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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 10)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204743114

    And apparently the MK trailer is the first Marvel D+ show trailer to hit a million likes?

    I have no ill will towards Moon Knight but I suspect this was orchestrated by fans because at one point it had a like rate that essentially impossible organically and then fell off a cliff.

    Comic, fantasy, and anime etc fans are becoming increasingly good at trying to game internet algorithms

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    wolfali
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    #1204743120

    Hmm.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1204743128

    I’m guessing Netflix submits the episode ‘Red Light, Green Light’ for Directing and then ‘Ggbanu’ for Writing for Squid Game.

    Also, isn’t Bateman directing one of the Ozark S4:Part II episodes? I think he and one of the Robin Wright episodes are probably safe bets.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC:
    The Great
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Severance
    The Batman

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    wolfali
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    #1204743133

    Also, isn’t Bateman directing one of the Ozark S4:Part II episodes?

    I don’t know about that but Laura Linney has directed one of the Part II episodes.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Manav
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    #1204743140

    I’m guessing Netflix submits the episode ‘Red Light, Green Light’ for Directing and then ‘Ggbanu’ for Writing for Squid Game.

    Considering that Writing-Directing wins for the same episode are prominent, I’d think they’ll submit ‘Ggbanu’ for both Writing and Directing.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    Couverture
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    #1204743146

    Whilst I do currently have The Morning Show in my series predictions, I’m not convinced that it’s safe for that nomination

    While I do agree with the overall sentiment that The Morning Show is no mortal lock as it’s a competitive year, I disagree with some of the points here.

    Sure it hit both WGA and SAG but that feels like more of an indictment of the weakness of the field and the show’s visibility rather than growing industry love.

    I don’t think they are mutually exclusive things though. Both can be true at the same time. WGA nominated a complete non-starter like Mindhunter while rejecting Game of Thrones, Stranger Things, Big Little Lies in the past. Surely they could have gone with something like Pose, an incumbent writing nominee, if they were completely indifferent to the The Morning Show. Or something else like The Good Fight or For All Mankind which some were predicting here.

    After all Steve Carell missed in a SAG field that was not that different in competitiveness from the one he competed in for the previous season.

    Now, come on. That is not a miss. He was way less prominent this season and was never expected to be in seeing how he wasn’t even in our top 10. Even people like Macfadyen and Costner were ahead of him. Them dropping Carell and nominating Witherspoon shows they are actually paying attention on the contrary. I’d also disagree that the level of competition was same as 2019 here. David Harbour wouldn’t get in this line-up. Even Brown missed here, which you could chalk up to This is Us not airing in fall, but then again, that didn’t affect him (CC, GG) or the show (CC, WGA, MUAHS) at other places.

    By the time we get to June the season will have aired almost an entire year ago and if both Yellowjackets and Loki turn up at DGA and PGA, it is going t be 5th at best in the series race. Throw in The White Lotus potentially moving to drama and then it falls down to 7th.

    TMS would not be behind Yellowjackets and Loki with a better haul though. Or are you assuming TMS will miss PGA/DGA while both of them get in (which seems unlikely)? The fields at SAG Limited Actor or WGA were weaker than anything TMS competed in so the benefitting-from-weak-competition argument could be used for The White Lotus as well. The latter has routinely underperformed at other places and we haven’t seen indisputable support for it yet so I’d hold off on making definite statements like that, which is true for the rest of the coming contenders too. Point is there isn’t a fixed hierarchy this far away from the Emmys, just a more broad view of things. TMS could still be ahead of most of these shows.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204743154

    I think everyone is in denial about Yellowstone. SAG nominated shows normally get in to the Emmys.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204743161

    I have no ill will towards Moon Knight but I suspect this was orchestrated by fans because at one point it had a like rate that essentially impossible organically and then fell off a cliff. Comic, fantasy, and anime etc fans are becoming increasingly good at trying to game internet algorithms

    Sorry, but I just don’t get this conclusion. Moon Knight is pretty darn niche as a Marvel hero and I doubt this would generate bigger fake responses than the shows for established MCU fan fave characters like in WandaVision and FAWS.

    Also, it was trending  #1 and stayed in the youtube top five for 3+(?) days after the trailer aired then as it started to drop so did the likes…makes perfect sense to me. The show just has a lot of genuine hype, I don’t see any real evidence of manipulation.

    If you have some evidence to that though, I’m open to being wrong! I just haven’t seen anything pointing to that.

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    nat1612
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    #1204743163

    Following on from the previous thread, Stranger Things isn’t happening. Why would they release active marketing saying Spring and release it so close to Ozark?

    Memorial Day is perfect – matches season in which it is set, but also unofficial start to Summer in the US, and airs right before eligibility closes so will be fresh, which is a lot better than missing another Emmy round and airing so far from when voting starts.

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    wolfali
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    #1204743165

    TMS could still be ahead of most of these shows.

    Well it’s not going to be ahead of Ozark, Squid Game or Succession which already pushes it down to (a distant) 4th and Better Call Saul and Killing Eve are both shows on their final seasons that have historically had broader support than The Morning Show (and got in over the buzzy and well received first season of TMS in series last time round) and are airing closer to voting so unless both those shows deliver car crash seasons I don’t see why they should be below it. That already pushes it down to a vulnerable position for a show like it and that’s without discussing each of the other shows I mentioned in my initial post that could end up having more broader support than it when it comes to a drama series nomination.

    WGA nominated a complete non-starter like Mindhunter while rejecting Game of Thrones, Stranger Things, Big Little Lies in the past.

    Mindhunter was on Netflix, was a show that actually had been nominated for an Emmy (unlike a fringe show like For All Mankind or The Good Fight) and had more recency than each of those shows. Sure they could have nominated Pose over TMS but it also aired way back in May (unlike TMS which concluded its run in November) and has historically not had as strong a performance with the guilds as it has at the Emmys (which hasn’t been the case for TMS).

    TMS would not be behind Yellowjackets and Loki with a better haul though. Or are you assuming TMS will miss PGA/DGA while both of them get in (which seems unlikely)?

    Well since this new Emmy voting system was introduced not a single first season show that has hit DGA has missed a series nomination so if both Yellowjackets and Loki do get in there I would assume they are stronger in the series race than TMS. Especially with the formers’ growing momentum and the support the latter will probably receive from the BTL branches (who single-handedly pushed Stranger Things ahead of TMS in series in 2020). I’d assume a similar thing with The White Lotus if it makes DGA.

    The fields at SAG Limited Actor or WGA were weaker than anything TMS competed in so the benefitting-from-weak-competition argument could be used for The White Lotus as well.

    And likewise the SAG limited actress field was more competitive than the drama actor field there and The White Lotus is actually win competitive for WGA. Sure maybe Aniston/Crudup could win at SAG if Strong/Snook and Jung-jae/Ho-Yeon falter but outside of acting it really doesn’t feel like The Morning Show is a factor to win anything to propel its momentum and with a season that doesn’t have as much hype as its first for it to be discussed throughout the season.

    I just want to clarify that I do have it in my series predictions and my query wasn’t with the notion of it getting a series nomination. It was more an expression of caution as we’ve seen Summer/Fall shows with receptions similar to it that have under-performed at the Emmys compared to the guilds because of not having enough broad support in a stacked field (The Undoing only got one above the line Emmy nomination in spite of SAG/PGA/DGA nominations, similar thing with Maniac – which also hit WGA).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    wolfali
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    #1204743169

    I think everyone is in denial about Yellowstone. SAG nominated shows normally get in to the Emmys.

    I think I’m waiting to see whether it gets in at DGA/PGA before I slot it into my series predictions. Aside from This is Us each of the drama ensemble nominees had another guild nomination going for them.

    I do agree it’s definitely a contender at this point. I would probably have slotted Kevin Costner in by now if I knew who to take out from my drama actor predictions.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204743219

    Also, it was trending  #1 and stayed in the youtube top five for 3+(?) days after the trailer aired then as it started to drop so did the likes…makes perfect sense to me. The show just has a lot of genuine hype, I don’t see any real evidence of manipulation.

    I didn’t explain myself.

    It would have gone #1 anyway.

    I just mean it’s probably a YouTuber or someone on TikTok actively saying “let’s get this video to #1”, because upvotes early were 20ish percent if I recal and now they’re 4-5%. They had a days notice on this trailer coming.

    I don’t have concrete proof and I could be wrong, but I look at this stuff for work and that steep a drop is a bit abnormal. “Orchestrated” is bad wording on my part “Actively encouraged” is better.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204743222

    I do agree it’s definitely a contender at this point. I would probably have slotted Kevin Costner in by now if I knew who to take out from my drama actor predictions.

    I mean Sheridan got in for WGA for 1883 which is (on paper) a prequel, so there’s that too.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204743228

    I do agree it’s definitely a contender at this point. I would probably have slotted Kevin Costner in by now if I knew who to take out from my drama actor predictions.

    I think it’s quite conceivable Yellowstone pulls a Bodyguard or The Boys, where people appreciate it on a technical level but aren’t necessarily going to reward a specific actor.

    Costner is good but not career-best or anything IMO. Just solid. Kelly Reilly is extremely polarising – people either think she’s great or awful

    I think if it effects anyone it’s Better Call Saul/Ozark, maybe This Is Us being linear.

     

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204743233

    Just watched 3 episodes of Yellowjackets so far and I’m doubting a Melanie Lynskey nomination. She’s isn’t particularly likeable nor baity. Of course that could change during the season but my intuition at the moment is that the year is too competitive for a character/performance like this to happen. Juliette Lewis is baitier, a bigger name, as lead as Lynskey and a previous Emmy nominee. If she’s submitted lead too I would predict her to happen before Melanie.

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