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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 6)

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    Manav
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    #1204521598

    but from a Netflix perspective I think they’d prefer to have it in drama as this is one of their (on paper) weaker years.

    I think Netflix is in a dilemma. While this year is weak for them in Drama and on one hand, Squid Game can help win major contemporary creative arts awards. On the other hand, they have Ozark which will likely be a big player in above the line categories. Netflix may not want it’s two big series competing against each other and may be tempted to shift Squid Game to Limited where they have only Maid (till now) and Squid Game is the only one that seems plausible to stop the HBO juggernaut (Mare Of Easttown and The White Lotus). They may want Squid Game to be something like this year’s The Queen’s Gambit for them.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204521657

    I think Netflix is in a dilemma. While this year is weak for them in Drama and on one hand, Squid Game can help win major contemporary creative arts awards.

    That said they do tend to submit more shows than, say, HBO, and have had some contenders in the past that tend to just go BTL (like The Umbrella Academy).  I counted five or six shows that they would be likely or able to submit so it isn’t the end of the world, but it might mean being very strategic.

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    wolfali
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    #1204521791

    Considering how Netflix had The Crown and Ozark directly competing against each other in 2020 and Unbelievable and Unorthodox that same year I’m sure they’ll be fine with campaigning Squid Game and Ozark in drama when they’re essentially the only two they have this year that seem to be “strong contenders”.

    Maid aside Netflix already have limited series from David E. Kelley and Shonda Rhimes coming up this season (of course whether they’re good or not remains to be seen but it’s not like that’s really mattered for Netflix’s Emmy campaigns in the past).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    methaddiction
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    #1204522006

    He’s clearing guest actor next year

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    Heptapod
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    #1204522084

    1. Julia Garner, Ozark – Beat a much stronger field in 2020 and is absolutely strong enough to threepeat.

    2. Sarah Snook, Succession – Probably Garner’s biggest challenger as it stands now. Even if Smith-Cameron is nominated, I don’t see vote splits standing in her way.

    3. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age – Woman could read a grocery list and make it win-worthy. Her role would probably have to be super underwritten or TGA would have to be an all-around flop for her not to get nominated.

    4. Julianna Margulies, The Morning Show – I haven’t started TMS s2 just yet, but based on what I’ve been hearing, she may not be the winner we thought she was going to be, but seeing how the actors like the show, this just makes sense.

    5. Denée Benton, The Gilded Age – Sensing she’ll be the breakout fan favorite of the show. This category is also looking to be very, very white so here’s to hoping she can keep an all-white category from happening. She’s also appeared in all of the (albeit very few) set photos we’ve gotten, suggesting her role is a significant one.

    6. Gwendoline Christie, The Sandman – There is sooo much love for her after her GoT nomination. She’s got an incredibly cool and interesting role, too. Unsure if The Sandman will be an awards thing, but if it is like I’m predicting it to be, she’s probably first in line from the cast.

    7. Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age – Honestly all of the spots for the Gilded Age ladies on this list are interchangeable. We won’t know anything until the show premieres, obviously, but at least right now this is the order that makes sense to me.

    8. Jenna Coleman, The Sandman – I’m really not confident in Coleman being in this slot, but I’ve got her in for now just because I like her a lot and would LOVE to see her get a nomination after how much strong work she’s put out on TV for the past decade. She’s playing two characters too, which is of course quite baity.

    9. Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve – Despite what you think about whether or not it deserves it, I do think Killing Eve is returning to take advantage of a weak field one more time. However, it seems people are tiring of this show, and while I don’t think that’ll necessarily be directed towards Shaw, she feels like the one most likely to be left behind for newer, flashier ensembles.

    10. Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things – I continue to love Brown’s work (even in Enola Holmes she was fantastic), but I think her time at the Emmys for Stranger Things may be done. As Eleven grows more accustomed the world and “normal,” the character becomes less unique, and Brown’s opportunities to achieve what she was praised for in the early seasons diminish. This one really depends on what the writing team gives her, though, because it’s probably not a coincidence that she missed once the writers started giving her less and weaker material.

    11. J. Smith-Cameron, Succession – Maybe I’m a cynic, but despite how much I adore Gerri, Smith-Cameron feels like a perennial snub to me. Will have to see the season of course before I judge, but she’s always felt peripheral to the main drama of the show, and while fans may love her, I doubt she’ll stick enough in voters’ minds to get her in unless they start doing something new with her character.

    12. HoYeon Jung, Squid Game – I’m ashamed to admit that I haven’t seen this show yet, but if I’m not wrong, it seems the men have more hype performance-wise. But it seems unfortunately likely that the Emmys may pull a Parasite here (award the show but leave the actors unrecognized).

    13. Hunter Schafer, Euphoria – Would love for this to happen, but I doubt it will.

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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    wolfali
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    #1204522086

    If Sarah Snook goes lead (and gets nominated there) I’m intrigued to see who is the most vulnerable in that category when it comes to being kicked out?

    Linney and Baranski feel safe unless their shows flop or end up being smaller contenders than we’re expecting (Ozark and <i>The Gilded Age</i> are airing in the spring and have strong pedigrees and casts). With <i>Killing Eve</i> airing in the spring, this being the final season, how they made it in last time with such a competitive field and the fact they essentially are and going to be everywhere (Comer because of <i>The Last Duel</i> and Free Guy, Oh because she essentially campaigns every year and she’s got some visibility from The Chair) I think the only thing that can really hurt Comer and Oh is a substantial drop in buzz or a Westworld esque panning of season 4. I actually think Oh has a strong shot of being win competitive next year too.

    Is it crazy to think that Aniston and Zendaya might be on “shakier ground”? Sure the former’s show did so well in nominations last time and Zendaya is an incumbent winner but there have been other contenders in the past who have had both those things going for them before their subsequent seasons premiered and have still missed the nomination.

    Both of them being on the top of both halves of the ballot makes me hesitant to drop them (as is the fact their performances are and continue to be the most acclaimed aspects of their shows). But at the end of the day The Morning Show already seems to be lacking from a loss of buzz (although that can obviously change in the second half of the season) and is airing so early (last time it was essentially being seen throughout the entire season because it was a new show voters were catching up on and it had an incredible amount of buzz, partly due to Aniston’s big TV return). It still got so many nominations without a series nod but if it falters at the winter awards, it might suggest that it could easily be forgotten by Emmy voting in June. Zendaya is riskier to consider on shaky ground and I know they were special episodes but the fact she couldn’t make it in at any of the winter awards in the weak field for them and that they couldn’t perform so strongly at the Emmys in the categories they were eligible for in the weak field makes me wonder if she might be someone who the nomination is the hurdle for but the win less so. Rami Malek and Nicole Kidman both got dropped in competitive fields just after they won in spite of making it in at the winter awards.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Luca
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    #1204522089

    I would argue that Shaw is prob much higher considering she got nominated last year when the field was kinda stacked. And with The White Lotus very likely competing in drama, I believe it will take up several slots. Fingers crossed for Alexandra Daddario.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204522093

    Agreed about Zendaya, wolfali. Everything we’ve seen and heard about Euphoria season two has me honestly very worried, and while I do think Zendaya can totally rise above whatever reception the new season receives, there’s a point where voters may just sour on the show as a whole. It’s a show with a very passionate fanbase, but if that fanbase abandons it, it’s got nothing else to prop it up.

    And oh my gosh, I totally missed The White Lotus going drama. That is big, wow.

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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    wolfali
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    #1204522097

    I would argue that Shaw is prob much higher considering she got nominated last year when the field was kinda stacked.

    According to Jodie Comer she is also apparently set to have “a beautiful storyline” so Shaw will have the material to get nominated just like she did last time too.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Victor
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    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1204522105

    I don’t know how Ozark will do with half a season honestly
    It could do great but it could do less great, i guess it’s the first time we’ll see under the new system i guess.
    The Sopranos 6A was a flop and then they come back harder, Breaking Bad 5A still served but not as hard as 5B Emmy wise.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204522123

    Aniston and Zendaya are at the top of the ballots and that will always benefit them greatly

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    wolfali
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    #1204522127

    Aniston and Zendaya are at the top of the ballots and that will always benefit them greatly

    Wever was at the top of her ballot though and still somehow ended up getting snubbed for Octavia Spencer.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204522131

    Wever was at the top of her ballot though and still somehow ended up getting snubbed for Octavia Spencer.

    Well Zendaya is the previous winner and Aniston is well, Aniston. She keeps being praised even if the season isn’t so I don’t see her missing at all.

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    wolfali
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    #1204522157

    Well Zendaya is the previous winner and Aniston is well, Aniston. She keeps being praised even if the season isn’t so I don’t see her missing at all.

    Sure but my point is there is a precedence to these type of snubs. It’s not as if Merritt Wever (or Reese Witherspoon for that matter for Little Fires Everywhere) was some nobody to the television academy or Elisabeth Moss wasn’t a previous winner, incumbent SAG nominee and the lead of a series nominee when they missed due to the competitiveness of the field.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Victor
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    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1204522166

    Merritt Wever snub was so disgusting

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