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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 13)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1205002595

    Good point, yes, A year without passion for the line up, so this is why asked are we underestimating the two shows that do have passion – The Offer and 1883? Especially, when the latter also have the viewership.

    I think people are free to make up their own mind on those two. I don’t think there’s a clear answer.

    A lot of people are very wary of predicting Paramount+ and/or Taylor Sheridan shows because they don’t think their audience aligns with voters, which is valid, I just personally find the guild support enough and I feel like Paramount+ seems to have grown quite a bit this year so I’m happy to take the risk.

    I am in the minority, I have 1883 in series (sixth) with no acting nominations (I’m also fairly sure I am one of the  few people here who has watched part of it, I think crafts will help it a lot) and I’m yet to watch The Offer but I have heard Goode is the standout so I have him in too – it was critically panned and normally that prevents a series nomination, but a single supporting actor seems reasonable.

     

     

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    Heptapod
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    #1205002700

    Interesting note: No show has won Limited Series without a WGA nomination since Fargo. This is enough for me to think Dopesick won’t win.

    Interestingly enough, every Limited Series winner since Fargo has also won at WGA (Watchmen was obviously a unique scenario, but it still won New Series). Granted, four of those seven series were spring shows that won the Emmy before the WGA copy pasted, Olive Kitteridge and The Queen’s Gambit being the only true exceptions.

    Trends are broken all the time, and it’s hard to say Maid has the upper hand on The White Lotus when they were competing in different categories, but this does bode quite well for Maid’s chances.

    Ultimately though, The White Lotus seems so far ahead for Directing, and the correlation between that award and Series (in the absence of a significant vote split) is too strong to ignore.

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    Heptapod
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    #1205002709

    Also, Midnight Mass has quietly been performing fairly well. Granted, hitting a WGA field that also included AHS: Double Feature and Them isn’t exactly impressive, but it got TCA and multiple nods at CC, which is more than Hill House ever did. Between the wins for Black Mirror, multiple nods for WandaVision, and recognition for American Vandal and Twin Peaks, the writers have shown themselves to be very open to weirder more genre stuff in this category. Going to quietly slip it into my writing predictions.

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    wolfali
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    #1205002810

    I still am unsure about Midnight Mass. It definitely has the visibility at least on the virtue of it being on Netflix and it has the critical support but I also just feel like it’s the annual under the radar critical pick that has a shot at a writing nomination but ends up missing out due to voters going all out for the top series contenders. Both It’s a Sin and The Plot Against America were critically buzzed about HBO series from Emmy nominated writers with socially relevant subject matters that got TCA nominations, multiple Critics Choice nominations and in The Plot Against America‘s case a WGA nod (although considering what got nominated at WGA last year I think it’s fair to assume that It’s a Sin probably would have gotten a WGA nod too if it was eligible there). And both shows ended up missing out in favour of bigger series contenders (The Plot Against America did miss out for a non series nominee in Normal People but considering that show got acting, casting, writing and directing nominations and went onto getting into PGA it was probably a close 6th in that category).

    There is more passion for Midnight Mass‘ writing than there is for say The Dropout (which had writing that was criticised by a lot of critics as being uneven), The Staircase (whose back half of episodes were polarising) and Under the Banner of Heaven (which had a mild initial critical reception) but the critical support for each of these shows still doesn’t feel like they’re any less than that behind Midnight Mass which makes it harder for me to predict a lone writing nod in this category.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205002823

    Interesting note: No show has won Limited Series without a WGA nomination since Fargo. This is enough for me to think Dopesick won’t win.

    Yes, but Fargo wasn’t so long ago, also Dopesick won the USC Scripter Award for the episode The People vs. Purdue Pharma versus Maid for Dollar Store and Station Eleven for Wheel of Fire.

    The performance on the Guilds for the winter contenders was strange and uneven, only White Lotus made it into all 4 guilds:

    Maid:

    Sag – 1 nom for Margaret Qualley
    WGA – 1 win for Adapted Long Form
    DGA – No
    PGA – No

    Dopesick:

    SAG – 1 win for Michael Keaton
    WGA – No
    DGA – 2 noms for The People vs. Purdue Pharma (Danny Strong) and for First Bottle (Barry Levinson)
    PGA – 1 nom for Limited or Anthology Series

    White Lotus:

    SAG – 2 noms for Jennifer Coolidge and for Murray Bartlett
    WGA – 1 nom for Original Long Form
    DGA – 1 nom for Mysterious Monkeys (Mike White) in Comedy
    PGA – 1 nom for Limited or Anthology Series

    1883:
    SAG – No
    WGA – 1 nom for Episodic Drama for the first episode called “1883”.
    DGA – No
    PGA – No

    Station Eleven:
    SAG – No
    WGA – No
    DGA – 1 nom for Wheel of Fire (Hiro Murai)
    PGA – No

    Scenes from a Marriage:
    SAG – 1 nom for Oscar Isaac
    WGA – No
    DGA – No
    PGA – No

    Midnight Mass:
    SAG – No
    WGA – 1 nom for Original Long Form
    DGA – No
    PGA – No

    *American Horror Story: Double Featured got a WGA nom for Original Long Form, while American Crime Story: Impeachment got one for Adapted Long Form.

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    estrelas
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    #1205002840

    Interesting note: No show has won Limited Series without a WGA nomination since Fargo. This is enough for me to think Dopesick won’t win. Interestingly enough, every Limited Series winner since Fargo has also won at WGA (Watchmen was obviously a unique scenario, but it still won New Series). Granted, four of those seven series were spring shows that won the Emmy before the WGA copy pasted, Olive Kitteridge and The Queen’s Gambit being the only true exceptions. Trends are broken all the time, and it’s hard to say Maid has the upper hand on The White Lotus when they were competing in different categories, but this does bode quite well for Maid’s chances. Ultimately though, The White Lotus seems so far ahead for Directing, and the correlation between that award and Series (in the absence of a significant vote split) is too strong to ignore.

    Is it really though? I don’t see any reason to believe it is, other than it’ll be competing with the full show.

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    probablyROB
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    #1205002877

    Station Eleven:
    SAG – No
    WGA – No
    DGA – 1 nom for Wheel of Fire (Hiro Murai)
    PGA – No

    Everything I said about Yellowjackets winter awards in the drama thread goes doubly for Station Eleven. They aired the first episodes on December 16th and finished airing on January 13th. Pretty much during the voting period of most of the guilds. The directing nomination is fucking incredible when you think about it.

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    Atypical
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    #1205002923

    Trends are made to be broken all the time. “Dopesick” is still the Limited Series frontrunner despite the WGA stumble, and Mike White can still easily win Writing despite losing WGA. The only thing I’m concerned with now is nominations tallies. That will instantly show where the heat is with voters’ minds and what they actually watched so far.

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    gabspss
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    #1205002944

    I couldn’t care less about this WGA trend, I’m sorry. So it’s been going on since Fargo? That wasn’t even 10 years ago so it’s nothing but a coincidence. We have to look at the whole scope of the things, especially considering all 3 major miniseries this year flopped at the winter awards in someway. CODA this year broke some absolutely major stats I actually did believe in (the Editing one, per example), so after that I’m caring less and less about these trends.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    forwardswill
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    #1205002951

    That wasn’t even 10 years ago so it’s nothing but a coincidence

    Not that I agree with the notion of ruling out Dopesick, but this statement is a load of nonsense. The current Emmy system is only 7 years old so any trends that cover this period absolutely deserve drawing attention to. That’s looking at the whole scope of things. The stat may have been brought up too forcefully but it’s certainly not something to be dismissed as just a coincidence.

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    wolfali
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    #1205002964

    If I’m not mistaken both long form categories at WGA are panelled so I’m not really looking into Dopesick missing there too much (especially considering it went on to win the Scripter over Maid and really only peaked in buzz later in the winter awards cycle).

    However just like Maid missing out at PGA tells me that its passion might not be as widespread as its audience scores would lead one to believe and The White Lotus getting in everywhere but only winning a guild award for its score tells me that it might be more respected than it is loved, I think Dopesick‘s miss at tells me that there might not be too much passion for its writing. Or at least much as there is for its performances and how its put together as a show (i.e. its direction and editing).

    Ultimately I think any of the predictions centre top 3 can win series but I do feel like they’re lacking in the consensus we’ve seen with previous winners here in some form or another. Nominations morning will probably clear things up.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1205003009

    and The White Lotus getting in everywhere but only winning a guild award for its score tells me that it might be more respected than it is loved

    Not really because:

    Lost DGA to Hacks (Different genre at the Emmys)
    Lost WGA to Mare of Easttown (not a rival this time around)
    Lost PGA to Mare of Easttown (not a rival this time around)
    Lost SAG actor to Dopesick – Michael Keaton (not a rival this time around due to different category placement)
    Lost SAG actress to Mare of Easttown – Kate Winslet (not a rival this time around)

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    probablyROB
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    #1205003029

    Coolidge and Bartlett feel like the best bets for The White Lotus to win at the Emmys. But I see it being their only wins as of right now. I genuinely didn’t and still don’t see that much love for Mike White. Maybe that’s my bubble.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1205003075

    Not predicting it anywhere right now but I still think Impeachment could pull surprise nominations and even a Series nom like it did at the Globes. Voters still gravitate towards Ryan Murphy and it’s a known brand that could benefit from the spring shows having little to no passion.

    It might have been discovered by more people since it got added on Hulu aswell. It wasn’t the only reason for its bad performance at winter awards, but I think it’s important to be reminded that it had 0 streaming presence in fall and that could have had some impact.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1205003092

    I’d also throw in Owen & Falco in addition to Paulson. The former being the omnipresent villain of the series and the latter having the biggest character showcase episode of the season (and the fact she only misses when she’s in absolute trash {Tommy} or completely underseen {Horace and Pete}).

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