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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 18)

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    wolfali
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    #1205002817

    Still think New Car Smell was the better episode of season 2. But the direction wasn’t my issue with Q&A. Overwrought and unworthy of the writing Emmy that year. I’d have been fine with it winning directing as it was not my first or second choice but it was more deserving in that category to me.

    The writing on the episode was a bit lacklustre and I personally found both “Say My Name” and “The Rains of Castamere” more deserving in that category but I thought Glatter’s directing made that episode really compelling. I’m not the biggest fan of Homeland itself (although I did quite like the first season and Danes’ performance on the show) but I can’t say I wasn’t captivated during that episode.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002828

    Yes, but it is not a coincidence that the writers went for Loki and Yellowjackets, while both the actors and the producers went for Yellowstone and Squid Game. All three of them nominated Morning Show, Succession and Handmaid’s Tale (and the directors infamously only went for Succession).

    PGA is the same case as SAG. Nomination polls open in December and close in early-mid January. They’d aired about 4-6 episodes by the time nomination polls opened and closed before airing the final two episodes. And honestly, the fact that they even broke through at WGA in any capacity should show there’s probably a lot more industry support for the show than we are admitting because no other show airing when Yellowjackets did (where only part of their episodes aired during eligibility) were nominated.

    Yellowjackets is immune to any winter awards criticism as far as I am concerned because they are the only show in Emmy contention that aired when they did and over two separate eligibility periods in basically all the guilds.

    I’m not saying Yellowjackets is The Sopranos or anything either. I just think it’s an thin argument to point out what they didn’t pull off during the winter award season. Instead of discounting it for that we should be elevating the fact they even got into WGA.

    Honestly, this discussion has me feeling the Pilot is probably as close to a lock for a writing nomination as any other show not named Succession or Severance.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205002835

    PGA is the same case as SAG. Nomination polls open in December and close in early-mid January. They’d aired about 4-6 episodes by the time nomination polls opened and closed before airing the final two episodes. And honestly, the fact that they even broke through at WGA in any capacity should show there’s probably a lot more industry support for the show than we are admitting because no other show airing when Yellowjackets did (where only part of their episodes aired during eligibility) were nominated.

    Yellowjackets is immune to any winter awards criticism as far as I am concerned because they are the only show in Emmy contention that aired when they did and over two separate eligibility periods in basically all the guilds.

    I’m not saying Yellowjackets is The Sopranos or anything either. I just think it’s an thin argument to point out what they didn’t pull off during the winter award season. Instead of discounting it for that we should be elevating the fact they even got into WGA.

    Honestly, this discussion has me feeling the Pilot is probably as close to a lock for a writing nomination as any other show not named Succession or Severance.

    Excellent points, you convinced me about the writing being a lock, it makes sense. I still do not see it entering the Program category. Writing, Lynskey and Ricci is what I am predicting.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002837

    The writing on the episode was a bit lacklustre and I personally found both “Say My Name” and “The Rains of Castamere” more deserving in that category but I thought Glatter’s directing made that episode really compelling. I’m not the biggest fan of Homeland itself (although I did quite like the first season and Danes’ performance on the show) but I can’t say I wasn’t captivated during that episode.

    As the biggest fan boy of Breaking Bad when it aired, Say My Name was probably my least favorite episode of the entire series. I would have hated if it won writing. I think they nominated the right episode in directing too(“Gliding Over All”).

    I actually really disliked a lot about Breaking Bad 5a. So, after 4 years of overpredicting the show having it breakthrough and finally win series and get the writing nominations for my least favorite episode and season was bittersweet to say the least.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002848

    Excellent points, you convinced me about the writing being a lock, it makes sense. I still do not see it entering the Program category. Writing, Lynskey and Ricci is what I am predicting.

    I think it depends on how well TMS and Yellowstone do. I am predicting a pretty significant fall from grace for TMS and I don’t believe the TV academy will go for Yellowstone regardless of how popular it is. If I am wrong about both of those shows then you’re probably right about Yellowjackets missing out in series. They are currently 6th in my predictions.

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    wolfali
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    #1205002857

    As crazy as it may sound I wonder if Ricci could pull off a supporting actress upset if she gets in. Things can obviously change once we get to nominations but I feel like with each passing week there appear to be cracks into the lead of this category that both Garner and Ho-Yeon have whilst Ricci seems to be one of the only ascendant contenders in this category (Sadie Sink being the other imo) and I wonder if both her increasing buzz and the potential makeup of the field could play to her advantage.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002866

    Supporting Actress could be a blood bath this year. There’s like 4-5 performances that would all be worthy winners in many other years. Cherry Jones in 24 circa 2009 probably wouldn’t even get nominated let alone win in 2022.

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    Heptapod
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    #1205002870

    Hate to say it because I really don’t want it to happen, but I think Ricci is going to be one of the big surprise snubs. Her Critics Choice snub is a pretty big red flag, especially if they liked Yellowjackets enough to give Lynskey the win, and I can’t help but feel the similarities to Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer. Granted, Ricci is a MUCH better known name than Comer was during KE s1, but cultural relevance from a few decades ago won’t get you everything (just ask Winona Ryder). I think Yellowjackets will have an upward awards trajectory, so I think Ricci will be nominated next time (and possibly be win-competitive a la Comer), but while I very much hope I’m wrong, if Yellowjackets isn’t getting into Series I don’t think Ricci is either. I think the show needs just a bit more time and visibility.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002884

    I think a lot more people have discovered Yellowjackets since the Critic’s Choice awards and she’s also been doing a ton of press. I agree it is strange that they gave it to Lynskey but didn’t nominate Ricci. I don’t think that necessarily hurts her though since Lynskey’s win gave her the visibility needed with voters either way if it did anything at all.

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    wolfali
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    #1205002892

    Hate to say it because I really don’t want it to happen, but I think Ricci is going to be one of the big surprise snubs. Her Critics Choice snub is a pretty big red flag, especially if they liked Yellowjackets enough to give Lynskey the win, and I can’t help but feel the similarities to Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer. Granted, Ricci is a MUCH better known name than Comer was during KE s1, but cultural relevance from a few decades ago won’t get you everything (just ask Winona Ryder). I think Yellowjackets will have an upward awards trajectory, so I think Ricci will be nominated next time (and possibly be win-competitive a la Comer), but while I very much hope I’m wrong, if Yellowjackets isn’t getting into Series I don’t think Ricci is either. I think the show needs just a bit more time and visibility.

    I was hesitant about predicting Ricci earlier on in the season (and I’d be lying if I said I was confident in her getting nominated or consider her to be a nomination lock) but I also feel like if she doesn’t get in then who? This category is enough of a wasteland that there’s a very strong chance that Millie Bobby Brown gets nominated for her first industry award since 2018 due to visibility and I feel like in those last two slots we’re bound to have one or two performers getting in and she’s the one who makes the most sense. Unlike Christine Baranski or Yuh-jung Youn she’s in a show that is very likely getting a drama actress nomination and unlike Fiona Shaw and Sydney Sweeney she doesn’t suffer from any negative buzz towards her show (not that there is any in the first place towards Yellowjackets).

    A drama series snub would obviously hurt her chances but it wouldn’t surprise me if Yellowjackets ends up pulling off a similar haul to something like Ramy where its too niche to get into series but it gets its win competitive lead in, its buzzed about supporting veteran in and then a writing/a directing nomination. I don’t really feel like her Critics Choice snub is too big a red flag because her buzz (and Yellowjackets‘) peaked months after those nominations were announced and the show had only aired three episodes before their nominating period (of which both the narrative and critical focus was on Lynskey’s performance).

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205003001

    Hate to say it because I really don’t want it to happen, but I think Ricci is going to be one of the big surprise snubs. Her Critics Choice snub is a pretty big red flag, especially if they liked Yellowjackets enough to give Lynskey the win, and I can’t help but feel the similarities to Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer. Granted, Ricci is a MUCH better known name than Comer was during KE s1, but cultural relevance from a few decades ago won’t get you everything (just ask Winona Ryder). I think Yellowjackets will have an upward awards trajectory, so I think Ricci will be nominated next time (and possibly be win-competitive a la Comer), but while I very much hope I’m wrong, if Yellowjackets isn’t getting into Series I don’t think Ricci is either. I think the show needs just a bit more time and visibility.

    Your comment made me went into panic :O 😀 Just 2 days ago I removed Rhea Seehorn in order to put Ricci. I just think that Ricci is the clear MVP of the show, I have to believe that they will vote for her if they care about the show at all.

    be a nomination lock) but I also feel like if she doesn’t get in then who? This category is enough of a wasteland that there’s a very strong chance that Millie Bobby Brown gets nominated for her first industry award since 2018 due to visibility and I feel like in those last two slots we’re bound to have one or two performers getting in and she’s the one who makes the most sense.

    Your comment about Brown is pretty misleading. She only missed for season 3, so just once, and it was because season 3 aired an entire year before Emmy voting and 7 months before SAG voting.

    I also completely disagree about this category being a “wasteland”, it is a bloodbath. And this is why most of you will be wrong about J. Smith-Cameron, there are too many good and vital performances, it would be madness to nominate her for such a small role (of course, I might be wrong and they might go crazy for Succession, but we have already discussed that, I am also NOT predicting Braun and Ruck)

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    estrelas
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    #1205003005

    I also completely disagree about this category being a “wasteland”, it is a bloodbath. And this is why most of you will be wrong about J. Smith-Cameron, there are too many good and vital performances, it would be madness to nominate her for such a small role (of course, I might be wrong and they might go crazy for Succession, but we have already discussed that, I am also NOT predicting Braun and Ruck

    I’ve been saying girl is far from a lock, like several people are saying. Don’t really see any reason for her to be happening, when there’s enough alternatives and her material doesn’t warrant a nom. She also couldn’t happen for s2, when the show exploded and got 9 acting noms.

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    MrAmerica
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    #1205003011

    I’ve been saying girl is far from a lock, like several people are saying. Don’t really see any reason for her to be happening, when there’s enough alternatives and her material doesn’t warrant a nom. She also couldn’t happen for s2, when the show exploded and got 9 acting noms.

    Well, there are people who do feel strongly about the performance, including myself. She’s my favorite performance on the show (along with Cox + Braun). If we all of a sudden want to limit Succession’s acting nominations, can we start by admitting that Macfadyen, Culkin, Strong and Snook are actually pretty average, and sacrifice one of them instead?

    I do know this last part will be considered heresy, but honestly, I really don’t get it. I think those four performances range from mediocre (Macfadyen) to downright bad (Culkin).

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    estrelas
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    #1205003015

    Well, there are people who do feel strongly about the performance, including myself. She’s my favorite performance on the show (along with Cox + Braun). If we all of a sudden want to limit Succession’s acting nominations, can we start by admitting that Macfadyen, Culkin, Strong and Snook are actually pretty average, and sacrifice one of them instead? I do know this last part will be considered heresy, but honestly, I really don’t get it. I think those four performances range from mediocre (Macfadyen) to downright bad (Culkin).

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    probablyROB
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    #1205003021

    MacFayden, Strong, and Culkin give the best performances on the show and have since the first episode in my opinion.

    S1+2 Strong was the best and S3 MacFayden was.

    Snook and Cox are also very good. Could take or leave Braun. But maybe because I find his character irritating at this point so maybe its not his fault.

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