July 10, 2022 at 10:03 am #1205008133
Did 1883 even make a single guild in the fall.
1883 got a WGA nom for it’s pilot and would have been too late for most guilds, it ran Dec – February.
I can actually see 1883 in and Yellowstone being blanked. The historical drama of it all might have a bit more broad appeal a bit like Deadwood and it’s significantly more crafts heavy than most of what it’s competing against (I am pretty sure there are also quite a few similar names BTL, though Bryant for costumes is the only one who comes to mind at the moment). I have it in as a series nom largely pulled through by crafts and writers.July 10, 2022 at 10:19 am #1205008137
1. Margaret Qualley – Maid. Still think she’s our frontrunner for the nomination at least due to the visibility we know Maid has and the acclaim and industry support we have already seen for the performance.
2. Amanda Seyfried – A lot of praise, a lot of bait. Small possibility that voters haven’t actually seen The Dropout I suppose but with this field I’d bet they’d still vote for her.
3. Jessica Chastain – Not safe at all which is crazy for a ranking this high. She just won an Oscar and that carry over has happened frequently in recent years. Isaac got in at SAG so we know the industry has seen it, which in this race, could just be enough.
4. Julia Garner – Emmy voters love her and almost everyone watched the show. Could be too crappy to make it in? Am already a broken record but it’s hard to justify not predicting her in a field so scattered. Voters will have to have disliked it, which is of course still possible.
5. Toni Collette – Very unsettled by this prediction as it’s a supporting performance right from the off. But she’s a big name, doing good work and it’s a show I think voters will have bothered to tune into.
6. Lily James – Just clinging on (and mostly because I still have at 100/1 odds). The show was watched, it’s a big, baity performance and she’s a rising star. BUT her ballot placement is not favourable and I’m not sure she is yet enough of a name for voters who maybe watched the odd episode a couple of months ago to seek her out.
7. Renee Zellweger – I so want to do this but I’m not brave enough. Right at the top of the ballot, and thanks to being on network we know she had millions watching. But were they Emmy voters? Hard to justify whilst not predicting something like Ghosts over in Comedy. She’s also not the kind of industry name that has ever been name checked for anything.
8. Viola Davis – I really think people on this site don’t understand how close she is. She’s one of the most beloved actors in the entire industry and pretty much the only diverse contender in the field. The fact that nobody has watched the show probably helps her! Imagine being a voter who doesn’t read reviews or follow twitter and be filling out your ballot. You’ve only done 4 so far but you want to at least find one more. You see “Viola Davis as Michelle Obama”. You vote for her. Honestly, I may be talking myself into putting her in at #6. All that’s stopping me is the assumption that some of the vitriol will have reached people’s ears.
9. Anne Hathaway – Apparently a great performance so if the show is watched it makes sense.
10. Julia Roberts – The same as Hathaway but with greater doubt over how many have actually seen it.
11. Gillian Anderson – Coming of an Emmy win Name check potential and right at the top of the ballot. Similar situation to Davis where lack of visibility may help her. Despite her reviews being as bad, she didn’t get nearly as much negative attention so even voters with an online presence may not know she wasn’t any good. Don’t think she quite has the appeal that Davis does to be able to transcend the show, however.
12. Michelle Pfeiffer – If you think she gets in, you think they watched it. Personally, I don’t think they will have done which is why I have her lower than the other two who are bigger industry names of recent years.
13. Claire Foy – Last year’s win showed there’s affection for her. I just wish Amazon had pushed the series because it’s had such a lacking campaign and impact. Similarity to A Very English Scandal helps if voters remember that. Would display her stature if she can get in.
14. Sarah Paulson – Repeat the comments I made about the show plus she got in the last time this category was barren so we know she’s someone they turn to. Critical reception probably hinders and she’s in the middle of the ballot.
15. Isabel May – Would be remiss of me to predict 1883 in series and not consider her here but I don’t see it.
16. Jessica Biel – Show was a small hit. If it comes down to visibility, it may be enough.
17. Olivia Colman – Potential namecheck but HBO fucked her with the lack of push.July 10, 2022 at 10:36 am #1205008145
I disagree that it’s lacking buzz. There have been a bunch of posts on /r/television that have made it to the top of HOT in the past couple of weeks. There’s also a lot of content being released and watched criticizing the Mormon church right now and sparking interest in people who have been unfamiliar with it. I’ve seen more talk about it online than The Offer or 1883. 1883 may have high ratings but I have no seen any industry buzz. The people watching it out in the midwest and inflating their viewing numbers aren’t Emmy voters.
It hasn’t released yet in most parts of Europe and Latin America. Canada, Australia, New Zealand just got it last month as well. I think that plays an important role in how the buzz around it has been perceived here and elsewhere, and why it has been somewhat underestimated. For example, The Staircase has significantly more logged ratings on IMDb than UTBOH but the latter jumps ahead when you filter out the non-US ones. The Krakuer book, not even the show, was a bigger search topic in the US this year than something like The Dropout according to Google Trends. It’s not a sure thing but I think the show has the potential to do well on Tuesday.July 10, 2022 at 10:48 am #1205008150
1. Michael Keaton – Thank you for being locked.
2. Colin Firth – Big name star of a digestible show that seems to have been watched.
3. Andrew Garfield – In the most buzzed year of his career. Only doubt is if voters have watched or, given its reported length and pacing, enjoyed.
4. Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) – SAG nommed which is surely dynamite in a year like this. The show never really had buzz though so I feel like we’d all just shrug if he did miss.
5. Sam Elliot – Big industry vet in a show with a big audience. I don’t think his controversial comments earlier this year are a factor. Only misses if there is not demographic crossover between voters and the audience.
6. Sebastian Stan – Similar to Lily James but with the additional challenge of ‘Slap the Stud’. If I believed in any of the other contenders I wouldn’t be predicting him.
7. Samuel L. Jackson – Seems like the most likely contender for name checking based on those available.
8. Jared Leto – After 2 recent SAG noms, the industry does seem to have a gross infatuation with him. Apple is pushing so can’t rule out.
9. Oscar Isaac (Moon Knight) – They have turned to these kind of shows the past two years when the field across the board has been weak. They may still do so with these limited categories. Feel like they’d check him off for Scenes from a Marriage instead though.
10. Ben Foster – Don’t think TV Movie performances are really a thing anymore but it’s very acclaimed work.
11. Miles Teller – If the series breaks through.
12. Himesh Patel – Same.
13. Paul Bettany – Nominated last year but I don’t think that suddenly makes him an Emmy favourite. As with Foy, Amazon dropped the ball here.
13. Liev Schreiber – The kind of WTF I am expecting.July 10, 2022 at 11:14 am #1205008170
LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Coolidge – We riot if she’s snubbed.
2. Kaitlyn Dever – Second biggest performance in a series frontrunner.
3. Connie Britton – The instability starts here. But she is a 4x nominee, early on in the ballot and in one of the assumed frontrunners.
4. Alexandra Daddario – Many people’s favourite performance on TWL so there’s no reason why that wouldn’t be the same among the Emmy pool. Less of a name but has the biggest role.
5. Anika Noni Rose – Given the mess of the category, I must admit that my own personal opinions have infiltrated with this one choice. I just don’t understand how a voter could watch Maid, enjoy it and not nominate her. Feels like this year’s example where the industry supporting favourite from a show is different to the one the pundits want them to go for.
6. Andie Macdowell – Speaking of, I really feel her snub potential. She’s well-known for sure but she’s not exactly a prestigious performer. Maid’s secure status has me keeping her in.
7. Edie Falco – This last slot feels near impossible so I’m going out on a limb for this being where the Ryan Murphy magic manifests. Falco is also ripe for namechecking, something which is only added to by her playing Hillary Clinton. My gut tells me it’s wrong but I can’t be swayed to anyone else so here we are.
8. Laurie Metcalf – Pretty beloved and in a show that is on their radar even if they haven’t all watched it yet. Mostly just resisting because I have her getting in for Hacks and I don’t see her coasting to two Emmy nominations.
9. Rosario Dawson – If Dopesick really is our leader, it is most likely to benefit from the unlimited ballot. Dawson just doesn’t seem like an Emmy nominee to me though given her career choices thus far. This kind of split field tends to favour character actors which just doesn’t really apply.
10. Juliette Binoche – I always worry about performances that really come alive in the latter half of a season because voters have a habit of missing them off. She’s a name though in a potential series nominee so that might be enough anyway.
11. Sydney Sweeney – Breakthrough year and the first White Lotus contender on the ballot for half of voters. Performance didn’t attract a lot of individual attention though and given that we know voters have watched, it could be a stretch too far for them to start voting for portrayals they didn’t overly care about by people they don’t know much else about.
12. Natasha Rothwell – She’s in a series I’m expecting to do well so can’t count her out. I don’t really buy the whole “she shares most of her scenes with Coolidge” thing though. More interesting to me is the argument that she’s the one person in the show who never does anything bad. But doesn’t that also make her less memorable?
13. Anna Chlumsky – Previous Emmy nominee and actual lead of a well watched show. Too trashy to nominate I assume.
14. Juno Temple – Ted Lasso love carries over idk?
15. Mare Winningham – Veteran finally gets her due? Really clutching at straws nowJuly 10, 2022 at 11:40 am #1205008182
I know I’ve been quite bullish about her missing, for obvious reasons, but I’m actually starting to question Viola. The category is too white idk. And like some people have said, no one really watched the show, which makes her a perfect candidate to get namechecked. It’s so weird cause I’ve been saying no way she’s happening, especially after watching the show, but idk. It’s not like they haven’t nominated atrocious performances before. And she is Viola, at the end of the day. Maybe it’s last minute panicking. (Forwardswill essay also helped me having second thoughts 😂🤭)July 10, 2022 at 12:05 pm #1205008205
I know I’ve been quite bullish about her missing, for obvious reasons, but I’m actually starting to question Viola. The category is too white idk. And like some people have said, no one really watched the show, which makes her a perfect candidate to get namechecked. It’s so weird cause I’ve been saying no way she’s happening, especially after watching the show, but idk. It’s not like they haven’t nominated atrocious performances before. And she is Viola, at the end of the day. Maybe it’s last minute panicking. (Forwardswill essay also helped me having second thoughts )
Viola is a big possibility as a name check (Most who watched the show didn’t like her) but I believe those who haven’t seen it at least have heard about how criticize her portrayal has been. There’s no way someone could miss thatJuly 10, 2022 at 12:22 pm #1205008226
Viola is a big possibility as a name check (Most who watched the show didn’t like her) but I believe those who haven’t seen it at least have heard about how criticize her portrayal has been. There’s no way someone could miss that
And those are all arguments I’ve been using. But her status in the Industry and the fact the category is looking to be all white are making me question it. I don’t think I will predict her tho.July 10, 2022 at 12:29 pm #1205008234
The backlash to Viola Davis and Lipsgate was so severe in that premiere week, but Emmy voters might not have paid any attention to social media whatsoever. She could easily be a name-check, and will they really want the optics an all-white lead actress lineup? She’s the only POC contender in GD’s top 25, and after that, it’s slim pickings otherwise. Cynthia Erivo? Wunmi Mosaku? Adrienne Warren? Rosario Dawson? No. Looks like I might have to rethink this category some before Tuesday.July 10, 2022 at 12:36 pm #1205008240
I just finished UTBOH, and I think people are grossly under-predicting it. The fact that it came out right before the deadline gives it a lot of recency, and on top of that (I’m saying this as someone who lives in the US), it’s very relevant in terms of the political division that’s going on in the United States right now. There were a lot of things within it that I thought connected very deeply to everything going on with the idea of church vs. state and extremism in the US right now. And although the episodes are long and slow-burn (7 episodes that span over about 4 days), they’re super eerie and intriguing and frankly the most terrifying things I’ve watched in a while. Plus, it stirred up its fair share of buzz with its criticisms of and from Mormonism. Also, Garfield is phenomenal in it, Edgar-Jones is great, Wyatt Russell is terrific, and Gil Birmingham is somehow completely out of the conversation despite being excellent. The production values were frankly fantastic imo, and I think many people who have seen it would definitely check it off for nominations.Not now
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