Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 10)

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749321

gabspss wrote:

I would add Lisa Emery too!

I definitely think she’s in contention if Netflix submits her (I actually forgot about her in my original post lol).

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

[Manav Joined: Dec 21st, 2019 Topics: 50 Posts: 5121 View Predictions]

#1204749464

While Lisa Emery can totally get nominated, it’s not a safe bet at all considering Janet McTeer was snubbed even though many people considered her a near lock.

[methaddiction Joined: Aug 1st, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 4528 View Predictions]

#1204749474

Manav wrote:

While Lisa Emery can totally get nominated, it’s not a safe bet at all considering Janet McTeer was snubbed even though many people considered her a near lock.

Lisa Emery has been in the show from the start though.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749476

Manav wrote:

While Lisa Emery can totally get nominated, it’s not a safe bet at all considering Janet McTeer was snubbed even though many people considered her a near lock.

I do agree she’s not locked.

But every year is different and Emery already has two advantages McTeer and Pelphrey didn’t. Ozark could peak towards Emmy nominations voting due to the final seven episodes being released in May and she’s been on the show from the start so doesn’t suffer the exact same hurdles that McTeer and Pelphrey did.

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 4975 View Predictions]

#1204749539

wolfali wrote:

she’s been on the show from the start so doesn’t suffer the exact same hurdles that McTeer and Pelphrey did.

Yeah the stat on getting in almost entirely if you were an original cast member (sans the Crown with the revolving cast) is quite damning. There’s only a handful of exceptions in drama

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749555

kat_ebbs wrote:

There’s only a handful of exceptions in drama

And they always tend to be big names/Emmy favourites with performances at the crux of the season of their show’s buzz (Streep, Whitford, Brown). Pelphrey was at the crux of season 3’s buzz but wasn’t a big name whilst McTeer was an Academy Award nominated actor but not as buzzy as some of her co-stars in season 3.

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749604

The Gilded Age opens with 463k viewers. 

In retrospect to linear ratings for premieres of other HBO shows in the past 6 months:

1. Succession season 3 – 564k viewers
2. Curb Your Enthusiasm season 11 – 486k viewers
———————————————————————————————–
3. The White Lotus – 420k viewers
4. Insecure season 5 – 308k viewers
5. The Righteous Gemstones season 2 – 291k viewers
6. Euphoria season 2 – 254k viewers
7. Scenes From a Marriage – 224k viewers
8. Landscapers – 112k viewers

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

[braydenfitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 88 Posts: 7564 View Predictions]

#1204749624

That’s outstanding for a Monday night.

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 4975 View Predictions]

#1204749634

wolfali wrote:

The Gilded Age opens with 463k viewers.  In retrospect to linear ratings for premieres of other HBO shows in the past 6 months:

Am I missing something there because that’s an article on Murray Bartlett?

Do we know the 18-49 on that because this show seems less likely to get a big streaming pick up compared to, say, Euphoria

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749636

kat_ebbs wrote:

Am I missing something there because that’s an article on Murray Bartlett?

My apologies about that. I mustn’t have copied and pasted the article properly and pasted the one I had prior (I posted in the comedy thread about Bartlett).

Here’s the Deadline article:

Other highlights for HBO ratings include the premiere of The Gilded Age on Monday night. The long-awaited series from Downton Abbey creator Julian Fellowes drew in a solid 1 million viewers across all HBO platforms, topping HBO’s best Monday night debut since Chernobyl’s on May, 6 2019.

(Source)

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

[Manav Joined: Dec 21st, 2019 Topics: 50 Posts: 5121 View Predictions]

#1204749641

The viewing numbers are really good for Gilded Age and it has generated some Twitter buzz as well. Let’s see if it can keep increasing its viewership per week.

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 4975 View Predictions]

#1204749660

Yeah my instincts were right –  0.03 in 18-49 which makes it the oldest leaning HBO show I can remember in a very long time. If it’s skewing that old Baranski seems the most likely.

https://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/hbo-tv-show-ratings/

 

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749674

kat_ebbs wrote:

Yeah my instincts were right – 0.03 in 18-49 which makes it the oldest leaning HBO show I can remember in a very long time. If it’s skewing that old Baranski seems the most likely. https://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/hbo-tv-show-ratings/

Has HBO ever had a show that has leant that old in audience?

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 4975 View Predictions]

#1204749702

wolfali wrote:

Has HBO ever had a show that has leant that old in audience?

Certainly not recently.

I just stuck that data in the link in to a spreadsheet (those shows go back to at least Boardwalk Empire) and they’re the oldest by a mile. That 15.43/1 for viewers over 50 (Perry Mason and the Undoing were next: 9.37 and 8.43 so quite a way off)

In my experience for whatever reason very old leaning shows are very prone towards (if anything) actor noms or winter awards, not series noms at the Emmys, I presume because the people voting in more technical categories for program aren’t naturally watching. That looks a LOT older than Downton Abbey. It would probably indicate an average viewer being 65-70.

Shows skewing really young or old or to a very specific audience (very very female, a lot older, very young, very male) makes this category really tricky because shows that have huge portions of viewers not watching need a LOT of agreement by the group that is on an unlimited ballot (see: Zendaya, Rege-Jean Page). Oddly, this probably benefits Spector, or maybe Baranski generationally.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 215 Posts: 32958 View Predictions]

#1204749750

Speaking of ratings:

‘Ozark’ Returns To Lead Netflix Top 10 TV List With 77 Million Hours Laundered

That would suggest 11 million people have already seen these seven episodes in the space of two days.

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")