Home Forums Television Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 13)

Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 13)

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    wolfali
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    #1205001773

    It makes me so pissed that the terrific performance by Danielle Deadwyler on Station Eleven is likely gonna miss (let’s face it, she needs a miracle to happen) while most of the actresses from The White Lotus, who are only good/decent, are getting over her instead, including the frontrunner.

    This is precisely why we need the Television Academy to switch back to the restricted ballot. I yearn for the days when we could get an inspired passion pick like Maura Tierney or Constance Zimmer nominated just for being excellent on their shows.

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    Heptapod
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    #1205001787

    Maybe I’ll be eating crow in a couple months, but barring any insane snubs, the winners feel ridiculously easy to predict. I honestly think the only category where there’ll be real competition is Actress and maybe Writing, but even then Qualley over Seyfried and The White Lotus over Maid feel like the obvious outcomes, at least to me.

    The White Lotus (Series, Writing, Directing)
    Qualley
    Keaton
    Bartlett
    Coolidge

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    #1205001790
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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205001850

    I think we cannot discuss wins before seeing the nominations, especially in this category where the saturations of new shows feels abismal, but a couple of those might break in and catch us by surprise…

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    ricardo505
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    #1205001948

    I’m not from the US, so I don’t know: did voters really watch Dopesick? It looks a little bit like Russell Crowe few years ago.

    Another point that I bring here: IMO it seems that voters watched The White Lotus, Maid and The Staircase. In this scenario, is there any possibility of TWL getting four supporting actress nominations (Coolidge, Dadario, Britton and Rothwell)?

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    wolfali
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    #1205001956

    I’m not from the US, so I don’t know: did voters really watch Dopesick? It looks a little bit like Russell Crowe few years ago.

    Russell Crowe’s win was for a mixed received Showtime series from an awards body with zero industry overlap though. He also didn’t attend or give a speech for his show either which probably didn’t help him as much in visibility as we thought it would with the Globe win alone at the time.

    I do understand your sentiment though in the sense that it doesn’t really feel like an instant conversation starter like any of the three shows you’ve mentioned (and this is why whilst I think Keaton is winning I’m more cautious about the series win chatter) but I think even though the show hadn’t really peaked in visibility during the winter awards season it almost certainly has now with all the Spring series battling for breathing space (and in some cases being complete car crashes) and it having the advantage of time, a derby sweeping central performance and doing fairly well on the critical (it got 2 TCA noms) and industry (it got 2 DGA nods and a PGA nod) circuit.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205001964

    I’m not from the US, so I don’t know: did voters really watch Dopesick? It looks a little bit like Russell Crowe few years ago.

    I think so. One of the things though if you look at any kind of online tracking with Dopesick (Wiki, IMDB) that you can see is it was kind of a slow burn that never really had a peak moment, which I think can give that impression of it being underwhelming (whereas something like Pam and Tommy had a lot of pre-hype and then fell off a cliff a few eps in.

    I actually think The Staircase might have done better internationally than in the US (particularly in the UK and Australia).

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205002075

    Limited contenders by quality according to fans:

    1. 1883 – 8.8
    2. The Offer – 8.7
    3. Dopesick 8.6
    4. Maid – 8.4
    5. Scenes from a Marriage – 8.0

    Why only 5 shows have a decent score? The obvious question is are we mad to not predict 1883 and The Offer for everything? Especially 1883 since it also has a very high viewership? Is this a proof that the win is between Dopesick and Maid? Why people still undervalue Scenes from a Marriage when is fifth here and number 12 n the popularity list?

    6. The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey – 7.8
    7. Midnight Mass – 7.7
    8. The White Lotus – 7.6
    9. Station Eleven – 7.6
    10. We Own This City – 7.6
    11. Dr. Death – 7.6
    12. The Dropout – 7.5
    13. Love Life – 7.5
    14. Under the Banner of Heaven – 7.5
    15. Moon Knight – 7.4
    16. Pam & Tommy – 7.3
    17. WeCrashed – 7.3
    18. The Staircase – 7.2
    19. Candy – 7.2
    20. Super Pumped – 7.2
    21. The Shrink Next Door – 7.1
    22. The Thing About Pam – 7.1
    23. Gaslit – 7.1
    24. Anatomy of a Scandal – 7.0
    25. Landscapers – 7.0
    26. A Very British Scandal – 7.0
    27. Women of the Movement – 6.9
    28. Inventing Anna – 6.8
    29. Conversations with Friends – 6.7
    30. The First Lady – 6.6
    31. The Girl from Plainville – 6.4
    32. The Essex Serpent – 6.4
    33. The Woman in the House – 6.3

    Are Inventing Anna, The Girl from Plainville and The Essex Serpent really that horrible (have not seen them)? I did saw The First Lady and 6.6 is pretty generous for that trash. Davis’s and Anderson’s tics and tendencies to overact finally catch up to them…

    Limited contenders by popularity:

    1. Moon Knight – 182K
    2. Midnight Mass – 105K
    3. Maid – 77K
    4. Inventing Anna – 59
    5. The White Lotus – 59K
    6. 1883 – 55K
    7. Dopesick 49K
    8. The Woman in the House – 42K
    9. Pam & Tommy – 29K
    10. Anatomy of a Scandal – 23K
    11. Station Eleven – 23K
    12. Scenes from a Marriage – 20K

    Why only 12 shows have a decent viewership? Why people watch every trash show that Netflix puts to them? Was Kristen Bell on drugs when she agreed to do The Woman in the House which is the show with the worst score out of 33 shows? Why one of the best living actresses Michelle Dockery keeps working with Netflix? Why people keep pretending that no one saw Station Eleven, Scenes from a Marriage and, especially, Pam & Tommy? How Pam & Tommy destroyed Dropout and Staircase in viewership? Can Midnight Mass surprise?

    13. The Dropout – 17K
    14. The Staircase – 15K
    15. Love Life – 14K
    16. Landscapers – 14K
    17. We Own This City – 14K
    18. The Offer – 12K
    19. Dr. Death – 12K
    20. The Shrink Next Door – 11K
    21. WeCrashed – 11K
    22. Under the Banner of Heaven – 10K
    23. Candy – 8.3K
    24. The Thing About Pam – 6.4K
    25. A Very British Scandal – 5.0K
    26. The Girl from Plainville – 4.5K
    27. Super Pumped – 4.5K
    28. Conversations with Friends – 3.8
    29. The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey – 3.6K
    30. Gaslit – 3.5K
    31. The Essex Serpent – 3.5
    32. The First Lady – 3.3K
    33. Women of the Movement – 1.3K

    How Julia Roberts, Claire Danes, Elle Fanning, Viola Davis, Michelle Pfeiffer and Gillian Anderson became the Queens of Flops?

    The FLOPS of the century:
    1. Lisey’s Story – 5.8/5.4K (How Julianne Moore, Clive Owen, Pablo Larraín and Apple TV+ were able to produce this disaster? Has Julianne Moore lost her capabilities to choose projects completely, has she fallen over her head or something?).
    2. DMZ – 5.3/3K (poor Rosario Dawson, the proof that Ava DuVernay depends on its writers, HBO MAX please do NOT become Netflix).
    3. Angelyne 5.7/814 votes :O (poor Emmy Rossum and poor Peacock, I guess all the votes came from her ex colleagues from Shameless, they sure celebrated her flop).

    Special mentions:
    American Crime Story – 8.4 with 94K
    American Horror Story – 8.0 with 309K

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002079

    In terms of most of your points, I think one of the things we have to keep in mind this year is the effects of the pandemic – extra production costs, yes, but also the fact a lot of these deals were made probably mid-pandemic as a “well, this should be…….fine” or “eh, the script is average but we got a good cast/star” or “this doesn’t require too many people and we can make it cheap” or actors going “well the movie market is depressed so how about some TV maybe I can work towards an EGOT”. I think that’s why in the end we got…….well……….a year with a LOT of average series (too many, to be honest).

     

     

     

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    Manav
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    #1205002159

    Limited contenders by quality according to fans:

    While I don’t agree with some of the language, I do find this very enlightening and a nice fact checker for a lot of people (including me) on this forum.

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1205002165

    There are two big fat caveats to any of those viewership figures which scientifically nullify any meaning you might interpret. (1) these are self-reported and (2) they skew to the demographic that bothers to report/log its viewership online.

    I don’t take much meaning from isolated figures like these which would be dismissed from a year 1 stats class.

    In any case, without a last minute Mare of Easttown, it’s going to be Dopesick, there’s no need to overthink it.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002187

    I don’t take much meaning from isolated figures like these which would be dismissed from a year 1 stats class.

    I think most people are entirely aware data is imperfect and wouldn’t pass any degree of rigor but at the end of the day it’s awards predicting and guess work.

     

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    Atypical
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    #1205002215

    IMDb voters aren’t television Academy members. That’s a false equivalency. I wish there was a way to track voters’ viewing credits during voting, but that’ll never happen. Then we’d clearly know what they’re watching and will most likely vote for.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002222

    Maybe I’ll be eating crow in a couple months, but barring any insane snubs, the winners feel ridiculously easy to predict. I honestly think the only category where there’ll be real competition is Actress and maybe Writing, but even then Qualley over Seyfried and The White Lotus over Maid feel like the obvious outcomes, at least to me.

    The White Lotus (Series, Writing, Directing)
    Qualley
    Keaton
    Bartlett
    Coolidge

    I think predicting such a huge sweep for The White Lotus is ill-advised. Mike White has never even been nominated for an Emmy despite having critically acclaimed HBO show previously. And while I agree the visibility of The White Lotus and general popularity of it is much bigger than Enlightened ever was the reception to The White Lotus was still pretty mixed. Predicting it to win in both writing and directing is pretty bold. Especially if Station Eleven sneaks into either category.

    That isn’t to say I don’t think it can win that much but I definitely don’t think its as easy as you’re claiming.

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