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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 13)

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002225

    (whereas something like Pam and Tommy had a lot of pre-hype and then fell off a cliff a few eps in.

    I’m convinced the Pam & Tommy hype was strictly around Lily James and how much she actually looked like Pamela Anderson in the series. Which isn’t terribly substantive. I would not be at all shocked if the series was completely snubbed ATL.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002227

    In terms of most of your points, I think one of the things we have to keep in mind this year is the effects of the pandemic – extra production costs, yes, but also the fact a lot of these deals were made probably mid-pandemic as a “well, this should be…….fine” or “eh, the script is average but we got a good cast/star” or “this doesn’t require too many people and we can make it cheap” or actors going “well the movie market is depressed so how about some TV maybe I can work towards an EGOT”. I think that’s why in the end we got…….well……….a year with a LOT of average series (too many, to be honest).

    While this may be true for Limited Series the same definitely cannot be said for Drama or Comedy. I feel like this has been the strongest Emmy cycle for both categories in a decade and maybe even longer(for Comedy in particular).

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002234

    While this may be true for Limited Series the same definitely cannot be said for Drama or Comedy. I feel like this has been the strongest Emmy cycle for both categories in a decade and maybe even longer(for Comedy in particular).

    I mean it specifically with limited series given the short term nature of the decisions (i.e performers who would be unlikely to sign on for ongoing series)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002251

    The only thing that feels like a fait accompli to me is Keaton.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002258

    The only thing that feels like a fait accompli to me is Keaton.

    I actually think that if Ben Foster gets the nomination he will win. Getting the nomination seems like the biggest hurdle.

    That said, I would not rule out Andrew Garfield. As you mentioned previously, Dopesick has a slow steady swell making it seem like it may not have the viewership to win. But I feel like something similarly is happening with Under the Banner of Heaven as it seems to be slowly and steadily gaining more and more traction. Especially with the glut of Mormon Chruch exposé documentaries coming out right now.

    /r/television has now had multiple Under the Banner of Heaven threads reach the the top of the page with decent discussion (200-300 comments) going on about the series but also what the series is about.

    Also, and similarly to Ben Foster, I think Jon Bernthal surprising with a nomination for We Own The City would be competitive. But him getting nominated seems even more difficult for him than for Foster but if he does get a nomination then watch out.

    Sentimental or personal favorite Hamish Patel has a great episode that would be win worthy as well.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002279

    I actually think that if Ben Foster gets the nomination he will win. Getting the nomination seems like the biggest hurdle.

    Good point – the thing then Foster has going for him is if he gets through, it is much easier to watch a TV movie than it is to watch ten hours of a series. And the performance is there.

     

     

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    wolfali
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    #1205002281

    Why people keep pretending that no one saw Station Eleven, Scenes from a Marriage and, especially, Pam & Tommy?

    These shows were disproportionately watched by people outside the US than they were by those in the US (although I agree with you that that the notion that Station Eleven hasn’t been seen by anyone is bizarre with how well it’s performed commercially for HBO Max and its registered American IMDB votes being higher than most of the contenders from this cycle and even some from last year’s). It’s a <i>Sin</i> (a British HBO co-production which received zero Emmy nominations) has 30k registered votes for it on IMDB whilst I May Destroy You (which won 2 Emmys) has 21k registered votes for it. However I May Destroy You has more registered votes for it in the US (2.1k vs Sin’s 1.7k) whilst It’s a Sin has more from outside the US (11.2k vs 7.4k).

    Here’s how each of the shows you mentioned have performed in terms of proportion of American votes on IMDB in retrospect to international ones:

    US

    1. Midnight Mass – 15.1k votes
    2. Moon Knight – 14.3k votes
    3. 1883 – 11k votes
    4. The White Lotus – 9.2k votes
    5. Maid – 8.7k votes
    6. Inventing Anna – 8.3k votes
    7. Dopesick – 7.1k votes
    8. The Woman in the House – 5.9k votes
    9. Station Eleven – 4.8k votes
    10. Pam and Tommy – 4.3k votes

    11. The Dropout – 3.1k votes
    12. Under the Banner of Heaven – 2.6k votes
    13. The Offer – 2.5k votes
    14. The Staircase – 2.4k votes
    15. Candy – 2.3k votes
    16. The Shrink Next Door – 2.3k votes
    17. We Own This City – 2.2k votes
    18. Anatomy of a Scandal – 2.1k votes
    19. Scenes From a Marriage – 2.1k votes
    20. Dr. Death – 2k votes

    21. The Thing About Pam – 1.8k votes
    22. Landscapers – 1.6k votes
    23. WeCrashed – 1.5k votes
    24. The Girl From Plainville – 1.1k votes
    25. Super Pumped – 924 votes
    26. The First Lady – 833 votes
    27. Gaslit – 809 votes
    28. The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey – 671 votes
    29. A Very British Scandal – 482 votes
    30. The Essex Serpent – 456 votes

    31. Women of the Movement – 394 votes
    32. Conversations with Friends – 345 votes

    International

    1. Moon Knight – 37.4k votes
    2. Midnight Mass – 28.9k votes
    3. Maid – 21.1k votes
    4. The White Lotus – 16.6k votes
    5. Inventing Anna – 14.6k votes
    6. Dopesick – 13.2k votes
    7. The Woman in the House – 10.8k votes
    8. 1883 – 9.3k votes
    9. Pam and Tommy – 8.1k votes
    10. Anatomy of a Scandal – 7.4k votes

    11. Scenes From a Marriage – 6.6k votes
    12. Station Eleven – 5.2k votes
    13. Landscapers – 4.8k votes
    14. The Dropout – 4.3k votes
    15. The Staircase – 3.9k votes
    16. We Own This City – 3.7k votes
    17. Dr. Death – 3.3k votes
    18. WeCrashed – 3.1k votes
    19. The Shrink Next Door – 2.7k votes
    20. The Offer – 2.4k votes

    21. A Very British Scandal – 1.9k votes
    22. Under the Banner of Heaven – 1.3k votes
    23. Conversations with Friends – 1.1k votes
    24. Super Pumped – 1.1k votes
    25. The Essex Serpent – 999 votes
    26. Candy – 941 votes
    27. The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey – 818 votes
    28. The Thing About Pam – 784 votes
    29. Gaslit – 751 votes
    30. The Girl From Plainville – 723 votes

    31. The First Lady – 621 votes
    32. Women of the Movement – 164 votes

    The fact that Television Academy members don’t simply vote for what the biggest shows online are (case in point The Underground Railroad just got in over a Nicole Kidman HBO watercooler) or that IMDB is not representative of older voters who aren’t actively surfing or procrastinating on the internet aside, IMDB votes are misleading if you look at the numbers without context. Anatomy of a Scandal and Inventing Anna were both massive Netflix hits with almost the exact same audience and critical reception yet only one of them made a dent in the US. 3x times as many people outside the US registered votes for Scenes From a Marriage on IMDB compared to those in the US whilst The Dropout and Station Eleven not only have a higher amount of registered American votes on there than Scenes From a Marriage but they also are level with their non American votes.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1205002287

    Limited contenders by quality according to fans:
    1. 1883 – 8.8
    2. The Offer – 8.7
    3. Dopesick 8.6
    4. Maid – 8.4
    5. Scenes from a Marriage – 8.0

    Limited contenders by popularity:
    1. Moon Knight – 182K
    2. Midnight Mass – 105K
    3. Maid – 77K
    4. Inventing Anna – 59
    5. The White Lotus – 59K

    Maid being the only show be to top 5 on both is interesting.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002292

    Inventing Anna v. Anatomy of a Scandal is pretty easily explained away though. One takes place in America mainly and is filled with American actors and the other takes place in the UK with UK actors if I’m not mistaken.

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    Atypical
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    #1205002294

    Ben Foster was Oscar-worthy in “The Survivor.” That level of work merits serious awards consideration, and it’s clear when you actually watch the performance. The hurdle will be the Emmy nomination. After that, all bets are off.

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    wolfali
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    #1205002300

    Inventing Anna v. Anatomy of a Scandal is pretty easily explained away though. One takes place in America mainly and is filled with American actors and the other takes place in the UK with UK actors if I’m not mistaken.

    Oh of course and that’s precisely my point. Just because a show has a high IMDB vote count it doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily popular in the US or with Emmy voters (who are largely American). Pam and Tommy has a high vote count compared to other limited series (and it has done decently for itself in the US) but there are almost twice as many people voting for it outside of the US compared to those in the US which isn’t shocking in the scheme of things considering Lily James is quite well known internationally (and is a household name in the UK) but it does make its IMDB vote count misleading.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002310

    Wasn’t Baywatch also a huge hit internationally as well? I wonder if that played any role at all.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002312

    Ben Foster was Oscar-worthy in “The Survivor.” That level of work merits serious awards consideration, and it’s clear when you actually watch the performance. The hurdle will be the Emmy nomination. After that, all bets are off.

    Agree 100%.

    I feel a lot more confident in him getting nominated though because I do believe The Survivor is also the type of movie that voters will gravitate towards. But I won’t lie that the speculation here has me doubting that instinct.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002332

    Wasn’t Baywatch also a huge hit internationally as well? I wonder if that played any role at all.

    Correct. It used to be one of those shows that sold really well internationally if I recall.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1205002348

    Correct. It used to be one of those shows that sold really well internationally if I recall.

    Pamela Anderson is also quite established as a personality internationally (she’s for example appeared in numerous reality and competition shows in Europe and Australia).

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