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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Drama Categories (Part 6)

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    Victor
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    #1204531452

    The Lords of the Ring is coming for blood.

    They confirmed to September 2022, it will miss.

    It's all about Ethan Hawke!

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531459

    The show has more Imdb ratings and is currently the number 1 show on IMDB.

    Raw IMDB isn’t always the best measure because men in a certain age group wildly over-vote (and women over 45 hardly vote at all and they’re like 25% of all viewers.

    For demographic comparison (here) I think it’s probably  smaller than Wandavision (note that Wandavision has 1/3 more votes in the US) though WV has had more time to get votes so in the end I guess they probably end up fairly equal. An MCU show is probably the correct comparison if I were to guess and the age weighted breakdown seems similar.

     

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    Kim Cardassian
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    #1204531573

    Even if the US numbers favor Bridgerton or Succession for viewership, which I doubt, it won’t matter to the zeitgeist. The public’s perception is that this show is the most viewed show in the history of streaming…no one’s asking for the US #’s, I didn’t even wonder about it until you brought it up. Why haven’t we thought about it? Because unless you’re literally living inside a cave, none of us can dispute that the fervor for SG isn’t anything we’ve ever seen before…the closest comp might actually be a movie, Avengers Endgame. Nearly every news station has done segments on it, celebrities are talking about it, your co-workers near the water coolers are talking about it, TikTok mentions are literally in the tens of billions, heck it’s even infested elementary schools as well, and it’s not Halloween yet…it’s everywhere.

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    Couverture
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    #1204531639

    This is for their second week eligible (their first week captures that – I believe they were 11th after a few days). I would imagine week 3 was too.

    Tbf most of that data is pulled from its first week of release since the previous tracking covered only the first three days.

    I’ll wait to see how much retaining power Squid Game has with the coming weeks. Bridgerton fell from a big peak of 2.6 to 1.6 the very next week. I don’t expect to see that sharp of a decline with the former.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531699

    won’t matter to the zeitgeist. The public’s perception is that this show is the most viewed show in the history of streaming…no one’s asking for the US #’s, I didn’t even wonder about it until you brought it up. Why haven’t we thought about it? Because unless you’re literally living inside a cave, none of us can dispute that the fervor for SG isn’t anything we’ve ever seen before…the

    My point is this is a thing that’s five weeks old without known actors to people in the US. I’m trying to establish whether this is a six week hype bubble or not because I’m personally struggling to see people predicting 6 or 8 actors (I think I would probably go with the show and one or two) mostly because actors won’t have established relationships watching them and may not be inclined to nominate down the line. I don’t mind if people do but this is a predictions thread so trying to understand that is part of it.

    There’s a big difference between it being Halloween costume Zeitgeist and “everyone can recite the cast list” zeitgeist.

    Ted Lasso they did but that was a sustained slow growth over a year.

    As for questioning it, I’m a bit believer in questioning what my bubble says on everything. The internet skews perception at times.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531716

    Has anyone seen anything from Severance? I was expecting a trailer by now.

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    Arden
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    #1204531911

    I have no doubt the show is big. It may be significantly bigger than Bridgerton. But there is a difference between radio commentators today parroting that based on their personal circumstances around 75% of people on earth over the age of 2 have watched it and it’s a sensation in kindergartens to 90 year olds.

    Nah, it really is that big.

    I feel like some people underestimate Squid Game’s competitiveness. I have a feeling it will do well with awards and nominations. Mark my words.

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    wolfali
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    #1204531920

    Has anyone seen anything from Severance? I was expecting a trailer by now.

    The only update I’ve seen is a deadline article about Stiller stating he’s “currently in post” on the show.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531969

    Nah, it really is that big. I feel like some people underestimate Squid Game’s competitiveness. I have a feeling it will do well with awards and nominations. Mark my words.

    75% is ludicrous. If you actually do the math on those figures and presume everyone finishing it (unlikely), that equates to 3.5 million in a population of 330 million. Even if you adjust for it staying at that level for three weeks (it dropped out of no 1 a bit over a week ago) that’s 10 or 11 million.

    Absolutely extraordinary for a streaming show but also less than the linear/streaming of about 19-20 million for GoT in Season 8 (and HBO have a far bigger torrent problem than Netflix) and way less proportionally than something like the final season of Line of Duty in the UK which was nearly 20% of the population.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204531976

    The only update I’ve seen is a deadline article about Stiller stating he’s “currently in post” on the show.

    I don’t feel confident to predict this at this point – not in the last week of October for a nine episode show that presumably does a 3 episode + weekly drop. (Emmys, maybe)

    I don’t think it’s going to have enough time to build an audience with no promo or trade talk?

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    wolfali
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    #1204534553

    I could be wrong but I am getting a feeling Severance will be the drama equivalent to Made For Love. For something supposedly coming out this year Apple seem to not be promoting it one bit and the promise sounds like it will be a bit “too weird”.

    I think if Apple has a non Morning Show contender here it will be Shining Girls. Elisabeth Moss has been nominated at some point for every show she’s done and it will probably get a spring release.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204535106

    There’s a big difference between it being Halloween costume Zeitgeist and “everyone can recite the cast list” zeitgeist. Ted Lasso they did but that was a sustained slow growth over a year.

    Everyone can recite Ted Lasso’s cast list?

    I know Jason S, the nun from GoT and…some other people

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    wolfali
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    #1204535211

    the nun from GoT

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204535216

    They only come on here to hate on everything that isn’t Handmaid’s and Squid Game related..

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    wolfali
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    #1204535221

    They only come on here to hate on everything that isn’t Handmaid’s and Squid Game related..

    Imagine their posts if Elisabeth Moss was cast in Squid Game season 2 lmao.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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