Home Forums Television Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 16)

Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 16)

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    probablyROB
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    #1204954498

    I am a broken record about this but I am confident Severance is going to outperform everyone’s most cynical expectations at the Emmys. Definitely better than Succession season one. Season one of Succession took a really long time to catch for a lot of people who abandoned it early on because people were sick of stories about overprivileged, shitty white people and only really got around to finishing it once the buzz about the final episodes got too loud to ignore. And had it not been on HBO that may have taken even longer or even not at all. It had a lot to do with it under performing in season one. It had a metacritic score of 70 for season one.

    Severance and Succession simply aren’t comparable at all despite being the frontrunners for Drama this year. Industry people were buzzing from the start about how unique and transcendent it was after the very first episodes. It’s going to be like a close to 20 nomination show the more I think about it.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204954516

    20 nominations is ridiculous. Can we please stop comparing these two incredible shows? Succession is near perfect and has been since season 1 and Severance is excellent and may do slightly better than Succession season 1 for nominations mostly in acting. Who knows. More critiques of late capitalism I say.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204954526

    I am a broken record about this but I am confident Severance is going to outperform everyone’s most cynical expectations at the Emmys.

    No one on this board is “cynical”, they’re tempering their expectations to previous first seasons. They expect it to do well. It’s a first season show in a weird year with a lot of different prospects.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204954544

    Feinberg first predictions

    https://t.co/4AZlt2tA5m

    He has Mandy Moore in 3rd even though he has This Is Us snubbed in Series. He never predicted her to get in last year.

    Of course, he has flaws and has made wrong predictions in the past. But this does mean her buzz is real and it’s not just something goldderby is fabricating like some have implied here.

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    Mimikadd1
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    #1204954547

    Feinberg has 3 euphoria actresses in supporting categorie. I…

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    Timmyy
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    #1204954561

    Where to even begin with Feinberg’s disastrous predictions? Lmao.

    — Three Euphoria women in supporting is never happening. Scott has always cummed on Sam Levinson though, so no surprise there. Garner in third, ROFL. Is he nuts?

    — Wtf is Tokyo Story? I’m sure he means Tokyo Vice. 🤦🏽

    — Why do comedy actor and actress have eight frontrunners?

    — Isabel May for “1883”??????

    — I get the First Lady is a flop, but not mentioning it at all is dumb.

    Embarrassing all around.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204954566

    Feinberg has 3 euphoria actresses in supporting categorie. I…

    To be entirely objective about it, there is no statistical precedent for them nominating five actresses in their 20s in a category.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204954587

    No one on this board is “cynical”, they’re tempering their expectations to previous first seasons. They expect it to do well. It’s a first season show in a weird year with a lot of different prospects.

    I don’t believe comparing season one of Severance and season one of Succession is tempering. It’s very cynical to me. There’s absolutely no reason the two should be compared at all in terms of nomination output or their first seasons other than they have both had first seasons. Which is a point I think that flew over String Cheese Theory’s head. I was pointing out how ridiculous it was to compare the two and they seemed to think I was adding to it.

    And while I am at it, I don’t think Severance will get 20 nominations per say but if they walked away with 16-18 of them come July I wouldn’t be shocked. It will depend on how many writing and directing episodes they submit but they could, in theory, get two of each and it would be completely deserved. They have 4-6 actors who would be deserving of nominations. That’s 11 ATL nominations including series if we decide to max that out (which I don’t think will happen but is totally feasible and would be deserving based on merit).

    Then you get into all the BTL nominations they are almost certain to receive and inching towards 20 isn’t as ridiculous as it sounds in face value alone.

    I could be wrong and overestimating how Emmy voters will react to it. Anecdotally my experience is the industry is very aware of it. Maybe that is motivating my bullishness about it. I can’t quantify something like that.

    There’s a universe where Arquette is the only ATL nominee. That isn’t a universe I care to live in.

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    TV_Lover
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    #1204954625

    To be entirely objective about it, there is no statistical precedent for them nominating five actresses in their 20s in a category.

    I mean not even the MTV Movie awards nominated more than Zendaya and Sidney Sweeney… although maybe MTV swings older than I’m imagining. Unless you count the “Best Kiss” nominations…

    I’m sure these are well thought through, but in general, what a boring result it would be to have 8 actors nominated from Succession, 4 from Euphoria, etc. And then none for Stranger Things, Severence, TMS, the Gilded Age. At least the Comedy predications are more spread out.

    And I would be really surprised if the Morning Show got zero noms! I mean he doesn’t even have Billy Crudup in there, and he won last time! And they had four SAG noms, just behind Succession.

    A weird list, for sure. Although the long lists of “major threats” definitely gives him an out. Maybe it’s just too up in the air.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204954628

    I could be wrong and overestimating how Emmy voters will react to it. Anecdotally my experience is the industry is very aware of it. Maybe that is motivating my bullishness about it. I can’t quantify something like that.

    Fair. You have your rationale!  The reason I suggest tempering it isn’t because of antagonism or cynicism against Severance, it’s because this field is quite odd. It’s nothing against Severance.

    It’s not entirely clear if they’ll lean towards old favourites, really go hard on Succession/Squid Game to the extent of blocking contenders, or say screw you to old shows and really lean in to new ones. The over-busy field may well just result in them going back to older contenders, or newer options.

    I do agree the industry are watching Severance, but I don’t think there’s any evidence it’s anywhere near as widespread as, say, Squid Game.

     

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204954630

    Personally, I meant to say that Severance will only get Series, Directing and Writing in the above the line categories, like Succession did for the first season. I know in the tech department Severance is superior and could get more nods that Succession during it’s first season, which I’m predicting btw, IMO Severance will get something between 10-15 nods

    Likely
    Series
    Directing
    Writing
    Casting
    Picture Editing
    Production Design
    Cinematography
    Score
    Main Title Design
    Main Title Theme Music

    Could Happen
    Supporting Actor
    Supporting Actress
    Sound Editing
    Sound Mixing

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    Manav
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    #1204954644

    I think we’re neglecting the fact that a lot of people have major issues with Severance’s pacing which might have led them to stop the show midway. That is bound to hurt in a big way at some place when it’s competing with juggernauts such as Succession, Ozark and Squid Game which might have multiple submissions in directing, writing and acting.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204954664

    Could Happen Supporting Actor Supporting Actress Sound Editing Sound Mixing

    I agree on it being very strong BTL.

    The reason I’m not bullish on acting nominations is because the acting style can, at times, be quite exacting and (necessarily) cold, and I’m not confident that’s to everyone’s taste.

    In particular, I don’t tend to think they go there with actresses very often – I’m trying to think of performances that were similar styles that got in? They do happen but they normally feature a really memorable breakthrough emotionally to mix them up.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204954700

    I do agree the industry are watching Severance, but I don’t think there’s any evidence it’s anywhere near as widespread as, say, Squid Game.

    Right. I’m not saying the show is as popular as a Netflix show. Ozark dwarfs Severance in google Trends. But they have a much wider audience than Apple and we know the industry is watching Apple considering two of the last three big winners across film and TV has been an Apple movie and an Apple show. The Morning Show even got nominated for series and while I like the show it really is not that good outside of Crudup’s performance, which also won two years ago.

    Also, I didn’t mean to say anyone in particular was being cynical towards the show just that the rationale behind a lot of the arguments against Severance when they do happen seem cynical because the logic doesn’t stand up to scrutiny a lot of the time.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204954704

    In particular, I don’t tend to think they go there with actresses very often – I’m trying to think of performances that were similar styles that got in? They do happen but they normally feature a really memorable breakthrough emotionally to mix them up.

    January Jones, Keri Russell, Christina Hendricks off the top of my head… there are performances that have been nominated that were more subdued or stoic. And Britt Lower’s character is a lot more interesting and has showier material than January Jones ever did.

    And I keep saying that the pacing issue isn’t as wide spread as people keep trying to make it out to be. The pacing is fine. Plenty of shows throughout history have had slower pacing with fewer pay offs early on than Severance. That argument is superficial at best.

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