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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 12)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204988805

    I’ll never watch this show but look out for Viola Davis Yeah, i know she was somehow panned, but we are looking at a full White lineup so far and Viola is a big name that could prevent that. I’m just saying. The same goes to Samuel L Jackson in the Actor category.

    It depends on how binary they’re being on black vs white versus broader diversity, Isaac is Latino and extremely competitive here. But I agree Jackson isn’t an unreasonable pick, the performance seems underseen but well liked. The combo of Showtime + having three leads + underseen + poor user scores + poor critical response makes me think they’ll blank Davis here – it’s not like she got in for every season of HTGAWM – but I can also see why people would predict her.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204988807

    The Survivor may be on HBO but it’s got a lukewarm critical reception and Foster has no awards track record.

    Also worth pointing out that since the new voting changes in 2015 & 2017, there’s only been six people to make Lead Acting for regular TV Movies (no musicals or pre-existing franchises – Derek, Sherlock, Luther & Black Mirror) and six of those were win competitive when nominations were announced, most of them right up until their category was announced on Emmy night.

    • David Oyelowo (Nightingale)
    • Queen Latifah (Bessie)
    • Bryan Cranston (All the Way)
    • Kerry Washington (Confirmation)
    • Robert de Niro (Wizard of Lies)
    • Laura Dern (The Tale)
    • Hugh Jackman (Bad Education)

    Foster isn’t win competitive right now and bigger names with similarly juicy roles have all missed (Dinklage, Hopkins, B. Jordan, Pacino, Paul, Winfrey).

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204988818

    Am I the only one predicting Liev Schreiber? He has 3 nominations for the role and multiple nominations in the narrator category so he is a name they somewhat like. They might default to him considering the state of the category. There’s also a precedence for his nomination with Tituss Burgess.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204988822

    The Survivor may be on HBO but it’s got a lukewarm critical reception and Foster has no awards track record,

    Yep. Outside of the fact that it’s a transformational and he’s great in it (let me be clear: I’m not saying the performance isn’t worthy) I’m not sure where people are deciding he’s an awards dynamo outside of pre-hype. In twenty years he’s had one Indie Spirit win, and it’s worth pointing out in terms of stage work he’s been blanked when his co-stars have been nominated.

    2400 IMDB votes and 1400 on Letterboxd for a movie that debuted last year at a major film festival that has been out for a while would also suggest it’s underseen (for comparison, The Fallout, also on HBO, is at 12K / 70000k). Clearly we’re talking about two disparate demos here (i.e school shooting with a teen actress versus someone playing an Auschwitz survivor). I don’t think Foster’s an impossibility (and he’d be a worthy nominee) but I do think he’s a little over-estimated in this race.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204988847

    Is The Offer being underestimated? It is about a key moment in the entertainment industry (we know how much it loves to reward itself) and apparently Pacino adores it

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204988865

    Is The Offer being underestimated? It is about a key moment in the entertainment industry (we know how much it loves to reward itself) and apparently Pacino adores it

     

    It has wildly disparate critic and user scores (49 on Metacritic vs 8.7 on IMDB), however, that’s an increasing trend we’re seeing (including Oscars), so it’s a hard one to judge. I’ve not seen it but I have heard from almost everyone that Goode is terrific. 

    I think one of the big questions in this race is whether we’re understanding Paramount+ (and to a lesser extent, Paramount/Viacom CBS – Ghosts, Yellowstone). They do really seem to have a mission statement to make solid non- police procedural content for audiences that are a bit older than the demo of this board (or, say, Twitter).

    I do feel like they’ve become far more of a significant player in the last year, but how much so, I don’t know. They do feel more of a presence than Peacock, though.

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    JV
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    #1204988874

    Am I the only one predicting Liev Schreiber? He has 3 nominations for the role and multiple nominations in the narrator category so he is a name they somewhat like. They might default to him considering the state of the category. There’s also a precedence for his nomination with Tituss Burgess.

    I think he could happen considering the category is barren, but outside of Jackman and DeNiro I don’t think I’ve seen anyone in the last 6-7 years in this category getting nominated for a TV Movie.

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    wolfali
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    #1204988890

    Liev Schreiber is tempting purely because, like Titus Burgess, I don’t think voters will even need to have seen the movie finales of their shows to nominate them. They could just see their names having watched their shows relatively recently and just automatically check them off.

    That being said I guess Schreiber is in a slightly weaker position with Ray Donovan being a show voters moved on from a while ago (Schreiber was last nominated in 2017 whilst Burgess comparatively was nominated for the penultimate season of Kimmy Schmidt, which aired two years before the interactive special).

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204988903

    Liev Schreiber is tempting purely because, like Titus Burgess, I don’t think voters will even need to have seen the movie finales of their shows to nominate them. They could just see their names having watched their shows relatively recently and just automatically check them off.

    I’d forgotten about Titus. That’s a good call. Liev has gotten in under this system (in 2017, the first year), so it’s possible, and there’s probably a lower level of visibility needed in the limited category as opposed to drama, especially this year. Plus outside of something new and buzzy like Yellowjackets, Showtime stuff tends to be watched but not necessarily talked about (i.e William H Macy showing back up for Season 900 of Shameless).

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    Manav
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    #1204988917

    (i.e William H Macy showing back up for Season 900 of Shameless).

    Grey’s Anatomy and The Simpsons are chuckling.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204988922

    Grey’s Anatomy and The Simpsons are chuckling.

    lol I was too lazy to google. I just checked. Season 11, which would be close to some kind of “how many years in to your run on  a show can you get nominated” record (Kenan Thompson has him beat for SNL, though).

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204988930

    Mariska Hargitay final nom for SVU came in it’s 12th season.

    Cast members from Cheers and Frasier got nominated (and won) for their final seasons (both 11th) in 1993 & 2004, respectively.

    Laurie Metcalf was technically nominated for Roseanne’s 10th season in 2018, Kate McKinnon could tie that with a nomination for her 10th on SNL this year.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204988936

    Laurie Metcalf was technically nominated for Roseanne’s 10th season in 2018, Kate McKinnon could tie that with a nomination for her 10th on SNL this year.

    I checked for Kenan – he finally got in for his 16th season (I can’t think if anyone got in any later than that)

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    Manav
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    #1204988947

    -Fred Willard for S11 of Modern Family.
    -Alan Alda, Harry Morgan and Loretta Swit for S11 of M*A*S*H
    -Ernest Borgnine for S15 of ER

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    Manav
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    #1204988949

    Speaking of this, what is the longest number of seasons from the first season has an actress been nominated in supporting?

    Like how long from S1 (S1-S4 or S1-S9).
    Allison Janney comes to mind for getting nominated for the first three years of Mom in supporting and then next two in Lead (so technically 5 seasons). Anna Chulumsky has 6 (for S2-S7) but wasn’t nominated for S1, so it doesn’t count.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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