’t know, I think many would say we’re sleeping on The Afterparty, however I think we’re sleeping on Our Flag Means Death (but I’m not predicting it yet). I don’t think they’re gonna win, but I think it may get few nominations, including series.

    I was toying with slotting in The Afterparty for writing because it reminded me a lot of Girls5Eva (a niche show that pundits and TV critics are drumming up and down for) but in spite of a modest showing on the midyear critics lists it got completely blanked at TCA in favour of other smaller series like Ghosts and Somebody Somewhere so I thought maybe not.

    Our Flag Means Death is an interesting one though because of visibility and Waititi seems to have a lot of hype going for him right now that he didn’t really have earlier in the cycle. I’m still unsure of whether the show is actually widely seen enough to get into such a competitive comedy series field but I have wondered if it might help What We Do in the Shadows rebound from its winter awards misses. I haven’t been predicting it for a series nomination all season long and I don’t think I will because I feel like Russian Doll has more visibility than we’re anticipating but it could just the but I feel like there’s something that feels zeitgeisty about Shadows at the moment?

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Onion
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    #1204998837

    Fingers-crossed that at least the writers have discovered The Other To.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204998842

    I feel super bullish on Netflix not missing the Comedy categories entirely, and I’m starting to wonder if Oh will happen over Lyonne. Granted, 2021 was MUCH weaker than 2019, but Oh did get a SAG nod, which Lyonne couldn’t do.

    FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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    wolfali
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    #1204998852

    Fingers-crossed that at least the writers have discovered The Other To.

    The fact that Helene Yorke will probably miss comedy actress when she should be challenging Smart and Brunson for the win is depressing.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    J
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    #1204998924

    What are the odds of Only Murders In The Building getting a better chance since it’s second season is being released during voting?

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    forwardswill
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    #1204998929

    What are the odds of Only Murders In The Building getting a better chance since it’s second season is being released during voting?

    Voting has closed

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    wolfali
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    #1204998959

    Sheryl Lee Ralph just got invited to become a voting member of the AMPAS (as did Joanna Scanlan woo hoo!)

    https://www.oscars.org/news/academy-invites-397-membership

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Nick Name
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    #1204998961

    Voting has closed

    Maybe J was talking about the final voting which closes one day before the season finale.

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    ricardo505
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    #1204999004

    I was toying with slotting in The Afterparty for writing because it reminded me a lot of Girls5Eva (a niche show that pundits and TV critics are drumming up and down for) but in spite of a modest showing on the midyear critics lists it got completely blanked at TCA in favour of other smaller series like Ghosts and Somebody Somewhere so I thought maybe not.

    Our Flag Means Death is an interesting one though because of visibility and Waititi seems to have a lot of hype going for him right now that he didn’t really have earlier in the cycle. I’m still unsure of whether the show is actually widely seen enough to get into such a competitive comedy series field but I have wondered if it might help What We Do in the Shadows rebound from its winter awards misses. I haven’t been predicting it for a series nomination all season long and I don’t think I will because I feel like Russian Doll has more visibility than we’re anticipating but it could just the but I feel like there’s something that feels zeitgeisty about Shadows at the moment?

    Waititi has three shows this year, so he’s known by the industry. But didn’t Reese Witherspoon and Aaron Paul didn’t get a single nomination from three different programs few years ago?

    Onion mentioned The Other Two. We just have to wait and see if HBO Max will help the show after moving from Comedy Central. The fact the show aired a long time ago destroys its chances IMO.

    I can see seven shows locked/nearly locked shows. The last spot is unpredictable. Maybe they could repeat 2020 and nominate Curb Your Enthusiasm without Larry David (and I’m currently predicting it), maybe they’ll go with Emily In Paris again, which would be very embarassing. Let’s hope for a surprise (and new) nominee.

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    wolfali
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    #1204999012

    Waititi has three shows this year, so he’s known by the industry. But didn’t Reese Witherspoon and Aaron Paul didn’t get a single nomination from three different programs few years ago?

    True but I feel like being in contention for three performances (like Witherspoon and Paul in 2020) and being in contention for having key behind the scenes roles on three different shows provoke different responses largely due to the different branches voting for them. I feel like (actually a bit, although not totally, like with Witherspoon in 2020) with Waititi there’s a certain amount of respect towards his work behind the scenes on three momentous pieces of television of the year. Especially with the type of landmark representation both Our Flag Means Death and Reservation Dogs provide for groups that are often under-represented and excluded in their genres. Witherspoon and Paul had the disadvantage of playing characters in multiple shows with similar genres and target audiences and thus the argument of “they’re playing the same character” was levelled towards them (this was something I remember being very prominent with Witherspoon online that season).

    I can see seven shows locked/nearly locked shows. The last spot is unpredictable. Maybe they could repeat 2020 and nominate Curb Your Enthusiasm without Larry David (and I’m currently predicting it), maybe they’ll go with Emily In Paris again, which would be very embarassing. Let’s hope for a surprise (and new) nominee.

    Curb Your Enthusiasm is very tempting for me because I feel like (a bit like with Better Call Saul) it has a strong amount of support from certain sections of the Television Academy and has been able to get in year after year as a result of that in spite of under-performing with say the actors. Recently I’ve been more tempted to predict The Great though because I question if we’ve been looking into it missing PGA and WGA nominations too much when its grown in industry visibility from its first season and managed to attract support from the below the line guilds this year (something its first didn’t). Again not an awards body whose results are to be relied on when it comes to predicting a series nomination but I do find it noticeable that it managed to make it in with the Set Designers Guilds nominations in spite of competition being stiff (they have both shows from the latter half of 2021 and the first half of 2022 being eligible). A Good Place esque haul of two acting nominations and a series nod wouldn’t surprise me (I think writing is very unlikely with how stiff the field is).

    As for other new series the main one I was considering was Julia purely because of its industry friendly premise and HBO having being campaigning for it quite actively  but whilst I do think the recipes for it to over-perform are still there I’ve lowered my expectations to one or two acting nominations at best. One I’ve become recently tempted by (or not remotely close to predicting) is Peacemaker. In part because of visibility but also because people seem to really like and respect it? It isn’t comparable to The Mandalorian in terms of critical support (the latter had much more than the former on its debut season) but it wouldn’t surprise me if it did randomly show up for a series nod due to a lack of consensus and being a respected genre show that is a spin off of a film franchise.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Manav
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    #1204999033

    The table I posted was based on the competition which seemed BEFORE THE ACTUAL AWARDS took place. In hindsight, things changed but the Predictions leading upto the ceremony is what I accounted.

    2012: Girls was a threat that year
    2013: Definetely not inevitable, 30 Rock came strong winning Casting and Writing.
    2015: This one was mostly only Veep vs Transparent
    2019: I’d say it was only Fleabag vs The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    2020: I think The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel was the only competition against Schitt’s Creek

    2010: I’d say Mad Men vs Nothing actually. Maybe Breaking Bad.
    2012: Mad Men definetely was a threat in 2012, even more so than Downton Abbey I’d say.
    2017: Westworld was no threat that year. It was Stranger Things vs The Handmaid’s Tale only.

    2012: no. 97% odds were in favour of Modern Family pulling a three peat mainly due to the fact that it had come off a PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA sweep.
    2013: Agreed, I think it was 30 Rock vs Modern Family.
    2015: was it? The incumbent Five time winner was definitely in the race despite missing Directing for the first time. Although in hindsight, it does appear it was just Veep vs Transparent
    2019: Hard disagree. More people predicted Veep doing into the ceremony than Fleabag or Maisel while I read a lot of articles + odds which even counted Barry in.
    Maybe it was Veep + Maisel + Fleabag going into the ceremony.
    2020: I agree. It’s revisionist to think Schitt’s Creek was a lock going into the Ceremony or before Creative arts because (a) a lot (and by that I mean A LOT) of people had Insecure as a definite threat due to how deserving it was and because of the BLM as well. Maisel was ofc the prime competitor for Schitt’s Creek and it’s hilarious how you all try to pretend that you all thought Schitt’s Creek had the Series win wrapped up. After the sweep, yes in hindsight it was inevitable. But it wasn’t going into the ceremony or before Creative arts.

    2010: hard disagree but you have a point. Mad Men was overwhelmingly the favourite 🙂
    2012: True. I personally think after reading the Predictions and
    Odds of the time that it was a three way race.
    2017: Well, I think you’re right after the Creative arts. But I do think the sheet power of 23 nominations plus the fact that it was win competitive in major categories could have seen Westworld as a dark horse.

    But like seriously, it wasn’t. I understand thinking this before SC swept. But surely hindsight tells us that there was no competition at all.

    That’s Exactly what I’m trying to say. Challengers for the series win before the creative arts or before the actual ceremony. Because else in 2012, it was just Homeland if you look back in hindsight since it won Writing + both leads+ editing+ casting. Hindsight tells a different story than the actual proceedings to the ceremony.

    Schitt’s Creek literally swept every category. How can y’all still be trying to suggest it wasn’t inevitable as a series winner?

    Refer to above. 🙂 As someone who defends every win for Schitt’s Creek, even I have to concede it wasn’t as big of a lock as people are showing it to be before the event actually happened.

    Ultimately I just feel like one either has to have not been following the race at the time or not really know how the Emmys actually work to think Schitt’s Creek actually had competition in the series race once we got to the ceremony. It’s like saying The Handmaid’s Tale and The Mandalorian were competition for The Crown last year.

    While I wasn’t actively following the race at the time, I did go back to read the Gold Derby Comedy Nominations Reaction 2019 forum and it was very revealing since it was evident people thought Schitt’s Creek was the frontunner yet had competition from Maisel (specifically) and Insecure. So you need to have been revisionist or a great astrologer/prognosticator to think Schitt’s Creek had it wrapped up.
    But seriously? THT vs The Crown is NOT like Maisel vs Schitt’s Creek.

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    wolfali
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    #1204999047

    But seriously? THT vs The Crown is NOT like Maisel vs Schitt’s Creek.

    You’re right.

    The Handmaid’s Tale season 4 was at least actually nominated for writing.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204999056

    The moment the nominations were announced, Schitt’s Creek was winning. No one thought it’d pull off a full (and undeserving) sweep tho.

    Schitt’s Creek was like The Crown S4, everyone knew it was winning but no one knew how big of a winner would be.

    Btw, THT was nowhere near a win against The Crown, people thinking Moss would upset were kidding themselves, the show is still liked by the Academy but their winning time is over, it even lost every craft category nod it got.

    At least Maisel got some love there for it’s third season.

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