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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 10)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204921612

    Feel like Severance and The White Lotus had pretty memorable turns for new series. Even Maid felt bigger to me than Bridgerton ever did. I had to look the show up after it was announced for its nomination because I’d never heard of it before.

    I think that just speaks to a personal bubble.

    It was number one on Netflix for weeks and weeks.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204921614

    Iconic.

    ssssshhhhhhh

    I mean Bailey’s great, but Hollywood cast Page in 45232 things before he’d left the parking lot.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204921623

    I think that just speaks to a personal bubble.

    It was number one on Netflix for weeks and weeks.

    That’s probably fair. I generally ignore the Netflix top 10 as it rarely includes things that are my steez.

    But I genuinely saw no mention of it on reddit or Twitter either. And I am on those fuckers all the time.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204921628

    (Accidentally put this in the Comedy thread so I’m just going to copy paste it here.)

    I think Maid will be this year’s Godless. Both missed PGA and performed below expectations at Critics Choice. (Both also got only one SAG nod, but also come on, how many of us were REALLY expecting MacDowell to get in?) However, by virtue of being Netflix’s only super viable contender to push other than Garner, I think it’ll almost definitely get more than Series/Qualley/Writing and blow up on nomination morning like Godless did. The power of a Netflix campaign can never ever be denied, and it’s looking like it’ll be the service’s only real push in most categories, so you can bet they’ll pull out all the stops for it. It’s not true crime, which I’m considering as a real booster for any show in this genre onslaught. I think it’s also been forgotten how massive of a hit it was. It’s not as meme-able as The Queen’s Gambit for obvious reasons, but it supposedly beat that viewership. That means a LOT. And it was getting those viewers at a time when there wasn’t a new limited series dropping every single week, so it’ll stick out in voters’ minds from that time. And like others have said, it’s one of the few contenders here that was beloved by critics and audiences alike.

    After TFL and AoaS floppage, I think Qualley is very solidly ahead to win. At least one of MacDowell and/or Rose is happening. Even Thomas Brodie-Sangster’s nomination tells me Robinson will likely be happening. It won’t overperform like crazy, but I don’t think it should be underestimated.

    FYC: Pamela Adlon (Better Things) Rose Byrne (Physical) Danielle Deadwyler (Station Eleven) Elle Fanning (The Great) Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) Hamish Linklater (Midnight Mass) Margaret Qualley (Maid) Renee Rapp (The Sex Lives of College Girls) Sophie Thatcher (Yellowjackets) Heléne Yorke (The Other Two)

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    probablyROB
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    #1204921671

    I have Qualley in my #1 spot right now but I don’t feel very good about it. Have a feeling Chastain, Foy, or even Zellweger will end up winning assuming they get nominated.

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    estrelas
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    #1204921696

    I have Qualley in my #1 spot right now but I don’t feel very good about it. Have a feeling Chastain, Foy, or even Zellweger will end up winning assuming they get nominated.

    Zellweger is not winning for a critically and audience panned show.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204921708

    But I genuinely saw no mention of it on reddit or Twitter either. And I am on those fuckers all the time.

    I mean 90% of it’s viewers are probably women so it’s not really Reddit’s vibe.

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    Turd Ferguson
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    #1204921847

    I think that just speaks to a personal bubble.

    It was number one on Netflix for weeks and weeks.

    It may speak more to how often people actually talk with each other about Netflix shows they binging in a weekend.

    Big fan of Better Call Saul, Sex Education, Barry, BoJack Horseman, and, especially, Survivor

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    #1204921859
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    probablyROB
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    #1204921868

    I mean 90% of it’s viewers are probably women so it’s not really Reddit’s vibe.

    The gender split on reddit isn’t that severe though. It’s more like 64/36. I wouldn’t be so dismissive of reddit as being purely male(anecdotally I feel like I interact with women just as much as men). It’s not like it’s 4chan like some people want to believe. Twitter is also closer to a 57/43 split.

    I can’t find any data but I would be shocked if the TV academy’s demographics were all that dissimilar to that too. Seems the DGA and WGA heavily favor men as well. So, while reddit is more male heavy it’s not negligible for shows geared towards women entirely in terms of picking up chatter. There are plenty of shows that seem geared towards women that get more traction.

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    #1204921872
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    probablyROB
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    #1204921874

    It may speak more to how often people actually talk with each other about Netflix shows they binging in a weekend.

    I have a few friends that I always talk to about TV and one of them in particular didn’t ever mention Bridgerton until this season. Specifically because her friends that made her watch it and read the book wanted to bitch about how bad this season was.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204921877

    Do only women watch Bridgerton?

    I have no idea but Kat_Ebbs seems to think that’s who primarily watches it.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204921885

    Zellweger is not winning for a critically and audience panned show.

    I haven’t heard much. I just know the Dateline series it is based on was very popular for a period so thought that might be enough to get people behind her.

    This may seem to go against my claim that true crime/doc/podcast adaptations are oversaturated and not good but I don’t believe any of those things are untrue about Pam. Much like Colin Firth likely being nominated I feel the same about Zellweger. I think both will miss out on series. Firth will benefit more from being on HBO obviously.

    The documentary and podcast communities I am a part of were far more invested in the Pam story than the Staircase or the Elizabeth Holmes docs. That’s a pretty narrow view. I suspect all of them are not good because I’ve yet to really see one that is.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204921917

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