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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Comedy Categories (Part 5)

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    wolfali
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    #1204533944

    Comedy Series

    (Assuming The Flight Attendant and Dead to Me miss eligibility)

    1. Barry (HBO) – It does feel admittedly a bit of a stretch to have it in first during the nominations stage but at the end of the day it’s the only show eligible here that is an incumbent acting, directing and writing winner at the Emmys and/or guilds. With a spring air date and there seeming to be a lot of anticipation for this season during its hiatus, if it delivers in quality there’s a strong chance it does a victory lap here. Perhaps helps it that no show since Veep (which in itself lost in 2019) has repeated in comedy series and that it fits the trend of the prevailing show being the one with the most recency buzz and overall love (à la Fleabag and Schitt’s Creek).

    2. Ted Lasso (AppleTV+) – The incumbent Emmy winner and likely winter awards frontrunner.

    3. Hacks (HBO Max) – One could argue it benefitted from there being a weaker field last year but regardless of whether the field was weak or not, winning actress, writing and directing as well as amassing 12 other nominations for an arguably “smaller” and “indie” show in its first season is still a huge achievement. With this only being the show’s beginning and it having the advantage of being more established and airing close to voting again Hacks could really perform well even in such a strong field.

    4. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) – The most talked about comedy of the moment. But it’s also October right now. If we’re basing its placement on how much buzz the show seems to have then this feels right because there’s no shortage of it. But that being said I think whether it remains in the top 5 will depend on whether it can win anything at the winter awards. Emily in Paris, The Flight Attendant, GLOW and Russian Doll are the only first season comedy series nominees under this current voting system to have been shut out in wins above the line. The Flight Attendant is the only one of those that ended up being a top tier series contender but it was also competing in a weaker field (and it lost all its above the line Emmys to other freshman shows). I guess to cut a long story short I think Only Murders in the Building will be a top contender and is pretty much locked in for a comedy series nomination right now (unless it under-performs in nominations at the guilds although that would be surprising). But how high it is in series and how much of a contender it is will depend on how it performs in wins at the winter awards which as we’ve seen in the past can make or break new shows.

    5. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon) – Maisel still won four Emmys and was nominated for sixteen others in the season it “under-performed” which is more than most shows can say here and it’s now airing in the spring for the first time in its run. Unless something goes horribly wrong it’s in. That being said it doesn’t feel like it’s going to really win anything above the line this year. The Mad Men of the comedy side haha.

    6. Russian Doll (Netflix) – Netflix seem to be intent on making sure in every interview they do with every industry outlet that it will be making eligibility, there did seem to be a little hype for it during filming and season 1 was quite a popular hit. That being said whilst season 2 will most certainly pick up from the end of season 1, so much feels unknown about this season. It could either end up anywhere from being the frontrunner to dropping like a dead fly in the Emmy race.

    7. Atlanta (FX) – Like Russian Doll so much feels unknown about it and unlike Barry doesn’t have as much industry love. That being said it feels like a show that is more respected than loved (a bit like Fargo) so I can definitely see it sticking around in a few categories even if it doesn’t win anything. The Spring air date will undoubtedly help it, whether the four year gap between its second and third seasons is going to is something that remains to be seen.

    8. The Great (Hulu) – The Emmys tend to play catch up in this category (perhaps because streaming provides greater visibility over time) and this seems best placed to be this year’s sophomore break out. It probably wasn’t that far off from getting in last time round considering it got into both writing and directing and it’s already had a bit of a breakthrough at the guilds (has any show ever received two SAG nominations without ever being nominated in comedy or drama series?)  for season 1. The guilds and winter awards will probably tell us more about how it will perform in this year’s Emmy field but I feel quite confident that had season 2 aired last spring it would have been a top tier contender in series.

    9. What We Do in the Shadows (FX) – After its breakthrough last season I feel like this is a show that I shouldn’t be underestimating but this season has almost not audience or industry buzz whereas it was the talk of the town when it aired last spring. The guilds will probably tell us more about its chances of a series nomination but it sort of reminds me of Pose. I think it will hang on to pretty much all of its non series nominations (maybe not casting) because it does seem to still have a lot of passion but it’s a competitive field and the season doesn’t seem to have made as much noise for it to really breakout as much here.

    10. Insecure (HBO) – The talk of the town last season but then it got completely blanked at all the major guilds in spite of arguably being top 3 in series at the Emmys. Like What We Do in the Shadows it will be interesting to see how it performs at the guilds with it airing closer to voting and the final season narrative  should help it but I can see it just as well end up like Silicon Valley. Last season it benefitted from peaking at the right time during voting and being HBO’s number one priority. Neither of those feel like they’ll be the case this time round.

    11. Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO) – If I’m honest this gives me Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt vibes. Its held on as a lower tier contender for a while (partly due to having such a respectable pedigree) but it kind of under-performed in last year’s weak field? Not only did Jon Hamm miss but so did Larry David. The show got into casting and editing but those were its only other major nominations outside of series and that was for a spring release lol. I guess there is a chance in the end its respected enough to get back in and the field ends up thinning out but if it couldn’t grow in nominations when comedy was a literal wasteland then it’s hard to see it do so much with a competitive field tbh.

    12. Black-ish (ABC) – It has a sentimental narrative this time round (it’s arguably the last network comedy standing at the Emmys and it is on its final season) but voters arguably showed last year that they’re only really interested in returning to Black-ish when there’s nothing else to go to.

    13. Reservation Dogs (FX on Hulu) – I won’t go into overdrive on this one because a lot of the arguments for it have been set out multiple times already but it does seem to be a show the industry is behind. Perhaps that’s something reflected in this field in a nomination for comedy writing instead of series but it does seem to have a lot of potential.

    14. Pen15 (Hulu) – A niche writers branch favourite that really should have broken out more last year than it actually did. Perhaps it will break out one day here if it ends up growing as a show but right now I’m getting Catastrophe vibes.

    15. Sex Education (Netflix) – It usually takes a while for under the radar shows that the industry hasn’t immediately jumped on to break through (Schitt’s Creek took two seasons after it was originally added onto Netflix to get into comedy series) so it really is now or never here. It sucks that Netflix keeps paying this show dust with their Emmy campaigning.

    16. The Other Two (HBO Max) – The Other Two seems to have greater audience and industry visibility than it did when its first season originally aired (thanks HBO Max!) and is just as loved but at the same time it has returned to a field that is just as competitive as the one it last competed in. Never say never although a potential writing nomination (although that category already seems to be just as competitive this year) seems like its best bet.

    17. Cobra Kai (Netflix) – It broke through more or less as soon as it moved to Netflix although even Netflix seems to have forgotten that.

    18. Emily in Paris (Netflix)

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Onion
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    #1204534004

    Manifesting a writing win for What We Do jn the Shadows’ “A Farewell”.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204534050

    The first 10 shows you listed all seem like strong contenders 💀 the competition is going to be wild.

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    wolfali
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    #1204534066

    The first 10 shows you listed all seem like strong contenders 💀 the competition is going to be wild.

    When Amazon and PopTV throw in secretly filmed new seasons of Fleabag and Schitt’s Creek at the last minute…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Manav
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    #1204534089

    I feel Maisel is always a threat. It was most likely no.2 in series both in 2019 and 2020. It gets a lot of BTL nominations which always helps and it has developed a large fan base.

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    wolfali
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    #1204534106

    I feel Maisel is always a threat. It was most likely no.2 in series both in 2019 and 2020. It gets a lot of BTL nominations which always helps and it has developed a large fan base.

    Perhaps in individual categories it is (I do think Shalhoub could win especially if we end up with a field that’s like four Ted Lasso actors and three Barry ones) but I don’t think it’s ever winning series again unless the writers embrace it again.

    You really need consensus to win and get nominated for series and Maisel always seems to have enough to be a top tier series contender but is lacking when it comes to the actual win.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    methaddiction
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    (I do think Shalhoub could win if we end up with a field that’s like four Ted Lasso actor and three Barry ones)

    And nothing for SNL.. 

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    Manav
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    #1204534128

    Maisel compensates it’s above the line losses by its below the line wins. Wasn’t it once the second most awarded in tech categories one year after GOT?

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    Manav
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    And nothing for SNL..

    They should really be in a separate category. It always feels like cheating for them to gobble up slots that can go to others.

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    wolfali
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    And nothing for SNL..

    Spill sweetie.

    Now we need to get them to block the supporting ladies of SNL…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Manav
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    #1204534146

    I’m all in for the Comedy Supporting Actress race this year. Bloodbath.

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    kat_ebbs
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    Comedy Series

    Thoughts on Girls5Eva after their writing nom? (I’m assuming they make eligibility) Peacock’s audience size might have the CBS All Access problem I fear

    I also think Tudyk and only Tudyk is a fringe possibility for Resident Alien though I’ll wait for CCA and to see if they actually campaign next year (if they don’t campaign with Borstein in guest the I’ll cross them off). He needs a signal boost.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204534164

    They should really be in a separate category. It always feels like cheating for them to gobble up slots that can go to others.

    If they default to SNL again this year with this field for anything more than one nom that whole system has issues.

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    Manav
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    If they default to SNL again this year with this field for anything more than one nom that whole system has issues.

    Kate McKinnon will get in. She will get in as long as she’s on SNL,i.e., forever.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204534178

    Kate McKinnon will get in. She will get in as long as she’s on SNL,i.e., forever.

     

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