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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 12)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205003381

    Kat, I reckon it’s an American thing. I think it’s a bit twee and contrived for our palates.

    Maybe, but the main thing I hear isn’t the tone, it’s that the mockumentary style is derivative (or some variation of that) which I don’t think is an Australian thing. And…I can’t really argue with that?

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1205003528

    But I don’t think Abbott’s going to do as well as a lot of people

    Yeah I really don’t see it getting 2 Supporting Actress slots and Directing this time around. Even James isn’t locked for the nomination because you just never know how the actors will feel about a new show. Atlanta only got Glover in for season 1 for example (and since I mentioned this category too, it’s worth noting that it had the advantage of him being on the ballot for Directing). It’s entirely possible that Abbott’s nomination ceiling for now is Series, Actress, Writing and Casting.

     

     

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    Benjamonster86
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    #1205003737

    I think Abbott is a near lock to get in for Series, Lead Actress, Supporting Actress (James) and Writing. Beyond that, we’ll see. And any talk of them winning any of those categories, we’ll see. But I don’t see Brunson (or anyone) being able to overtake Jean Smart in any scenario.

    My blog: http://benjamonsterstv.blogspot.com/

    My site: https://peaktvdatabase.weebly.com/

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205003754

    It’s entirely possible that Abbott’s nomination ceiling for now is Series, Actress, Writing and Casting.

    I also don’t think anyone should see that as disappointing. If somoeone told most people here a new network comedy would be in line for that at the start of the cycle most of us would have rolled our eyes and politely told them they were out of touch. It’s a terrific result if ABC go seamlessly from Black-ish to Abbott.

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    Almond
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    #1205004045

    Anyone knows when producer credits get posted/updated for program categories? Like mid August?

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    Bee
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    #1205004324

    I doubted how much Abbott would impact the nominations some time ago but now I feel like its buzz is too through the roof to just do the bare minimum. Theoretically it could just be relegated to 4 major noms but it’s being pushed so hard and has a socially relevant message on the education system.

    Also, I’m not sure if I would compare this much to Atlanta? That’s a “black” show that was critically adored, yes, but it was -and still is- a very bleak show compared to the sunny nature of Abbott. Donald Glover was THE star of the first season both in front and behind the camera. He was the one everyone paid attention to until Brian Tyree Henry and Zazie Beetz got more chewy material on the 2nd season. Meanwhile, Quinta Brunson is the success story for Abbott but there’s a lot of other focus on the supporting cast, especially Janelle James who is much more comically showy than BTH or Zazie Beetz were in the first Atlanta season.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205004331

    I doubted how much Abbott would impact the nominations some time ago but now I feel like its buzz is too through the roof to just do the bare minimum. Theoretically it could just be relegated to 4 major noms but it’s being pushed so hard and has a socially relevant message on the education system.

    I think this is perspective. I don’t really think it’s the bare minimum. Cases like Ted Lasso aren’t normal, in fact they’re highly abnormal. For what Abbott is (a network show with a budget not necessarily designed to be an awards player) I think four nominations ATL is great.

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    JV
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    #1205004336

    I might tank, but I don’t have the predictions center TOP 3 in Guest Actress – Comedy. Gonna take my chances with Wanda Sykes, who has three nominations in this category, and Quinta Brunson, too keep the A Black Lady Sketch Show streak going. I have Dolly Parton as well because… Why not ? Not really sure about Laurie Metcalf for Hacks because while it was a good performance I think it’s fairly easily to lose her in the mix within the events of the plot. Jane Adams is probably going to repeat her nom and I honestly believe she will win it.

    Harriet Walter and DeBose are probably near locks…

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1205004351

    Sykes did have a great sketch on the show (she plays a heckler), and given how her last two comedy specials were nominated and her multiple noms for Blackish despite the little-material in submitted episodes, she feels like a safe prediction to me.

    Confused at how she’s still at 100/1 odds

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    gabspss
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    #1205004363

    Jane Adams is probably going to repeat her nom and I honestly believe she will win it.

    Adams was indeed terrific this season on Hacks. It would be a very deserving win.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    24Kgirl
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    #1205004376

    I think this is perspective. I don’t really think it’s the bare minimum. Cases like Ted Lasso aren’t normal, in fact they’re highly abnormal. For what Abbott is (a network show with a budget not necessarily designed to be an awards player) I think four nominations ATL is great.

    Ted Lasso and Hacks I would say both overachieved for a season 1 show due to the pandemic impact and lack of other returning shows competing and really unrealistic to compare them to others. A season 1 getting 20 and 16 noms is not normal. If Abbott got 8 or more nominations that’s a huge win (especially since it likely won’t be too competitive in the below the line categories as it doesn’t have a production design element like a Maisel, Barry, Hacks or Ted Lasso).

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    wolfali
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    #1205004378

    I might tank, but I don’t have the predictions center TOP 3 in Guest Actress – Comedy. Gonna take my chances with Wanda Sykes, who has three nominations in this category, and Quinta Brunson, too keep the A Black Lady Sketch Show streak going. I have Dolly Parton as well because… Why not ? Not really sure about Laurie Metcalf for Hacks because while it was a good performance I think it’s fairly easily to lose her in the mix within the events of the plot. Jane Adams is probably going to repeat her nom and I honestly believe she will win it. Harriet Walter and DeBose are probably near locks…

    I don’t have the same lineup as you but I do have Metcalf and Anderson missing and Lynch in 6th for similar reasons you’ve covered.

    Laure Metcalf is very deserving of a win nomination but I also don’t know with how brief her performance was if voters are really going to remember the work itself. With how minor both her and Kelly’s roles were I just wonder if it’s easy to conflate their performances with the performers just cameoing. That’s not the case with either Jane Adams, Harriet Sansom Harris, Ming Na-Wen and even Susie Essman who all play narratively prominent roles that are pertinent to the development of central characters on the show. I am predicting the former two because (alongside the fact that Adams is one of the incumbent nominees and had meatier material this time round) I think there’s an appreciation for both performers’ careers as character actors which is something that really sticks out in the minds of voters when they’re filling out their ballots because of how much the show really highlights women in comedy (something that was even more of a focus this season). This is partly why I predicted Adams last year (alongside her ballot placement and recency bias advantage) and I think with Harris this is something that can even propel her to a potential surprise win. Her character and the episode focused around her is at the heart of this season and I think there’s a sentiment around her finally getting her due (she got striking notices earlier this year for her appearance in Licorice Pizza for example).

    Gillian Anderson has good notices and has the advantage of being a recent and buzzy Emmy winner and TV awards sweeper (and of course being at the top of half the ballots of these voters alphabetically) but whilst I think The Great can over-perform our expectations and get both leads and the show in, I’m just not entirely sure how many voters will have seen her episode or even season 2. Of course with this nominating system and how lazy voters tend to be in these guest categories she might not need voters to have seen the season to get nominated but I think she faces more of a hurdle than say Fanning and Hoult though with them having season 1 goodwill and Anderson lacking that.

    As for Jane Lynch, I have her getting in because (whilst I’m sceptical about Gomez and Ryan being nominated) I think Only Murders in the Building could be a guest contender juggernaut and she’s very revered (and I might add very deserving too) but I’m perplexed by the confidence in her in the predictions centre. It’s a one episode performance (one voters could easily forget about in the sea of content and time passed since Only Murders debuted its freshman season) and she’s missed quite a few times when people have been predicting her (whether for her competition shows or even for season 3 of Maisel in 2020) so she isn’t exactly infallible. Comparatively Tina Fey has only missed for shows voters have either not seen or cared that much about (Girls5Eva, the later seasons of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) and has a much more narratively prominent role. I don’t see one getting in without the other tbh.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205004392

    but I also don’t know with how brief her performance was if voters are really going to remember the work itself.

    This is the same group that gave an Emmy to Margo Martindale in a tiny fraction of the amount of screen time that particular season. And I think they are pretty good comparisons in terms of prestige and perception within the industry. They are both extremely talented and highly respected character actresses. My feeling is she is a lock.

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    wolfali
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    #1205004407

    This is the same group that gave an Emmy to Margo Martindale in a tiny fraction of the amount of screen time that particular season. And I think they are pretty good comparisons in terms of prestige and perception within the industry. They are both extremely talented and highly respected character actresses. My feeling is she is a lock.

    But this is also the same group that snubbed Marisa Tomei (an Academy Award winning actress) for a performance with similar narrative weight in the second season of The Handmaid’s Tale (the incumbent drama series winner). As a recent Emmy winner in the most critically buzzed show on television who had a more prominent role in the first two seasons of her show, Margo Martindale was starting off 1st out of the guest contenders on her show who (whilst incredibly deserving) were either then unknowns or had arcs that were limited in episode count. Claire Foy was the same with The Crown season 4 as was Cherry Jones with Succession season 2 and The Handmaid’s Tale season 2 hanging episodes.

    Metcalf could very well get in (and she will probably be my choice for the win unless Sharon Stone gets nominated) but I don’t really think these situations are comparable. Just like Tomei with The Handmaid’s Tale season 2 she’s already starting off behind a main cast member (who in Tomei’s case was Samira Wiley, who of course went on to win that category) in Adams and is up against multiple performers who are also main cast members competing in these guest categories (like Kaitlin Olson) or are character actors who may not be as revered as Metcalf but are still quite revered in their own right and have bigger showcases in the season.

    If she was competing in any other field I’d be happy to call her a lock but in one that is as stacked as this one in both internal and external competition, I can just see her getting lost in the shuffle.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205004436

    Eh, Tomei had never been nominated by the TV Academy. It’s definitely not the same situation as Martindale within the TV Academy. Metcalf is an Emmy main stay and former winner to a much higher degree than even Martindale by a considerable amount.

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