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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 20)

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    TV_Lover
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    #1205041104

    Yes, I think it’s as simple as that! I’m guessing Aniston was close behind, and that Reese was close behind the year before, so that the difference was truly in the performances and how much they struck chords vs. whether they were high quality, which they both were. I mean, just speaking for myself and a small number of others I’ve talked to, I think there is a group of people for whom Reese evoking the emotions of (a) dealing with addiction and mental health issues of loved ones or (b) being outed really hit home. Or both! She nailed both, in my opinion. (though I still can’t believe “A Private Person” wasn’t her submission…)

    Say it again! She might not win, but I think it makes sense that she was nominated over Aniston, and shows actors watched the show and made a decision based on that. Which isn’t to say Aniston wasn’t good. I wonder what the result would have been with the old rule where if it’s close, they add another nominee.

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    forwardswill
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    #1205041157

    I imagine Aniston and Witherspoon were almost neck and neck and the latter won out because her performance and character vastly improved this season whilst Aniston was associated with the more controversial elements (specifically COVID). Her character also became far less likeable than Witherspoon’s and sadly I think voters care about that to an extent.

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    forwardswill
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    #1205041172

    I’d also add that there’s something to be said to the influence of their season 1 performances. Regardless of who people prefer, almost everyone seems to agree that Witherspoon improved drastically on the first season and simultaneously everyone thinks that Aniston was better before. Accordingly, everyone is thinking of Witherspoon positively and Aniston more negatively even if they thought she was still great.
    With this theory I think you can also see how many who preferred Aniston would have voted for Witherspoon as a way of commending her improvement (it’s an unlimited ballot after all) whilst the Witherspoon voters would not have had reason to necessarily be so kind in reverse.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1205041395

    I imagine Aniston and Witherspoon were almost neck and neck and the latter won out because her performance and character vastly improved this season whilst Aniston was associated with the more controversial elements (specifically COVID). Her character also became far less likeable than Witherspoon’s and sadly I think voters care about that to an extent.

    Worth noting that previous nominees from Aniston storyline, Carell, Duplass and to some extent Short with the exception of Harden, also got dropped so her storyline was probably rejected by voters just like it was by viewers.

    The fact they still liked part of the show enough to nominate Witherspoon makes me predict a Crudup repeat, who remained praised by all, has the SAG nomination and is basically a lead performance.

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    wolfali
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    #1205041658

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Couverture
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    #1205043512

    “What show from this year’s crop – other than your own – would you have liked to work on?”

    In terms of sheer numbers, and consistency the winner of this little exercise, hands down, was Ben Stiller’s first season series on Apple TV+, Severance. Across the board in terms of different branches it was the name that came up most often with a general consensus that it was the most unique, at least that is the impression I got and, with most of these actors, creatives, and artisans a new show that they have clearly been watching. That perhaps explains its very impressive breakthrough this year with 14 nominations, a number topped only by six other shows that had more. When asked what show he would want to be associated with, Seth Meyers took a beat and then said, “Severance”. I pointed out he was the fifth in a row that mentioned that series and he was surprised. “I thought I was going to be different than everyone else,” he laughed.

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    wolfali
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    #1205043517

    “What show from this year’s crop – other than your own – would you have liked to work on?” In terms of sheer numbers, and consistency the winner of this little exercise, hands down, was Ben Stiller’s first season series on Apple TV+, Severance. Across the board in terms of different branches it was the name that came up most often with a general consensus that it was the most unique, at least that is the impression I got and, with most of these actors, creatives, and artisans a new show that they have clearly been watching. That perhaps explains its very impressive breakthrough this year with 14 nominations, a number topped only by six other shows that had more. When asked what show he would want to be associated with, Seth Meyers took a beat and then said, “Severance”. I pointed out he was the fifth in a row that mentioned that series and he was surprised. “I thought I was going to be different than everyone else,” he laughed.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    boss
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    #1205043642

    I recently watched the third season of Succession and IMO it should not win drama series, at its best it’s just an extension of what the show did in its second season for which it has already been rewarded for. Severance on the other hand is wholly original and utterly captivating from start to end. Severance could win a la Fleabag which didn’t win because it had the most nominations (it even missed a crucial Andrew Scott nomination) but it had passion.

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    ejaru1810
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    #1205043682

    I think Severance will get the Succession treatment, a first season that puts in on the map (maybe with a atl win at the Emmys) and then a second or third season that will destroy it’s competition in every awards show.

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    antony
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    #1205043890

    she never misses

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    jjjmoss
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    #1205043952

    I think Severance will get the Succession treatment, a first season that puts in on the map (maybe with a atl win at the Emmys) and then a second or third season that will destroy it’s competition in every awards show.

    idk, succession has the advantage of

    hbo #1 awards marketer

    White Family Drama, a very traditional genre

     

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    Mister Gaga
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    #1205044007

    Any of you think MacFadyen stands a better chance than Culkin?

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205044094

    Looking now at the drama series and lead actress nominees, I am reminded of this. With only one very women-centric/feminist show nominated, does this help Yellowjackets? Maybe not in series given the strong frontrunner, but in other categories – especially lead actress for Lynskey, leveraging the support from women voters, even against other women nominees from male skewing shows?

    If I look at the IMDB demos, Euphoria is the most female skewing (but also by far the youngest, enough so that’s probably a more predominant feature), followed by Killing Eve, and then The Morning Show and Yellowjackets have a slightly older female demo that’s really similar. To me the possible benefactors to that are probably Ricci in supporting (I think Sweeney risks cancel out by HoYeon) but most notably, the only male actor nominated in those shows – Crudup.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1205044096

    If I look at the IMDB demos, Euphoria is the most female skewing (but also by far the youngest, enough so that’s probably a more predominant feature), followed by Killing Eve, and then The Morning Show and Yellowjackets have a slightly older female demo that’s really similar. To me the possible benefactors to that are probably Ricci in supporting (I think Sweeney risks cancel out by HoYeon) but most notably, the only male actor nominated in those shows – Crudup.

    I meant among series nominees and I discounted Euphoria because its viewers are not Academy voting age and it is not a feminist show. Yellowjackets is the only option for women voters who enjoy women-centric stories and casts led by women.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205044098

    I meant among series nominees and I discounted Euphoria because its viewers are not Academy voting age and it is not a feminist show. Yellowjackets is the only option for women voters who enjoy women-centric stories and casts led by women.

    Possibly –  I’d balance it out by being (perhaps) more fringe in terms of overall viewership, but then I can see Oh/Witherspoon voters defaulting to Yellowjackets in series if KE/TMS aren’t options, maybe even Comer’s too.

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