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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 16)

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    probablyROB
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    #1204958707

    Can I get a vibe check from everyone on why they think Netflix are not just holding Stranger Things over to Summer like they intended, or splitting it 5-4?

    Sounds to me like they are just trying to outsmart themselves. When companies start to make bad decisions they tend to snowball like this. I can’t imagine there being a logical reason for them doing so. If they wanted to push the finale as a movie maybe but with the other episode it just seems bizarre.

    I don’t watch the show so I have no idea maybe it works for them. But the decision would seem weird for anyone.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204958712

    I can’t find the latest data but this is available:

    From 2015 to 2019, 82% of the nominees in 19 prime-time Emmy categories were white, including more than three-fourths of the acting nominees and fully 90% of the writing and directing nominees.Black people accounted for 14% of nominees overall. Asian nominees were 2% of the total, Latinos 1%, and all others a combined 1%.

    But these numbers have improved drastically in 2020 and 2021. Diversity is increasing in the nominations atleast.

    This is good but I meant more like gender and age of voters.

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    Manav
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    #1204958715

    This is good but I meant more like gender and age of voters.

    Recent updates for that are not available unfortunately. I searched for it a lot while making the Unlimited Ballot thread

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204958731

    hmm, severance has 10x the votes of pachinko on imdb.

    i wonder if the latter can at least pull a nom for the Oscar Winning Legend in supporting actress.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204958736

    I appreciate the insight. Sounds like the nomination process didn’t change much but for series? Curious how this impact changes how acting nominations happen now. Is it an unlimited ballot in the first round now too? I wasn’t clear on that.

    It is.

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    EviAdd711
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    #1204958753

    GD Emmy “expert” Chris Rosen was a big Severance fan and then suddenly took it out of his predictions and said he was “bearish” about their Emmy chances. Anyone know why the change? Do you agree?

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    probablyROB
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    #1204958755

    Only they know. If they don’t back it up with data or reasoning then they aren’t being a very good journalist, though.

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    nat1612
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    #1204958768

    Can I get a vibe check from everyone on why they think Netflix are not just holding Stranger Things over to Summer like they intended, or splitting it 5-4?

    I assume bc a summer release last time didn’t do them any favours being released so far from the next Emmy round. Plus I assume as they’ve put episode 7 forward for a lot of the categories they must feel like that’s their strongest one.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204958781

    Recent updates for that are not available unfortunately. I searched for it a lot while making the Unlimited Ballot thread

    I think you can really only make assumptions on their previous choices. I’ve tried to look at heaps of stuff for this (I do similar stuff for work to try and work out target or interested audiences) and my best bet on data and instincts is that the median voter is probably in their 40s and there’s relatively good gender diversity in up until the boomers and top end of Gen X, who probably skew more male.

    I think you can probably do a thought exercise in looking at most shows and go “would a 46 year old couple enjoy this?” and most of their choices make sense whilst if you change that to 56 they don’t.

    Certainly there are choices outside of that which happen but they tend to be when there’s not a lot of other options for those voters. I think for instance if you look at the 2023 slate you could probably reasonably determine there is too much (probably) male-skew genre programming and female skew shows will do quite well.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204958783

    GD Emmy “expert” Chris Rosen was a big Severance fan and then suddenly took it out of his predictions and said he was “bearish” about their Emmy chances. Anyone know why the change? Do you agree?

    Eh, I watched the slugfest with Joyce, and I don’t think it was anything too deep, and Chris tends to change his preferences late I think, so I wouldn’t read much in to it. I think they’re mostly just not sure how all-in they’ll go on new programs

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204958790

    I have a lot of trouble believing Yellowstone is that going to be popular with Emmy voters. I know it’s popular but so was NCIS and the episodes of Yellowstone I watched felt like they were geared towards similar audiences(not that the quality was comparable).

    To answer your question: there are older skewing shows with similar demographics (if we use IMDB) to Yellowstone that have gotten in actors, but not program (In Treatment and Perry Mason are good examples) however, we haven’t really had such an older leaning hit under this system so it’s hard to determine.

     

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    Onion
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    #1204958858

    Can I get a vibe check from everyone on why they think Netflix are not just holding Stranger Things over to Summer like they intended, or splitting it 5-4?

    I have a theory that it’s not only a strategy for awards. I think something very big will happen in episode 8. The season is longer than previous ones, so this pretty much guarantees that the average viewer would probably be spoiled on whatever happens and this is their way to try to avoid it.

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    JV
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    #1204958891

    GD Emmy “expert” Chris Rosen was a big Severance fan and then suddenly took it out of his predictions and said he was “bearish” about their Emmy chances. Anyone know why the change? Do you agree?

    He’s awful. The same guy who started predicting No Way Home for Best Picture out of nowhere

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    probablyROB
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    #1204958908

    To answer your question: there are older skewing shows with similar demographics (if we use IMDB) to Yellowstone that have gotten in actors, but not program (In Treatment and Perry Mason are good examples) however, we haven’t really had such an older leaning hit under this system so it’s hard to determine.

    I have no good proof of this but I get the impression the political leanings of Yellowstone and those other shows are quite different. The only “proof” I can find is by doing Art & Entertainment Google Trends search for Yellowstone specific to when it aired (when data spikes considerably each week). And I don’t think there is a single blue state in the top 25 and if it is its a swing state like Ohio. California was 45, New York was 50, and DC was 51.

    Then I did a search for Perry Mason during the period it aired in 2020(oddly enough airing at the same time as a different season of Yellowstone and Yellowstone was still considerably more popular than it) and while it was nowhere near as popular as you mentioned the top regions were all blue states with DC being #1.

    I just don’t think there’s going to be enough Emmy voters backing Yellowstone. If there were Mark Harmon likely would have been nominated a bunch during the NCIS run.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204958976

    I have no good proof of this but I get the impression the political leanings of Yellowstone and those other shows are quite different. The only “proof” I can find is by doing Art & Entertainment Google Trends search for Yellowstone specific to when it aired (when data spikes considerably each week). And I don’t think there is a single blue state in the top 25 and if it is its a swing state like Ohio. California was 45, New York was 50, and DC was 51.

    You are right, there is data backing it up in various reports. But I also think a lot of that is just kind of erring older.

    I agree with you on that maybe making it not happen. Whether that 45-51 is enough for an extremely popular show I’m not sure (Wall Street Journal said they had a lot of data it was moving in to coastal areas from ratings, but it’s certainly still dominant elsewhere otherwise).

    I will probably predict it very lightly ATL (ie I’m not sold on the show, but I can see Costner or Reilly)

    I am mostly predicting it based on SAG, but I have mused that they may be both a bit older and a wee bit more geographically diverse.

    I tend to think they are a bit more erring towards the midline than people think? The show that gives me pause is Ozark which I don’t necessarily think is a “red state” show but it’s not particularly blue either. (My instinct is actually if you push Ozark out, maybe Yellowstone succeeds it). It feels like the show people closest to the middle are drawn to?

     

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