Home Forums Television Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 13)

Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 13)

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1205002369

    Not to mention David Hasselhoff is literally in history textbooks here in Europe for performing during the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1205002371

    What? Is Baywatch a miniseries or?

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002378

    Pam & Tommy takes place when Pam was starring on Baywatch (for part of it, I didn’t watch)

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1205002469

    I think most people are entirely aware data is imperfect and wouldn’t pass any degree of rigor but at the end of the day it’s awards predicting and guess work.

    Sure, but people spend all much time compiling these pointless figures and reading meaning into the meaningless, it’s just like … why?

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1205002471

    Oh of course and that’s precisely my point. Just because a show has a high IMDB vote count it doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily popular in the US or with Emmy voters (who are largely American). Pam and Tommy has a high vote count compared to other limited series (and it has done decently for itself in the US) but there are almost twice as many people voting for it outside of the US compared to those in the US which isn’t shocking in the scheme of things considering Lily James is quite well known internationally (and is a household name in the UK) but it does make its IMDB vote count misleading.

    Or – and hear me out – men aged 20-40 are the ones self-reporting their viewership on websites and are also the ones watching Pamela Anderson swimsuit scenes.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002473

    Sure, but people spend all much time compiling these pointless figures and reading meaning into the meaningless, it’s just like … why?

    Why not? It’s awards and guesswork. Some people like looking at numbers and trends. Plus social media is increasingly just the algorithm feeding people stuff via confirmation bias and trades picking up what gets clicks. It doesn’t mean people on the board aren’t free to ignore and move on or base their decision on instinct or the buzz of the people they know.

    I might end up feeling like an idiot for not picking, say, Ben Foster, whose performance I really like, but  numbers also stopped me from going all in on Girls5Eva last year which proved to be a good decision. But that’s on me.  It’s not like the stakes are high if people misjudge some vague internet trends.

    .

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002475

    Or – and hear me out – men aged 20-40 are the ones self-reporting their viewership on websites

    Which we know and is visible? If we didn’t everyone would be predicting Moon Knight to sweep,  as it stands almost everyone has Isaac outside of their predictions.

     

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002500

    Or – and hear me out – men aged 20-40 are the ones self-reporting their viewership on websites and are also the ones watching Pamela Anderson swimsuit scenes.

    Not sure 20-40 is the range. Pam and Tommy was voted on more by women age 30+ than men and women combined under the age of 30.

    And that show, while it might be 75% male voting on IMDB that isn’t the case for every show. Inventing Anna, for example, was closer to 53/47. So, it’s not just men self-reporting their viewership on websites. And it’s a specious statement to keep making and treating it as fact. If you include non-binary genders men only make up like 30% of the voters on that show. Unless of course it’s just people not reporting their gender but there’s no way to know for sure. I have to believe a good portion are doing so intentionally.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002525

    And that show, while it might be 75% male voting on IMDB that isn’t the case for every show. Inventing Anna, for example, was closer to 53/47. So, it’s not just men self-reporting their viewership on websites. And it’s a specious statement to keep making and treating it as fact. If you include non-binary genders men only make up like 30% of the voters on that show. Unless of course it’s just people not reporting their gender but there’s no way to know for sure. I have to believe a good portion are doing so intentionally.

    Men do overreport on IMDB, specifically men 30-45 (and 40-50% of users are unregistered), and men tend to review bomb more, but IMDB is at least transparent about that fact, unlike RT or Metacritic.

    Bridgerton for instance, checks out with what we know: It is mostly watched by women and liked by women. The actual skew (31/69 here) has been reported by Nielsen as 24/76

    image

     

     

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002530

    Men do overreport on IMDB, specifically men 30-45 (and 40-50% of users are unregistered), and men tend to review bomb more, but IMDB is at least transparent about that fact, unlike RT or Metacritic.

    Bridgerton for instance, checks out with what we know: It is mostly watched by women and liked by women. The actual skew (31/69 here) has been reported by Nielsen as 24/76

    image

    Right, that was exactly where I got my data from. Feel like you ignored my entire point.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002541

    Right, that was exactly where I got my data from. Feel like you ignored my entire point.

    i actually re read what I wrote and yeah I am rambling I was largely agreeing with you! Apologies. Wasn’t meant to come across as antagonistic

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002549

    Nah, it’s fine. I just care more about my point landing than someone picking a fight. I just want to be fighting about the same thing lol

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002570

    Nah, it’s fine. I just care more about my point landing than someone picking a fight. I just want to be fighting about the same thing lol

    point taken!

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205002582

    ivostoyanov wrote:
    Why people keep pretending that no one saw Station Eleven, Scenes from a Marriage and, especially, Pam & Tommy?

    The fact that Television Academy members don’t simply vote for what the biggest shows online are (case in point The Underground Railroad just got in over a Nicole Kidman HBO watercooler) or that IMDB is not representative of older voters who aren’t actively surfing or procrastinating on the internet aside, IMDB votes are misleading if you look at the numbers without context. Anatomy of a Scandal and Inventing Anna were both massive Netflix hits with almost the exact same audience and critical reception yet only one of them made a dent in the US. 3x times as many people outside the US registered votes for Scenes From a Marriage on IMDB compared to those in the US whilst The Dropout and Station Eleven not only have a higher amount of registered American votes on there than Scenes From a Marriage but they also are level with their non American votes.

    Thank you for the detailed explanation, it was really interesting to read.

    However, I am not using IMDB like this precisely because is a subjective metric. I use it as a relative mirror of the Academy because is a very good summation of what a movie community likes and watches. And most of the times I was right in doing so.

    Also, shows that do not perform well on IMDB, but do perform well on the Emmys, are very rare and specific shows. They are usually shows about the industry (Mrs. America/7.8/12K and Fosse/Verdon/7.9/6K) or shows about difficult subject matters that are critical darlings (The Underground Railroad/7.3/7K and I May Destroy You/8.1/21K).

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205002587

    In terms of most of your points, I think one of the things we have to keep in mind this year is the effects of the pandemic – extra production costs, yes, but also the fact a lot of these deals were made probably mid-pandemic as a “well, this should be…….fine” or “eh, the script is average but we got a good cast/star” or “this doesn’t require too many people and we can make it cheap” or actors going “well the movie market is depressed so how about some TV maybe I can work towards an EGOT”. I think that’s why in the end we got…….well……….a year with a LOT of average series (too many, to be honest).

    Good point, yes, A year without passion for the line up, so this is why asked are we underestimating the two shows that do have passion – The Offer and 1883? Especially, when the latter also have the viewership.

    ivostoyanov wrote:
    Limited contenders by quality according to fans:
    1. 1883 – 8.8
    2. The Offer – 8.7
    3. Dopesick 8.6
    4. Maid – 8.4
    5. Scenes from a Marriage – 8.0

    Limited contenders by popularity:
    1. Moon Knight – 182K
    2. Midnight Mass – 105K
    3. Maid – 77K
    4. Inventing Anna – 59
    5. The White Lotus – 59K

    Maid being the only show be to top 5 on both is interesting.

    Yes, precisely, those are the things I was looking for, the 3 shows that have both things are:

    1. Maid
    2. Dopesick
    3. 1883

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