Home Forums Television Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 12)

Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 12)

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    Manav
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    #1204959657

    If there’s a show that can be considered the “Mare” of this year it’s The Staircase, not Under the Banner of Heaven. And Colin Firth could pull off a Kate Winslet this year as well.

    Gosh, the perks of being an Oscar winning Brit who has starred in a Jane Austen Adaptation.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204959662

    Has HBO been pushing Survivor?

    Somewhat in an awards sense, but I don’t get the impression they’ve pushed it commercially at all? (whereas they did with The Fallout).

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    wolfali
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    #1204959666

    The thing is that the gargantuan pre hype for UTBOH is somewhat masking over the fact that it has not been able to distinguish itself from the other late releases that just came and went.

    Deeply perplexed by the constant painting of Under the Banner of Heaven here as some sort of buzzless flop when it has been performing better than most of the limited series of this Spring on almost every metric.

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    a spoonful of sugar
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    #1204959670

    The consensus for Lead Actress is basically Qualley versus Seyfried, right?

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    Manav
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    #1204959675

    The consensus for Lead Actress is basically Qualley versus Seyfried, right?

    Yeah unless any other actress’ show overperforms with the acting branch or unless Chastain’s individual momentum is too big.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    wolfali
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    #1204959679

    The consensus for Lead Actress is basically Qualley versus Seyfried, right?

    I can see Collette emerging as a dark horse if The Staircase explodes. Both her and the show seem to have a lot of raw hype right now.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204959681

    Deeply perplexed by the constant painting of Under the Banner of Heaven here as some sort of buzzless flop when it has actually been performing much better on pretty much every online metric compared to most of the limited series of this Spring.

    We aren’t saying it’s a buzzless flop, we’re saying it hasn’t exploded per some of the critics’ expectations. Most of this Spring has been deflated and buzz has been very split.

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    wolfali
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    #1204959687

    We aren’t saying it’s a buzzless flop, we’re saying it hasn’t exploded per some of the critics’ expectations. Most of this Spring has been deflated and buzz has been very split.

    I agree with this but the user’s post I quoted literally said “it has not been able to distinguish itself from the other late releases that just came and went” which almost feels like a falsehood when it has had a much stronger performance online than most of the limited series contenders of the Spring (sans The Staircase of course) including stuff like The Dropout during their runs.

    It’s not the big Mare-esque contender that it was hyped up to be on these forums before it was released but it’s been generating a lot more coverage in the industry trades than most of its Spring competitors and its registered votes on user rating sites like IMDB and TVTime are already higher than even some of the winter contenders at this stage of their releases as opposed to a show airing contemporaneously like Gaslit or The First Lady that have abysmal metrics.

    It’s probably a 5th at best in series but with this online engagement, the show having an established industry pedigree and being the Spring series of a cable network (FX) who have gotten a limited series nominated all but once in the past decade, I’m somewhat surprised by there being chatter about it missing a category like actor for performers in projects with much less overall heat.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204959695

    Not that Banner is buzzless, but it dropped to 13 on IMDB this week and isn’t in the top 10 Hulu streamed shows. So it doesn’t have a ton of eyeballs on it. I think for me the concern is it having that middling reception in a flood of spring shows, all also getting a pretty tempered response outside of the Staircase, it’s easy to see them drowning each other out. I agree Banner and Garfield aren’t completely safe for nominations. I do think he’ll be nominated, but I at least think Garfield in the top 2 currently in the prediction center is not accurate and, like Kat_Ebbs said, a hangover of pre-release expectations…which has been happening a lot this season.

    The acting races feel pretty firmly Qualley v. Seyfried and Keaton v. Firth to me. I could see a couple upset potentials in actress but not so much in actor.

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    Manav
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    #1204959711

    Not that Banner is buzzless, but it dropped to 13 on IMDB this week and isn’t in the top 10 Hulu streamed shows. So it doesn’t have a ton of eyeballs on it. I think for me the concern is it having that middling reception in a flood of spring shows, all also getting a pretty tempered response outside of the Staircase, it’s easy to see them drowning each other out. I agree Banner and Garfield aren’t completely safe for nominations. I do think he’ll be nominated, but I at least think Garfield in the top 2 currently in the prediction center is not accurate and, like Kat_Ebbs said, a hangover of pre-release expectations…which has been happening a lot this season.

    The acting races feel pretty firmly Qualley v. Seyfried and Keaton v. Firth to me. I could see a couple upset potentials in actress but not so much in actor.

    💯
    I couldn’t agree more with this.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    wolfali
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    #1204959733

    The acting races feel pretty firmly Qualley v. Seyfried and Keaton v. Firth to me. I could see a couple upset potentials in actress but not so much in actor.

    I agree that it isn’t generating anywhere strong enough buzz or passion for it to be win competitive for anything major but with regards to it being 13th on IMDBPro it’s worth mentioning that that’s a lot higher than half of these shows, even some that are in the predictions centre top 6 right now. The Dropout peaked at 17th on IMDB, Dopesick at 16th, Station Eleven at 28th. That’s not to say that its going to be bigger contenders than those shows (far from it) but the fact that a show that isn’t the most internet or commercially friendly is charting higher than other series in its respective field on online search sites tells me that a significant enough amount of people seem to be watching it for it to not just be people who are say, rabid fans of one of the actors involved.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204959747

    Not necessarily a limited thing, but I’ll be honest I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of the Prime or Paramount+ shows surprise that no one’s predicting.

    I was at a barbecue with relatives this week and it was jarring how different the streaming landscape is for people even ten years older than me.

    I’ve never really felt that divide on new releases before. I feel like their marketing must be really targeted because I’m not seeing it.

    In particular, my parents who are in their 60s felt quite energised I think – I think they appreciated that there was content being made with bigger stars of their generation targeting them that wasn’t just the 95th season of NCIS.

    I really enjoy this board but I get the distinct feeling, generally, that there aren’t a lot of active posters over 40, maybe 45  (and I can’t really talk, cos I’m still a wee bit under 40) and it has to skew our judgement a bit.

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    Couverture
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    #1204959762

    The Staircase’s audience reception hasn’t been particularly great for the type of show it is so Keaton looks likely to just complete his sweep with the Emmys imo.

    As for Under the Banner of Heaven, I genuinely think it’ll do fine? Whether it be prehype or the actual content of the show, I think it has managed to stand out from the other shows of this spring. Most others are forgotten after an episode or two. It was trending the previous week on twitter and a peak of 5 and then 13th position on imdb for this moody, slow religious drama is anything but great. Most shows have slight drops in the middle of their runs so I don’t see this as a thing to worry about unless it just keeps going on. There is a positive appraisal for the show itself on some level from those who watch it, whether it be for its ambition, its execution or both (which was even reflected in the few middling critic reviews) that makes it stick in your mind. Even if you don’t love it, it’s not an instantly forgettable show like the vast majority of others and you come out with some level of appreciation for it. And in a year like this, even a more detached response like that could most likely be enough. LA Times recently listed it as one of the major contenders and I think that reflects how the relevant people view or will view its position in the race as they write about the Emmys or vote for them. In a way, perception plays a significant part in the end and an important prestige FX drama from an Oscar winner starring the hottest actor in the market right now might just be the perfect example to illustrate that.

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    sammumba
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    #1204959778

    the hottest actor in the market right now

    i like garfield and i think he’s safe for the nomination, but he isn’t even the hottest actor playing a spider-man in the market.

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    probablyROB
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    #1204959796

    Copying my post from the previous thread:

    I don’t know why this isn’t being entertained more but I personally think Andrew Garfield and the show Under The Banner Of Heaven is going to miss. Not a very accessible show, slow pace, little buzz, poor response from the Mormon community, low ratings, 70s audiences score, low 70s Metacritic. The only thing that is in their favour is Garfield’s individual momentum.

    Or

    You can rephrase my argument as : “I don’t understand the confidence in Under The Banner Of Heaven and Garfield being safe bets.”

    From my perspective, it gets in on merit alone. But it’s also not bombing like The First Lady or anything either. It’s remained part of the zeitgeist while airing. Not a huge part of it but it exists. And Garfield is having a great year that will help him on an unlimited ballot.

    Let’s not pretend no one cares about Under a Banner. Very few seem to care a ton now but it’s catching some eyes and possibly more than what is visible on the surface.

    Safe bet is probably not the best way to describe so many people predicting Garfield and the series. The series is actually good. Nothing good is ever safe. They usually need the fire power this show actually has going for it peripherally. Maybe some people are predicting him lazily but no one believes he is a sure thing for a reason outside of the series.

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