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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 15)

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    JV
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    #1204936918

    I don’t really buy Laura Linney, since people don’t vote for name recognition, narrative or nostalgia in the “new” system. And for all that’s worth, there’s really nothing to assure that voters will actually watch the final season of Ozark, a show that the acting branch has responded coldly in the past. Matthew Rhys is a nice precedent, though, so it’s not impossible and I understand those who will predict her.

    Repeat wins haven’t been really happening in the last years outside of the times when there’s no strong competition (basically Lead Actor – Comedy) so Zendaya is not well positioned, but it wouldn’t surprised me, because the category is wide open.

    Lynskey seems like the one that makes the most sense, the novelty with individual buzz. If she gets the nom, I think I’ll predict her.

    If Netflix moved HoYeon to Lead, she would win.

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    nkb325
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    #1204936945

    I don’t really buy Laura Linney, since people don’t vote for name recognition, narrative or nostalgia in the “new” system. And for all that’s worth, there’s really nothing to assure that voters will actually watch the final season of Ozark, a show that the acting branch has responded coldly in the past. Matthew Rhys is a nice precedent, though, so it’s not impossible and I understand those who will predict her.

    Repeat wins haven’t been really happening in the last years outside of the times when there’s no strong competition (basically Lead Actor – Comedy) so Zendaya is not well positioned, but it wouldn’t surprised me, because the category is wide open.

    Lynskey seems like the one that makes the most sense, the novelty with individual buzz. If she gets the nom, I think I’ll predict her.

    If Netflix moved HoYeon to Lead, she would win.

    Yea I think you’re right about that. Seems like an odd choice for them to not campaign her there, especially considering they have another supporting actress contender for that show.

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204936949

    Yea I think you’re right about that. Seems like an odd choice for them to not campaign her there, especially considering they have another supporting actress contender for that show.

    They’re probably banking on Laura Linney in Lead.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204936963

    Much as I’d hate it, I do think zendaya will win. The entire world seems to be kissing her arse under some spell. It’s emperor’s new clothes for me.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    Victor
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    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1204936997

    epiosde 5 was the Ozymandias episode of Euphoria

    FYC:

    "Succession" and "Severance" in all Drama categories;
    "Ted Lasso" and "The Great" in all Comedy categories;
    "Station Eleven" and "The White Lotus" in all Limited categories + Ethan Hawke for "Moon Knight".

    Kaley Cuoco ("The Flight Attendant"), Janelle James ("Abbott Elementary"), Mandy Moore ("This is Us"), Colin Firth ("The Staircase"), Christine Baranski ("The Good Fight"), Katja Herbers ("Evil").

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204937018

    Yea I think you’re right about that. Seems like an odd choice for them to not campaign her there, especially considering they have another supporting actress contender for that show.

    Honestly, if it were me, I’d move Garner to lead, where she’d still get nominated, if not win, despite Linney, which would get her out of HoYeon’s way, who we already know can beat Snook.

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    Victor
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    #1204937057

    The way she will be Headey’d saddens me

    FYC:

    "Succession" and "Severance" in all Drama categories;
    "Ted Lasso" and "The Great" in all Comedy categories;
    "Station Eleven" and "The White Lotus" in all Limited categories + Ethan Hawke for "Moon Knight".

    Kaley Cuoco ("The Flight Attendant"), Janelle James ("Abbott Elementary"), Mandy Moore ("This is Us"), Colin Firth ("The Staircase"), Christine Baranski ("The Good Fight"), Katja Herbers ("Evil").

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    Go Yeoh!
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    #1204937071

    What if Sarah Snook actually wins her category?

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    agorretta
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    #1204937075

    Granted I haven’t seen the second part that just came out today, but I really don’t get the idea that Garner should be considered Lead for season 4. She still felt Supporting to me compared to Bateman and Linney, and certainly not as egregious as others (like Einbinder, probably the most annoying category fraud to me). And imo it would be WAY more dumb for Netflix to try to push 2 Lead Actresses for Ozark, especially when Garner has already won for this role twice(!) in Supporting. And the Emmy is pretty much between Garner and HoYeon Jung anyway, so what does Netflix care, they still win.

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    Victor
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    #1204937122

    I also felt Garner was pretty much still a supporting player, even with the amount of time she got this season (well, Part 1), it’s not fraud IMO. (granted, i didn’t seen Part 2 yet, so that might change)

    What if Sarah Snook actually wins her category?

    Can you imagine the joy? But she already lost at SAG being in the Ensemble winner, it would be okay if she hasn’t lost to a direct competition, but oh well, what can we do.

    FYC:

    "Succession" and "Severance" in all Drama categories;
    "Ted Lasso" and "The Great" in all Comedy categories;
    "Station Eleven" and "The White Lotus" in all Limited categories + Ethan Hawke for "Moon Knight".

    Kaley Cuoco ("The Flight Attendant"), Janelle James ("Abbott Elementary"), Mandy Moore ("This is Us"), Colin Firth ("The Staircase"), Christine Baranski ("The Good Fight"), Katja Herbers ("Evil").

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    Manav
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    #1204937138

    To me, Snook’s AACTA defeat despite her being an Australian and the show winning Drama Series is also very telling.

     

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    Víctor Pérez
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    #1204937152

    What a stunning performance by Julia Garner in episode 8 of Ozark S4. I totally see her winning another Emmy.

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    Heptapod
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204937166

    I don’t really buy Laura Linney, since people don’t vote for name recognition, narrative or nostalgia in the “new” system. And for all that’s worth, there’s really nothing to assure that voters will actually watch the final season of Ozark, a show that the acting branch has responded coldly in the past. Matthew Rhys is a nice precedent, though, so it’s not impossible and I understand those who will predict her.

    All four of these winners had multiple other people in their category who a lot of people would agree would have been “better winners” but had a combination of your aforementioned factors that pushed them to a win.

    Olivia Colman (name recognition/narrative)
    Evan Peters (narrative/nostalgia)
    Eugene Levy (all three)
    Uzo Aduba (name recognition)

    Sure, it doesn’t happen as commonly, but it does happen. And I find Linney quite similar to Uzo Aduba and Regina King, actresses who the Academy simply loves and are probably top two in the category as soon as they’re nominated.

    And to say the acting branch has responded coldly to Ozark feels like a bit of an exaggeration. SAG has given it ten nominations and two wins (the first over the incumbent winner Brown in the Ensemble winner, and the second over the actual Emmy winner in the Ensemble winner). Pelphrey was definitely a big snub, but McTeer was always a fringe contender and in hindsight, her addition would have been a pretty big overperformance.

    FYC: Pamela Adlon (Better Things) Rose Byrne (Physical) Danielle Deadwyler (Station Eleven) Elle Fanning (The Great) Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) Hamish Linklater (Midnight Mass) Margaret Qualley (Maid) Renee Rapp (The Sex Lives of College Girls) Sophie Thatcher (Yellowjackets) Heléne Yorke (The Other Two)

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    keybored
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    Nov 15th, 2019
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    #1204937186

    Zendaya is second. However, since the Emmys seem averse to repeat winners in this category now, I don’t think she’ll be the one to pick up a consecutive trophy. The reception to Euphoria s2 was too negative, and the “oh so Zendaya’s a STAR” shine from s1 has lost its luster a bit now that her career has fully progressed beyond Disney. To be honest, I don’t see Lysnkey winning for Yellowjackets. The show is a bit too underseen, her performance doesn’t feel quite bombastic enough (and she’s not an Olivia Colman type who can overcome that), and though the Critics Choice win is significant, she does feel more like a critics thing than anything else. Aniston, Comer, and Oh (and anyone else nominated) will be filler. Lower is in an interesting position where she’s got the passion to do pretty well if she manages to get nominated, but I don’t think her hype is on the Zendaya/Comer level just yet where she can swoop in as a total shocker. Honestly, at this point I’ll be shocked if it’s anyone but Linney. She’s won at some point for ALL of her Emmy-nominated roles so far, it’s her last season, the show has never been more acclaimed, she’ll be the freshest in voters’ minds in the category, many voters will probably remember that they were disappointed she didn’t win last time, and she’s REALLY got the performance to back it up. It’s a long few months until the ceremony, but everything seems to be totally falling into place for her.

    Wendy is almost as universally hated a character as shiv is  and that seems to be a proven obstacle against a win

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    FilmRoyalty
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    Oct 5th, 2011
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    #1204937189

    Laura Linney after the court hearing. Omg!!!

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