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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 6)

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    wolfali
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    #1204524296

    I’ve probably gotten off track to my point which was more wondering if it’s the type of “while it’s airing” popularity or all year round. Voters have showed support in different ways – for instance they hypothetically could have gone deeper in supporting for Ozark, but it’s manifested in Garner being the sole nominee and a back to back winner, whilst Handmaid’s is more general but less enthusiastic support. So my question with Succession is do they end up securing more wins and staying more or less as is, or do they get broad support across more nominees?

    I think what’s baring in mind with Ozark is that whilst it has a strong ensemble, it’s not very ensemble driven. At the end of the day you’ll find it hard to find a sub-pro that doesn’t involve Wendy, Marty or Ruth. Janet McTeer and Peter Mullan are well respected actors (and McTeer was very much robbed of a nomination last season) but at the end of the day their characters are quite secondary to the show’s plot in a similar way to how Sarah Niles is quite secondary in Ted Lasso or Jason Watkins and Ben Daniels were in The Crown season 3. A similar argument could be made for Tom Pelphrey because of how much his character’s arc tied in with Wendy’s in season 3 although, perhaps because of how strong his performance was, he did feel quite prominent to the extent one could argue he was level with Linney, Bateman and Garner.

    The opposite is the case for shows like Succession, <i>The Morning Show</i>, The Crown (season 4), The Handmaid’s TaleThe Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Ted Lasso etc. Elisabeth Moss, Jason Sudeikis, Rachel Brosnahan, Olivia Colman, Brian Cox etc are clear leads but each of their shows are also very much ensemble driven. Whether it’s with Roman and Gerri, Greg and Tom and Connor and Willa having such a strong sense of narrative prominence as supporting characters in Succession that it’s almost as if they’re own shows. Or characters like Rebecca and Keeley (or Roy and Keeley) in Ted Lasso or Abe and Rose in Maisel going off on their own humorous adventures.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204524305

    It’s interesting because I remember asking a few people I know if they were watching it not long after season 2 originally aired and they said they had never heard of it but now those same people are the ones who keep sending me messages about the episode.

    It probably doesn’t help that the media has barely covered it here.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204524309

    I think what’s baring in mind with Ozark is that whilst it has a strong ensemble, it’s not very ensemble driven. At the end of the day you’ll find it hard to find a sub-pro that doesn’t involve Wendy, Marty or Ruth. Janet McTeer and Peter Mullan are well respected actors (and McTeer was very much robbed of a nomination last season) but at the end of the day their characters are quite secondary to the show’s plot in a similar way to how Sarah Niles is quite secondary in Ted Lasso

    This is a solid point. I think there’s a few exceptions to that, but they’re understandable (Emerald Fennell, for instance).

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    wolfali
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    #1204524331

    It probably doesn’t help that the media has barely covered it here.

    Doesn’t Rupert Murdoch own the channel it’s on in Australia?

     

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Manav
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    #1204524341

    Doesn’t Rupert Murdoch own the channel it’s on in Australia?

    williams

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    wolfali
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    #1204524363

    It’s kind of interesting because Rupert Murdoch used to own the channel it’s on in the UK as well (and I’m sure had Sky not had a content arrangement with HBO that Succession wouldn’t have aired on there) and then once it was sold to Comcast (who are now owned by the same owners of NBC) three years ago, Sky started fully going overboard in promoting and pushing the show lol. It’s probably the most advertised American show on TV in the UK now.

    Case in point.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204524415

    ky started fully going overboard in promoting and pushing the show lol. It’s probably the most advertised American show on TV in the UK now.

    Traditionally, yes, and Murdoch have a lot of control over all media here (more than the UK ever had).

    Foxtel were advertising The Queen’s Gambit and The Crown here last year because their satellite boxes had a Netflix button.

    The most advertised stuff here is almost entirely football and so much reality TV I want to scream (if I have another conversation about how reality TV is for “real people” and scripted is for snobs, I’ll scream).

    Snook got some press today, but predictably it was just about her love life.

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    Victor
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    #1204524900

    I can’t help but imagine how Murdoch feels about this show LOL.

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    wolfali
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    #1204524926

    I can’t help but imagine how Murdoch feels about this show LOL.

    Probably the same way the royal family feel about The Crown.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Heptapod
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    #1204525059

    Assuming Better Call Saul misses and The White Lotus stays as an anthology.

    1. Matthew Macfadyen, Succession – He looks like he’ll have an awesome tape later this season with Tom’s breakdown that’s been teased. Will it be enough for him to push past a split to a win? Right now I’m thinking no, Culkin and Roman are probably just a tad too beloved. But I’m not counting it out.

    2. Kieran Culkin, Succession – No reason for him to miss, but probably no reason for him to win either.

    3. Billy Crudup, The Morning Show – Without an obvious leader between the first two Succession men, he could repeat just due to name goodwill and leftover love, but I won’t predict yet. Winner will probably be one of the new guys. TMS is going to have to flop even harder than it already is for him to miss.

    4. Nicholas Braun, Succession – Greg is beloved, and Braun is already hilarious this season.

    5. Morgan Spector, The Gilded Age – Robber baron? Yes please! Glad he’ll be able to make up for his Plot Against America snub.

    6. David Thewlis, The Sandman – This role looks REALLY good. Not familiar with the source material, but it sounds like he’s the villain of the series. Keeping him lower because we don’t know much about Sandman, but he’s my predicted winner for right now. Combined hype with Landscapers should help.

    7. David Harbour, Stranger Things – I still have a hunch he’s going lead, and it is worrying how he missed last time, but the fact he’s held onto his individual SAG slot and the show will be much fresher in voters’ minds gives me faith he’ll be back. His character will also probably be operating on his own which will help him stand out in the ever-growing ensemble.

    8. Jack Gilpin, The Gilded Age – I want to predict a second actor from The Gilded Age, and Gilpin looks like the best on the list. Sounds like he’ll be playing the Mr Bates of the group, a butler with a mysterious, dark past. However, watch out for Simon Jones too.

    9. Oh Yeong-su, Squid Game – I probably shouldn’t be predicting an all-white category, but I’m going to need to gauge how people are feeling/talking about Squid Game in six months.

    10. Charles Dance, The Sandman – His role as a charlatan occultist sounds very fun, and we can be pretty confident that he’ll deliver a great performance. Depends on how The Sandman is received overall and how much they give him to do.

    11. Steve Carell, The Morning Show – Ehhhh I underestimated him in 2020 and probably shouldn’t again, but everyone seems to be more confused than anything about why he’s even still around. I also just don’t see TMS getting double nods in any category with how little people seem to care anymore.

    12. Ethan Hawke, Moon Knight – Only if Moon Knight is a big overall contender, which it very well could be in the absence of The Mandalorian. This past year proved that he can’t get in on name/reputation alone. At least this time we’ll be sure that his performance is being seen.

    13. John Turturro, Severance – Toss in Anthony Boyle and we’ll have all the deserving Plot Against America men in the same category!

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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    Tyler
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    #1204525069

    No Mark Duplass?

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    alittle03
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    #1204525080

    Yes, I also think a Succession actor is winning Supporting Actor and I’d also wager between Macfadyen and Culkin. As for Supporting Actress, I think Snook is winning, but I could see Garner or Smith-Cameron overtaking her.

    FYC -
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, The Lost Daughter, Mass
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Fran Kranz
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Corey Hawkins, Jason Isaacs
    Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Kirsten Dunst, Rebecca Ferguson, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd
    O. Screenplay: Spencer, Mass
    A. Screenplay: The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter
    Score: Jonny Greenwood (Dog/Spencer)

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    wolfali
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    #1204525082

    I have Duplass 11th at the moment (that’s assuming Better Call Saul and Stranger Things miss eligibility, if they don’t I’d probably put him between 13th to 15th). If The Morning Show does end up being weaker than it was last time it’s going to suffer some casualties with the field being more competitive than last time and he feels like the first one to go (especially if Carell goes supporting too).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Victor
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    #1204525084

    I’m not sure where all this The Sandman confidence is coming from actually.
    I’m actually thinking it will go the Sweet Tooth, Shadow and bones, etc. route.

    It didn’t help that the teaser looked almost the same as those above, and it don’t have social relevance like Lovecraft Country, neither it will be the main push like The Boys and The Mandalorian were/are.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204525086

    I don’t see Duplass returning even if TMS finishes really well again. He was borderline lead in the first season with actual purpose and influence. This season his character is a bit of a wet sock.

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