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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 16)

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    EviAdd711
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    #1204959524

     Adam Scott (Severance) and Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) are the Drama contenders part of LA Times Envelope Drama Roundtable (coming June 10th)  

    YES!! Yes, yes, yes!!! I’m truly shocked that Adam isn’t a bigger contender (yet) for Drama Actor given his amazing performance in Severance. Not that it really matters in Hollywood, but he’s also truly just a great, down to earth person (I’m close to a source that would know). Would love to see him at least get a nom and a full-push campaign from Apple!

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    Heptapod
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    #1204959840

    Can I get a vibe check from everyone on why they think Netflix are not just holding Stranger Things over to Summer like they intended, or splitting it 5-4?

    Seasons or partial seasons need to be at least 6 episodes to contend for Series and main acting categories. Splitting it 5-4 would shoot themselves in the foot because it wouldn’t be eligible for either Emmy ceremony.

    FYC: Pamela Adlon (Better Things) Rose Byrne (Physical) Danielle Deadwyler (Station Eleven) Elle Fanning (The Great) Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) Hamish Linklater (Midnight Mass) Margaret Qualley (Maid) Renee Rapp (The Sex Lives of College Girls) Sophie Thatcher (Yellowjackets) Heléne Yorke (The Other Two)

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    Clement
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    #1204959849

    Jason Bateman probably does not stand a chance but he is very much in the race. Remember just last year Olivia Coleman won for a subdued performance that was overshadowed by her costars – Anderson and co lead Emma. What really stands against Jason is that he already has an emmy for Ozark, so I doubt anyone really feels compelled to reward him.

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    Couverture
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    #1204959923

    Seasons or partial seasons need to be at least 6 episodes to contend for Series and main acting categories. Splitting it 5-4 would shoot themselves in the foot because it wouldn’t be eligible for either Emmy ceremony.

    You only need 3 episodes to contend as a series for established shows.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204960072

    You only need 3 episodes to contend as a series for established shows.

    The choice to not hold over either part 2 of Ozark or  Stranger Things (Bridgerton I get, because they can probably sneak S3 through before the 2023 cutoff) leaves them quite precarious acting race wise.  Additionally I think Lupin ended up going International, so that’s not an option.

    If no one gets an ATL nom this year for Bridgerton (which is more likely than not) they’re going to end up with zero returning nominees (and expect people warm to the new The Crown cast)

    Almost everything new they appear to have before the end of the year is leaning in to genre, so they’d definitely need something to breakout.

    I guess the non-cynical theory is they’re confident something will? I know they’re in a slump in a lot of ways but they’re also only eight months out from their awards team clean-sweeping drama series.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204960125

    Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

    1. Julia Garner, Ozark
    2. Jung Ho-yeon, Squid Game
    3. Sarah Snook, Succession – Something would have to go horribly wrong for any of these contenders to miss.

    4. J. Smith-Cameron, Succession – I primarily have her in because the field is so wide open and Succession is even more popular this go round so she can coattail to her show’s wings although I do think if she fails to get in this year it would be a sign that this performance simply doesn’t command enough passion for people to check it off even on an unlimited ballot (which we have seen multiple cases of under this voting system in recent years with previously nominated veterans like Jane Lynch, Joseph Fiennes (season 4) and Bill Camp missing in supporting categories for shows that either otherwise performed well in acting nominations or in Camp’s case won series).

    5. Patricia Arquette, Severance – This woman is an awards titan and Severance has arguably become the must watch drama series of the Spring. She’s the type of contender who I’d be shocked if the show receives recognition from the actors branch and she’s left out with her advantageous ballot placement, industry name recognition and narrative prominence.

    6. Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets – I’ve been (and somewhat still am) ebbing on the side of caution with Yellowjackets because it strikes as the type of show that seems to have more than consensus in its type of support but with the state of this field, I think as a passion pick Ricci stands to benefit the most. Her characterisation may not be attracting as much critical passion as Lynskey but as time has progressed she’s been attracting enough individual chatter to stand out from the rest of the Yellowjackets pack and I think her performance having a strikingly different acting style compared to the rest of the ensemble gives her an edge? There’s a certain type of character acting in Ricci’s work here that I don’t think is really in the DNA of the work of the other three adult “leads”. Although not something I’m really considering predicting at the moment it wouldn’t surprise me if Ricci ended up being the above the line rep for Yellowjackets with the disparity in competition in the series/lead and supporting categories and her being a fairly established name (which I would argue rectifies the recent trend of only performers who are previous winners being the only ones to get in as sole supporting nominees).

    7. Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things – I think this is a case where a change of circumstances can make a fundamental difference to a performer’s chances of a nomination. When Brown was dropped last time round Stranger Things not only aired all the way back at the start of the eligibility period in the Summer but it was also competing against shows that were bigger actors branch favourites (The Handmaid’s Tale, The Crown, Big Little Lies) all of which are ineligible this year. In the time since Stranger Things was last on air Brown has also grown her industry credentials as a producer. That being said her being dropped across the board (she missed in her category at SAG which is something David Harbour didn’t) could also just mean that the novelty behind her performance has faded as the show has gone on.

    8. Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve – Honestly even if Killing Eve gets shut out completely I don’t think she’s really any lower than 10th here. In a year as scattered as this the branch are either going to gravitate towards the contenders it is familiar with or just move on to other shows and after what’s happened in these past few years with shows like The Handmaid’s Tale over-performing last year and Westworld still being able to get performers as venerated as Shaw nominated for a poorly received third season, I’m not really filled with confidence that voters will gravitate towards the latter option. It wouldn’t surprise me if some voters check off Shaw without even having seen this season yet.

    9. Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria – She’s definitely not lacking in buzz and between this and The White Lotus she has a lot of visibility. I guess the only reason I’m hesitant is because it feels hard to characterise the actors branch’s relationship with Euphoria? We of course don’t have much data with the show only being on its second season but part of me just questions whether the actors branch cares about any performer on this show other than Zendaya. I do think Colman Domingo can slip into the guest acting race because he seems to be a highly regarded character actor and maybe Sweeney’s recent filmography makes her stand out from the rest of the “younger” performers on her show but I’m still unsure. Whilst I don’t have Euphoria in my drama series lineup I do understand the justification behind it with Emily in Paris and Cobra Kai‘s series nominations last year but at the same time even as popular skewing the series categories have been in recent years, the actors branch hasn’t really correlated as much with that in these supporting categories. They didn’t nominate Ashley Park when they nominated Emily in Paris in series even though comedy supporting actress was a wasteland last year and her performance was one of the only things people liked about her show (and she received a CC nomination and had visibility from another comedy contender). When The Mandalorian and Stranger Things were nominated in series two years ago the actors didn’t go crazy for the former (only giving a name-check nod to Giancarlo Esposito) and shut out the latter in favour of also ran veterans. On paper everything makes sense for a Sweeney nomination but something still makes me hesitant to put her firmly in my lineup.

    10. Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age – She’s a beloved veteran in a period drama that was a commercial hit for HBO and will be at the top of the ballot for half of these voters alphabetically. Whilst she’s never made it in for The Good Fight (which until recently was a CBS All Access show) she’s made it in multiple times in guest and supporting categories for widely seen shows that weren’t series competitive (The Good Wife, The Big Bang Theory) so the precedence is there. Perhaps it’s just me but it also kind of feels like she’s been more in the public eye since this show started airing? Her and Carrie Coon were the face of its marketing, Baranski herself has been doing a lot of press and she became a viral meme after a confrontation with Elon Musk at the Met Gala this year (which other actors from The Gilded Age attended and was also apparently the first time she ever has too). Of course audience popularity doesn’t necessarily translate to industry recognition but if voters don’t take to her show overall but still find it difficult to fill out their ballots, I wouldn’t be surprised if she benefitted from a lack of consensus.

    11. Julianna Margulies, The Morning Show – A renowned multi Emmy winning veteran in a show that has already been embraced by actors in the past. We’ve seen cases of voters checking off glorified guest performances from performers they’re familiar with in shows they’re familiar with in the past under this system and weak field or not, The Morning Show‘s winter awards haul has shown how it can slip into fields lacking in contenders with lots of consensus in the past. At the same time (whilst not the most direct or flawless comparison) The Morning Show is starting to remind me a lot of The Undoing in that it receives a lukewarm reception from its audience base which leads us to think it will under-perform at the winter awards but then it over-performs due to visibility, thus leading us to fall into a “don’t underestimate it twice mentality” in our Emmy predictions but it under-performs. Regardless of its winter awards haul it’s still a show that aired back in the Autumn, is no longer its streaming service’s priority in this field and just like a show like Killing Eve aired with bad buzz. I think for Margulies to get in the show will have to perform somewhat like it did with the actors branch last time round (which is of course still possible even if the factors that led to its over-performance are not really present in this field). I do think she can get in without the show getting Witherspoon in or getting into drama series though.

    12. Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age – Another veteran character actor and another performer who has double visibility in this field thanks to the Sex and the City reboot. That being said I do question whether she’s as strong a name-check as some of the other veterans in this field after she missed for Ratched last year (which she received a Globe nod for, something that has tended to be rare when it comes to drama supporting performances). That being said of course The Gilded Age is a much better received series than Ratched was.

    13. Yuh-jung Youn, Pachinko – This show more or less came and went in buzz but there’s something about it that I just can’t help think feels like something the industry would be paying attention to more than anyone else. Perhaps it’s because of its strong pedigree behind the camera, its topical subject matter, the added eyeballs on its streaming service or just because Youn’s name has been so prominently on most of Hollywood’s lips for the past two years as a result of her Oscar win. I’ll be interested to gauge how well it does at TCA and see if it performs as well something like Pose or more like It’s a Sin with the American television critics.

    14. Kim Joo-Ryoung, Squid Game – In an ideal world she’d be top 5 in this race but in spite of the overall visibility of her show, I just question if Squid Game is strong enough to be able to get a performer who hasn’t had a big Hollywood breakout moment like her co-stars have had and isn’t the most narratively prominent actor on the show in. When The Crown won drama series it still couldn’t get a performer like Erin Doherty who garnered industry and media attention nominated. Last year The Queen’s Gambit couldn’t get in Marielle Heller or Bill Camp. Stranger Things couldn’t get Winona Ryder in for season 1, Succession couldn’t get Alan Ruck in for season 2, The Flight Attendant couldn’t get multiple supporting nods even though the comedy field was the definition of barren last year… every show has its limits.

    15. Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul – In all honesty the only way I can see her getting in is if the show bounces back this year (or to put it bluntly, voters actually catch up with it) which isn’t something I’m ruling (although I’m not necessarily predicting either) considering it seemed to have a big enough catch up on Netflix in the run up to this season airing to topple Bridgerton on the Nielsen charts. Part of the question I’m asking myself with Seehorn is if she couldn’t get in even when her show over-performed in a weak field three years ago over people like Fiona Shaw and Sophie Turner, why would she get in now? Even in last year’s weaker drama field, would she have even been nominated over people like Fennell, Brewer and Ellis?

    16. Glenn Close, Tehran – Apple are FYC-ing the hell out of her and there has been an interesting amount of media attention around this being her first major television role since Damages ended. We’ve talked about people like Baranski and Margulies getting in due to their industry status and strong Emmy records but it’s easy to forget with how big a resurgence she’s had in film since The Wife that Close has 3 Emmy wins and a grand total of 14 nominations so she could be just as compelling a name-check for those same group of voters. That being said, does anyone even have time at this point to watch this show?

    17. Sadie Sink, Stranger Things – Maybe? She does seem to have a greater profile this year (unlike some of her other cast members Stranger Things isn’t the only thing many people would associate her with anymore) and whilst I’m still ambivalent as to whether there is really much appeal in the industry behind the performances on Stranger Things outside of Brown’s and Harbour’s, I do wonder if a release date closer to Emmy voting and it arguably being the closest thing to an “alternative” to another younger skewing show like Euphoria might be something that plays into its favour. Last year there was a risk that the show could end up falling out of the awards conversation altogether as voters moved on to other things and the show’s prestigious glow dampened but I do wonder if a break might help it bounce back as a whole (in nominations of course, unless this season somehow ends up being one of the best things ever the show probably isn’t going to be win competitive for anything above the line if it couldn’t win anything at its peak in its first two seasons). Whilst I’m not the most rabid fan of Stranger Things, personally I wouldn’t actually mind someone like Sink or Hawke managing to slip in because of the field this year. A lot of the female supporting cast members on the show are quite underrated.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204960161

    . Part of the question I’m asking myself with Seehorn is if she couldn’t get in even when her show over-performed in a weak field three years ago over people like Fiona Shaw and Sophie Turner, why would she get in now? Even in last year’s weaker drama field, would she have even been nominated over people like Fennell, Brewer and Ellis?

    This is the reason I just can’t bring myself to predict her (but I will 100% cheer on her happening if she can). She had a fantastic season that year.

    I know we have our biases here on these boards (clearly the boards like Headey more than the voters)  but if Manav’s ballot experiment was even close to correct, Turner was quite weak, and that was in the days of the 2% rule so she could have slipped in and they could have gone to 7 or 8.

    I can buy her being behind the other five.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204960163

    6. Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

    I think it’s notable a lot of people are saying she’s one of the more memorable characters of the year?

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    Manav
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    #1204960174

    I know we have our biases here on these boards (clearly the boards like Headey more than the voters) but if Manav’s ballot experiment was even close to correct, Turner was quite weak, and that was in the days of the 2% rule so she could have slipped in and they could have gone to 7 or 8.

    Well, my experiment of Drama was on a restricted ballot. Turner would be much stronger on an unlimited one (like the Emmys where she did get nominated) where there is no limit to check off the GoT actors.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    wolfali
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    #1204960213

    I think it’s notable a lot of people are saying she’s one of the more memorable characters of the year?

    I agree. And it’s a really showy role that whilst firmly supporting has as much narrative prominence as ay of the other more “leading” cast members on her show.

    In a normal year I’d be in doubt as to whether passion can carry a performer to a nomination (because the unlimited ballot voting system is so visibility oriented) but in a field in as much flux as this one, I think she’s a performer who stands to benefit.

    This is the reason I just can’t bring myself to predict her (but I will 100% cheer on her happening if she can). She had a fantastic season that year. I know we have our biases here on these boards (clearly the boards like Headey more than the voters) but if Manav’s ballot experiment was even close to correct, Turner was quite weak, and that was in the days of the 2% rule so she could have slipped in and they could have gone to 7 or 8. I can buy her being behind the other five.

    Or even two years ago when she received a TCA nomination (something that’s a rarity for supporting performances) and one of the most “buzzed” about clips of that television season. Seehorn gives one of my best performances on television I’ve ever seen on this show but unless there is a shift in sentiment towards the show within the actors branch this year, it’s just hard to see her breaking through when she already hasn’t for just as (if not more) buzzed about seasons of work. It surprises me that she’s 5th in the Gold Derby odds whilst Jonathan Banks (who has been nominated 4 times for Saul) is in 7th/8th.

    I am interested to see how Better Call Saul performs overall this year though. I haven’t been so caught up in the conversation around it (I haven’t started season 6 yet) but out of all the returning “legacy” drama series it seems to be the one that has returned with the most enthusiastic reception and its online metrics seem to reinforce that.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204960215

    Well, my experiment of Drama was on a restricted ballot. Turner would be much stronger on an unlimited one (like the Emmys where she did get nominated) where there is no limit to check off the GoT actors.

    Possibly – but by much?  Seehorn is the #1 billed, no #1 priority actress for her show. Turner and Christie were…….not.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204960291

    Possibly – but by much? Seehorn is the #1 billed, no #1 priority actress for her show. Turner and Christie were…….not.

    It’s also worth mentioning that (unlike say Christie) not many people really cared about Turner’s work in the final season. She didn’t get in anywhere else (not even the Gold Derby awards that year even though we nominated Christie, Headey and Williams and gave GoT drama series) and I remember when I did a series of polls on the drama categories on here back then (most of which have probably been deleted by now due to the site’s wipe of threads pre May 2020) and she received very few votes in the supporting actress poll whilst things were more evenly split between Christie, Garner, Headey, Shaw and Williams. Now you could say the sheer profile of GoT helped catapult her to a nomination (and it probably did) but the actors branch had shown in the past that they had their own limits to their GoT love (when it won drama series in 2018, it only received 3 ATL acting nominations). They didn’t have to default to her in a field like that and the fact they did even as someone like Seehorn (or even someone like Hawes) had lots of individual buzz going for them that year tells me that does performers themselves weren’t placing that high in that category in the first place.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if people like Metz and Watson or even Aduba were ahead of Seehorn considering how well This is Us performed that year in slots of 7 and Aduba’s individual record with the TV academy.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Manav
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    #1204960314

    Awardswatch Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series

    1. Succession (HBO)
    2. Squid Game (Netflix)
    3. Ozark (Netflix)
    4. Better Call Saul (AMC)
    5. Stranger Things (Netflix)
    6. Severance (AppleTV+)
    7. This Is Us (NBC)
    8. Yellowjackets (Showtime)

    Look out for: Euphoria; Yellowstone; Bridgerton; Pachinko

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    EviAdd711
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    #1204960338

    Awardswatch Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series 1. Succession (HBO) 2. Squid Game (Netflix) 3. Ozark (Netflix) 4. Better Call Saul (AMC) 5. Stranger Things (Netflix) 6. Severance (AppleTV+) 7. This Is Us (NBC) 8. Yellowjackets (Showtime) Look out for: Euphoria; Yellowstone; Bridgerton; Pachinko

    The fact that they have Stranger Things above Severance makes me want to weep openly. I think that show is a Masterpiece. So confusing. A least they have it getting nominated, unlike the what’s his name Forecast.

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    EviAdd711
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    #1204960342

    Matt Rousch (TV Guide) updated his picks on GD. Comedy is pretty much what most others are saying but definitely not so in Drama.
    His Top 3 in Series:

    Succession

    This is Us (I can’t even)

    Severance (Go, Matt, go!!)

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