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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 5)

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    Heptapod
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    #1204564119

    Dickinson is sitting with a 91 MC score but I know it’ll still get jack s**t in awards recognition even though it deserves nominations across the board and Steinfeld should take home a trophy

    Hailee Steinfeld

    FYC: Pamela Adlon (Better Things) Rose Byrne (Physical) Danielle Deadwyler (Station Eleven) Elle Fanning (The Great) Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) Hamish Linklater (Midnight Mass) Margaret Qualley (Maid) Renee Rapp (The Sex Lives of College Girls) Sophie Thatcher (Yellowjackets) Heléne Yorke (The Other Two)

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    wolfali
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    Comedy S. Actress
    (Assuming The Flight Attendant misses eligibility)

    1. Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso – The incumbent supporting actress winner of the incumbent series winner.

    2. Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – The two time Emmy winning champ in this category from a 20 time Emmy winning show and previous comedy series winner.

    3. Juno Temple, Ted Lasso – When shows win comedy series they tend to grow in nominations so I think Temple would be getting in regardless of how strong she was last year. Considering how well Ted Lasso performed in nominations for season, its explosion in popularity this season and Temple’s own notices this year I see no reason to doubt her getting in. I even have her in my SAG predictions!

    4. Sarah Goldberg, Barry – She feels the weakest in passion out of the Barry main ensemble but she ultimately is facing zero internal competition and her show was arguably the series runner up in 2019 and is getting a spring release so if it is a strong series contender it would be bizarre for her to miss.

    5. Hannah Einbinder, Hacks – The co-lead of last year’s series runner up who is also getting a spring release. The only way I can really see her missing is if Hacks‘ support is weaker this time round but between the way it broke through last year, the fact it’s set for quite a strong guild performance and how promising its finale was… I’d be surprised if Hacks doesn’t grow in strength. Maybe not this year but it definitely strikes me as a show that can win comedy series in the future.

    6. Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live – Her support seems very independent from SNL‘s (she even got in when the show tanked in 2019 due to the competitive field). Could even win if this is indeed her final season (I hope not, I love McKinnon but two Emmys are enough and I’m tired of seeing SNL win and get nominated for so many undeserving Emmys over actual deserving comedy series).

    7. Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – I’d probably say at this stage in my predictions this is where I feel like things become a bit more open and for the lack of a better word, vulnerable. Hinkle has made it in for the last two seasons of Maisel but in 2019 the show led the nominations and won four Emmys and in 2020 the show was arguably the series runner up, again led the nominations for comedy and was competing in a weaker field. Who knows maybe Maisel can do quite well in nominations again because it’s airing in spring and the actors and crafts both seem to disproportionately support it but at the end of the day Hinkle seems to be someone who is dependent on the strength of their show. I have Maisel in 5th in series right now so I have Hinkle in 7th. If I have it in 4th I might move Hinkle ahead of McKinnon. If I have it in 6th or 7th I’d probably drop her.

    8. Zazie Beetz, Atlanta – Her star has risen a lot since the show has been off air (although it’s not like no one knew who she was when she was nominated – Deadpool 2 was out two months before Emmy nominations voting that year). I think ultimately like Hinkle her chances depend on how strong her show is in series (it’s telling that just like Hinkle she couldn’t happen at the winter awards when her co-stars did). Right now I have Maisel ahead of Atlanta in my comedy series predictions so I have Hinkle ahead of Beetz but that of course can change.

    9. Amy Ryan, Only Murders in the Building – She definitely feels quite buzzy right now and it does feel weird to have her this low when I have Only Murders in the Building ahead of Atlanta and Maisel in my series predictions but I think it’s always difficult to tell how new series will perform in categories like the supporting and guest ones until we get past the winter awards and closer to nominations voting. I have my hopes high for Only Murders in the Building at the winter awards and Emmys but I also worry about the show’s momentum being killed (win wise/additional nominations wise) if it doesn’t win anything at the winter awards. Ryan feels like Julianne Nicholson/Gugu Mbatha-Raw where the nomination is the hurdle but the win is less so. I definitely think voters have seen all of Only Murders in the Building but it’s really just a question about how much passion they have for it and how much they remember it in nominations in June. If Ryan gets in at SAG or wins critics choice and/or the show ends up taking SAG ensemble then I will definitely move her up in my predictions (and to quite a high place too!) If she doesn’t or the show doesn’t do any of that then I will keep her around here because unlike Gomez, Martin and Short she feels very much on the bubble.

    10. Megan Stalter, Hacks – This woman has become such a viral meme outside of this show that in hindsight I’m kind of surprised she didn’t happen last year. But with Hacks bound to have greater visibility this year I can see her being added to the show’s nomination haul. Helps her performance is so outwardly comedic.

    11. Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live – She’s made it in the past two years but is it telling that she’s only made it in when the field was weak? Her work on the show has become more beloved since her first nom so I do think she is a threat to spoil here but I feel like the academy’s support for SNL has its limits.

    12. Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live – See Strong, although perhaps less “beloved”.

    13. Chloe Fineman, Saturday Night Live – I can see her have a breakthrough here like Bowen Yang last year (both were arguably nominated the year after they really made a strong landing with their work on the show) but it really depends on how the field progresses and whether she can get a sketch this season like the iceberg one Yang did last season.

    14. Annie Murphy, Russian Doll – So much is unknown about Russian Doll season 2. Murphy’s Emmy win does make me feel more confident that her support may not totally be dependent on the show’s but at the end of the day this is a competitive field so how strong a contender Russian Doll ends up being (and how strong her role on the show is) will dictate how strong she is as a contender. With how idiosyncratic the academy has been towards some performers who have joined their shows late I do worry she could get Andrew Scott’d.

    15. Phoebe Fox, The Great – Essentially the Brett Goldstein of The Great in which she’s the most prominent supporting actress on the show and is kind of the standout by default. If The Great ends up being a top player she can definitely come along for the ride.

    16. Kaitlin Olson, Hacks – I guess the precedence for an Olson nomination would be in Stephen Root’s for Barry the last time we had such a competitive field (someone whose been around for a long time making it in for a top series contender when it grows). That being said do many people feel passionate about Olson’s work on the show.

    17. Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso – Her performance seems to have attracted a lot of passion but she’s also a newcomer to the show and not a recognisable name which we’ve seen hurt performers here in the past. Likewise I feel like her buzz faded as quickly as it arrived.

    18. Poppy Liu, Hacks – The power of the unlimited ballot! I obviously don’t think Hacks will get four actresses in one category but there’s always a chance that if it gets a third it could be for her instead of Olson considering how more outwardly comedic her role is.

    19. Gillian Anderson, Sex Education – Unless it breaks through at SAG this year I’m quite sceptical of Sex Education making it in but Anderson will have visibility from The Great and The First Lady and is coming off an Emmy win for The Crown so it would be foolish to rule her out completely.

    20. Molly Shannon, The Other Two – The show has more visibility this go round as does she (thanks to The White Lotus) but then again this field is so competitive that I’m sceptical. I guess the precedence for a nomination for her would be with Andre Braugher getting in for Brooklyn Nine-Nine in spite of his show getting shut out due to how much passion his performance has and his status as a performer.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    methaddiction
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    #1204565033

    The amount of big contenders in the supporting categories.. 

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    wolfali
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    #1204565048

    The amount of big contenders in the supporting categories..

    When she sweeps…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    methaddiction
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    #1204565050

    When she sweeps…

     

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    wolfali
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    Does anyone else feel like Insecure is kind of buzzless? I’ve seen hardly any chatter about it.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    methaddiction
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    #1204565440

    Does anyone else feel like Insecure is kind of buzzless? I’ve seen hardly any chatter about it.

    I only ever see people talk about it on Twitter

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    Reis
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    #1204565447

    Does anyone else feel like Insecure is kind of buzzless? I’ve seen hardly any chatter about it.

    Sadly, I agree. I wasn’t able to watch the new episodes yet but even having a decent fanbase it isn’t enough to be competitive. And they still have Barry next year who will get full attetion from them.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204566051

    An aside, but I noticed NBC have Kenan Thompson hosting the People’s Choice Awards. Has he done any other awards hosting before? It doesn’t seem like a terrible choice and somewhat in line with the Cedric The Entertainer choice for CBS for this year’s Emmys.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204566411

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    Tyler
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    #1204566765

    Yeah, it’s really early but the clown segment was huge for Cecily.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204566781

    Cecily stays being the best SNL cast member

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    wolfali
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    As I said in my post about the supporting actress race I’m really torn when it comes to Cecily. We know she hasn’t managed to make it into more competitive fields in the past but it really feels like since her first nomination (of course not as a result of her nomination lol) people have become more fond of her work on the show.

    It probably doesn’t help her that we’ve seen voters go soft on SNL in the past and there are SO many contenders in supporting actress this year and so many of their shows are airing in the spring but if the argument for McKinnon to make it in is that her support has become more independent of SNL’s as time has gone by, then surely there’s an argument to be made that Strong is in a similar position no?

    It’s so messy predicting how this nomination system will play out when you have a field like this lol.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1204566814

    It also helps Cecily that Kate hasn’t even made an appearance this season yet.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC:
    The Great
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Severance
    The Batman

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    wolfali
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    #1204566820

    It also helps Cecily that Kate hasn’t even made an appearance this season yet.

    Although she undoubtedly will appear in the spring after her Joe Exotic show finishes shooting so in hindsight would that really help Cecily that much?

    Cecily stays being the best SNL cast member

    Yep. Cecily is the only one I wouldn’t mind seeing getting nominated in this field lmao.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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