Home Forums Television Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 17)

Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 17)

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    Drama King
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    #1204979516

    He doesn’t even have Aniston in and she’s probably a lock.

    Exactly! It’s a set of preferences! And influencing voters while calling it objective. If he just got rid of that BS at the beginning I think it wouldn’t bother me so much.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204979543

    Aniston isn’t a lock as much as I’d love her to be

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    wolfali
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    #1204979551

    Aniston isn’t a lock as much as I’d love her to be

    Agreed.

    She’s obviously still in contention and can easily get in on visibility alone but she kind of reminds me of Elisabeth Moss a few years ago in that she’s the only contender in this category who doesn’t really have much going for them at this point outside of that? She had a lot of momentum for season 1 going into voting (the finale of The Morning Show was very acclaimed and the show had the opportunity to build as a new series, she won SAG, there was a novelty around her giving a more serious and “prestige”y turn) and whilst she’s very deserving of a nomination for season 2, that upsurge just doesn’t feel very present at this stage. The show did well at the winter awards but a dozen dramas that either have attracted more passion or buzz have aired since then and The Morning Show isn’t even the top drama priority of its streamer at this stage of the season.

    Laura Linney is contending with her final season, Zendaya is the incumbent winner, Melanie Lynskey has a lot of individual buzz and critical acclaim going for her right now, Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh are also relatively buzzy in spite of the Killing Eve finale’s dismal reception (and also have more recency as they did last time when they got in over contenders like Moss), Kelly Reilly and Britt Lower are both in shows with growing momentum, Mandy Moore could theoretically come from behind if voters are still actually watching This is Us whilst with Aniston it kind of feels like the only thing in her favour is that she is who she is and that she’s really good on the show? With an unlimited ballot that could be enough to get her in but if we see passion picks like Lynskey turning up on nominations morning, I can see her being in a perilous position.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204979555

    Yeah, Crudup is more of a lock than Aniston. I would actually be shocked to see him miss out whereas Aniston wouldn’t shock me at all. Succession really doesn’t deserve 4 supporting actor slots either. Culkin and Macfayden? Sure. They had great seasons. Nicholas Braun was good but he felt pretty minor for most of the season and his awkward dating life(or lack thereof) wasn’t terribly compelling and Ruck couldn’t even get in when Succession took over the world in a pandemic year.

    If Ruck gets nominated instead of Crudup then the voters will have failed. But I am 99.9% certain it will never happen.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204979578

    Agreed.

    She’s obviously still in contention and can easily get in on visibility alone but she kind of reminds me of Elisabeth Moss a few years ago in that she’s the only contender in this category who doesn’t really have much going for them at this point outside of that? She had a lot of momentum for season 1 going into voting (the finale of The Morning Show was very acclaimed and the show had the opportunity to build as a new series, she won SAG, there was a novelty around her giving a more serious and “prestige”y turn) and whilst she’s very deserving of a nomination for season 2, that upsurge just doesn’t feel very present at this stage. The show did well at the winter awards but a dozen dramas that either have attracted more passion or buzz have aired since then and The Morning Show isn’t even the top drama priority of its streamer at this stage of the season.

    Laura Linney is contending with her final season, Zendaya is the incumbent winner, Melanie Lynskey has a lot of individual buzz and critical acclaim going for her right now, Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh are also relatively buzzy in spite of the Killing Eve finale’s dismal reception (and also have more recency as they did last time when they got in over contenders like Moss), Kelly Reilly and Britt Lower are both in shows with growing momentum, Mandy Moore could theoretically come from behind if voters are still actually watching This is Us whilst with Aniston it kind of feels like the only thing in her favour is that she is who she is and that she’s really good on the show? With an unlimited ballot that could be enough to get her in but if we see passion picks like Lynskey turning up on nominations morning, I can see her being in a perilous position.

    Agree with all of this. It’s a strange one as well because I could also see a day where due to the unlimited ballot The Morning Show overperforms with actors again and gets Witherspoon/Duplass/Carrell in. I do believe it’s a show voters will have seen after all and I also think we know actors like it and it didn’t just get in at SAG because of the weak competition even if that definitely helped.

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    ejaru1810
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    #1204979588

    The Morning Show is a show that we know they industry is watching (getting Carrell and Duplas nominated last time proved it) and while Aniston may be someone who has no chance for the win, she’s an extremely liked and popular actress by the industry and audiences starring a popular show. All of that makes her a lock to me. The unlimited ballot and her ballot placement helps her a lot.

    If she misses I’d be honestly shocked, especially for someone like Linskey or Lower.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204979604

    I wouldn’t say The Morning Show is popular. I would say it is a star heavy show that benefitted from a weak field in 2020 and benefitted even more by an arguably weaker field during the winter awards both due in large part to the pandemic and the dearth of quality content available.

    Not to mention the second season was a huge step down in quality from the first season. If you look at the episode ratings on IMDB the 1st and 2nd season are night and day. Season one never has a single episode dip below 8.0 whereas the 2nd season only has 2 episodes that score the same or higher.

    I just believe there is a lot of fallacy in thinking anything that happened in 2020 or 2021 is going to be predictive of The Morning Show in 2022 in an exceptionally stronger field for a much weaker season.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204979613

    TMS getting 2 actresses at SAG and 0 at emmys just seems off. And wouldn’t it be unprecedented?

    Sure the lack of competition helped the show during winter but it still performed great everywhere except for DGA (and that’s the case for everyone that’s not Succession), and even overperformed at some places like Duplass at GG. Like it had no business getting at WGA anyway and it still got it. I just don’t see Aniston missing for the likes of Lower or Reilly.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204979630

    Aniston is definitely on the fringe. But those SAG cupboards were completely barren. So many shows had not aired yet that are going to be nominated a ton (Severance, Ozark) shows that have a way stronger history with the Emmys (Killing Eve, This Is Us) and a show that was basically airing at the time of voting (Yellowjackets).

    Aniston has the best show of a nomination out of the ladies but she’s not a lock by any stretch. She lost to a supporting role that might not even win in supporting at the Emmys because the competition is so much tougher now.

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    Victor
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    #1204979644

    Drama Actress is a mess, i only consider Linney safe. I could even see Zendaya missing.

    FYC:

    All things Succession, Severance, Ted Lasso, The Great and The White Lotus! Also, Colin Firth and Janelle James while you're at it.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204979649

    It will be interesting to see in a few weeks whether the large and populist SAG-AFTRA voting body continues to be a bellwether for the Emmys. I am not sold on much of the stats-based prognostication that goes on on GD, and I became increasingly skeptical at this year’s SAG Awards. SAG is not an automatic Emmy nom. Correlation does not imply causation.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    wolfali
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    #1204979652

    Agree with all of this. It’s a strange one as well because I could also see a day where due to the unlimited ballot The Morning Show overperforms with actors again and gets Witherspoon/Duplass/Carrell in. I do believe it’s a show voters will have seen after all and I also think we know actors like it and it didn’t just get in at SAG because of the weak competition even if that definitely helped.

    I agree a world where The Morning Show also gets Witherspoon, Duplass and Carrell in is as likely as one where it only gets Crudup in above the line because it has the visibility. We know enough industry voters watched this show to give it multiple SAG nominations when they could have just defaulted to someone like Sterling K. Brown (who until this year had yet to have missed an individual SAG nomination for his show) instead of nominating Crudup again or just gone for a left field choice in actress like they’ve done so many times in the past instead of nominating Witherspoon. I think the question that whatever lineup we end up will hinge on is whether these voters have watched as many shows as those of us on a forum like this have for The Morning Show and Killing Eve to be something that is a distant memory or will these shows be the freshest in their minds? Most voters obviously will have seen Succession and Squid Game and will be aware of Ozark being on its final season and the breakout buzz around Yellowstone and Severance because those are too big to ignore but how many of them are watching something like Yellowjackets (which whilst a critically acclaimed social media favourite is still relatively niche in retrospect to other shows, in part due to the network it is on)? This is Us has final season buzz but are voters who have already given up on the show and are struggling to make time to watch much more buzzed about comedy and limited contenders really going to revisit an 18 episode network drama they’ve not seen an episode of in years in spite of it being buzzy?

    This is why regardless of the final lineup we end up with, I also really don’t see why Comer and Oh would finish outside of the top 8 here. The argument for them missing is that voters will react in the same way as Twitter and to be fair pretty much most people (including myself) has but at the same time if they’ve watched it, are they really going to be so offended by the finale that they’ll refrain from checking off either lead performance from the show. I mean we can debate over whether Comer and Oh actually deserve to get nominated this year but none of the negativity around the show has been focused around them and they’ve arguably come off the show quite positively. They were both named as a part of TVLine’s “performers of the week” feature for the finale, lots of pundits are still actively pushing for the former for the nomination, Oh is campaigning quite a lot and seems to be generating eyeballs when doing so and both have generated really positive buzz for pretty much the entirety of the past year due to having multiple projects during the eligibility period.

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    wolfali
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    #1204979665

    TMS getting 2 actresses at SAG and 0 at emmys just seems off. And wouldn’t it be unprecedented?

    It has actually happened before. Grace and Frankie got 2 individual SAG nominations in 2019 and then went on to miss for not only Fonda (who had already gotten in multiple times at SAG without getting in at the Emmys for the show) but also Tomlin (who had never missed an Emmy nomination for the show until that point) at the Emmys.

    Furthermore there are multiple instances of shows getting 2+ SAG nominations and then translating only one of its individual SAG nods to Emmy nominations under this voting system.

    2017: Stranger Things (Millie Bobby Brown nominated, Winona Ryder snubbed)
    2018: GLOW (Alison Brie and Marc Maron both snubbed), Ozark (Jason Bateman nominated, Laura Linney snubbed)
    2019: no instances
    2020: Fleabag (Phoebe Waller-Bridge nominated, Andrew Scott snubbed)
    2021: The Queen’s Gambit (Anya Taylor-Joy nominated, Bill Camp snubbed), The Undoing (Hugh Grant nominated, Nicole Kidman snubbed)

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    Jameson250
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    #1204979699

    If she misses I’d be honestly shocked, especially for someone like Linskey or Lower.

    With the amount of buzz, press, etc. that she has received, I will be shocked if Linskey is not nominated. She’s been on any and every list I’ve ever seen (usually featured). Lower is a much more unlikely shot, which sucks.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204979704

    Yeah, I am pretty confident Lynskey will be nominated. She seems quite beloved by the industry and as I have mentioned before I don’t think calling it a snub for SAG is all that fair since the show was still airing when voting closed. I’m not sure most voters even had a chance to watch even if they wanted to. The Morning Show on the other hand aired before and during the voting period and was finished by the time voting closed. If Yellowjackets aired in September I’d say her snub would be a bit more valid but it aired in mid November through January 2022. Nominations were announced before the finale even aired.

    I also think the popularity of Candy will only help her in terms of her visibility. I wouldn’t be shocked if she was double nominated this year. I’d be more shocked by a complete shutout, anyway.

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