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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 4)

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    Victor
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    #1204545484

    Queen Elizabeth II and Queen Elizabeth II fighting for the nod/win


    It's all about Ethan Hawke!

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    Victor
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    wolfali
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    #1204546087

    Limited/Movie Actress

    (Assuming the The First Lady actors go supporting and that The English, Love and Death, and The Dropout miss eligibility).

    1. Margaret Qualley, Maid – With how strong Maid is looking as a contender right now (3rd on the Nielsen streaming charts!) she seems the likeliest from all the winter awards  to survive to the Emmys. There’s only so far a contender can fall from the winter awards so really her chances are ultimately going to depend on how high she places there and how much competition she has later on.

    2. Sienna Miller, Anatomy of a Scandal – The TV academy loves dramas that involve the unraveling of rich white people lol. Anatomy of a Scandal seems to be primed for a Spring slot on Netflix, has a commercially friendly plot behind it and is a David E. Kelley murder mystery starring Emmy nominated actors. Netflix will probably campaign for it regardless of how its received and it seems like something that will be watched regardless. At the moment I’m assuming it will be received decently and a top contender hence why I have Miller in second although of course David E. Kelley has been hit and miss in recent years so if it’s more miss that position in my predictions will change. I guess what I think might help Miller here is that she feels like she’s in a similar situation to Elizabeth Olsen. She’s been in the industry for a while and has delivered strong consistent performance in independent films but has never really had the opportunity to showcase her talents in a leading role in a show or film this high profile.

    3. Olivia Colman, Landscapers – She’s Olivia Colman. Judging by their recent history I’d say right now she seems like HBO’s strongest bet in this category from what we know right now. The late roll out is worrisome but it is also going to be airing as <i>The Lost Daughter</i> comes out which will give Olivia some visibility and honestly if the reviews are strong, the industry seems to be obsessed with Olivia so her name alone will probably bring visibility for Landscapers.

    4. Anna Chlumsky, Inventing Anna – Like Anatomy of a Scandal, Inventing Anna feels like a show that will perform quite well commercially and Netflix already seem to be doing a roll out for it in spite of it not coming out for a while so they do seem to have some confidence. I guess I have Chlumsky higher for now because voters have shown in recent years how they gravitate towards television actors who they’ve previously nominated and given wins to when they do something new and different (Oh for Killing Eve, Applegate for Dead to Me and more!) Chlumsky is ultimately a comedy actress who is going to be in a prestige drama and she’s been nominated 6 times and hasn’t won yet so I can see a narrative develop. Helps she’s going to be on the first half of the ballot alphabetically too.

    5. Claire Foy, A Very British Scandal – She just showed us last year how she can win an Emmy for reading into a microphone for five minutes and now she’s got a juicy role in a show that won an acting Emmy the last time it was eligible. The entire limited/movie acting lineup probably won’t be all Netflix/HBO and with the early roll out (which does seem to have generated some hype) Amazon definitely seem to be quite confident in this one. A Very British Scandal doesn’t seem like something that will do well commercially but it ultimately is a period drama starring a two time Emmy winner and a film actor the television academy just nominated last year for a Marvel show so I do think there will be some industry interest behind it.

    6. Julia Garner, Inventing Anna – She’s a rising name who already has two Emmys and seems to have a role wildly different from her turn in Ozark (a show she’ll have double visibility from during voting). That being said this is looking to be a competitive field (and four out of five slots going to actors from Netflix seems a bit too much even though there are extenuating circumstances in this field) so if she isn’t undeniable I can see some voters opting for other contenders because they’re already nominating her for Ozark. However if she is win competitive it will be hard to pass her over.

    7. Lily James, Pam and Tommy – I feel so conflicted about this one because Pam and Tommy already has generated a lot of online hype (and for good reason, whomever did the makeup on that show already deserves to be considered for an Emmy) but so much feels unknown about it as a show. There’s something about James (perhaps her filmography) that makes me feel like she’s someone who will only get in if they’re win competitive.

    8. Sarah Lancashire, Julia – Casey Bloys declared that she’s coming lol. There seems to be a high profile cast in this one and there’s a Julia Child documentary that seems like a potential Oscar contender which could help raise the show’s profile. I really do hope Bloys is right. Lancashire deserves a similar international breakthrough to the one Colman got with The Night Manager/The Favourite. She’s fantastic.

    9. Alison Oliver, Conversations with FriendsNormal People took the world by storm and there seems to be a lot of pre-hype for this one that there wasn’t for Normal People. If it’s well received I think it has potential to be a huge contender.

    10. Jessica Chastain, Scenes From a Marriage – She should be a top contender on performance alone but ultimately I don’t know how well Scenes From a Marriage will perform at the guilds and whether she’ll get in at SAG or not which is already worrisome because we’re 8 months away from Emmy nominations and if it’s not sustaining momentum now, will it be able to in June?

    11. Beanie Feldstein, Impeachment : American Crime Story – Similar to Chastain I worry that the lack of buzz will hurt Feldstein. That being said she is delivering an acclaimed performance as Monica Lewinsky and it would be surprising if Feldstein wasn’t on the campaign trail. If voters are still watching the show, she can definitely happen.

    12. Sarah Paulson, Impeachment : American Crime Story – From what I hear she has more of a focus earlier on in the season (please correct me if I’m wrong) so if voters have seen the first half but not the second and are enjoying the show and her performance she could slip in. That being said she feels like the Nicole Kidman in The Undoing of this year.

    13. Renee Zellweger, The Thing About Pam – This is her first project off of her Oscar win and the character sounds INSANE but this is on NBC…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Tyler
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    #1204546142

    Not trying to throw shade but those feel very hopedicty, which is fine because there’s next to nothing to go off of. For starters I want Emmy recognition for Chlumsky so much but not a chance she’s above Garner playing the titular character who is farrrrrr more baity. I’m hoping they’re in different categories otherwise its gone be tough because Julia is far more likely than Anna if they’re in the same boat.

    I also don’t totally buy why sight unseen, no evidence, Sienna Miller would be at two when Netflix is very good at producing shows that make no noise and also she’s not Olivia Colman, Julia Garner, or Claire Foy.

    Also, some of The First Ladies are going lead. Theres not a chance they are throwing that entire cast in supporting. Viola for sure and at least one/probably both of Michelle and Gillian too.

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    wolfali
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    #1204546161

    but not a chance she’s above Garner playing the titular character who is farrrrrr more baity.

    I also don’t totally buy why sight unseen, no evidence, Sienna Miller would be at two when Netflix is very good at producing shows that make no noise and also she’s not Olivia Colman, Julia Garner, or Claire Foy.

    Also, some of The First Ladies are going lead. Theres not a chance they are throwing that entire cast in supporting.

    It’s October.

    I’ve explained why I have Garner, Chlumsky and Miller in their positions in my original post so we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

    I do agree with you that it seems likely one of The First Lady actors will go lead but the show also seems to be an episodic anthology (each actor seems to be in three episodes each) and those types of shows have shown so much category confusion over the years (everyone from Small Axe went supporting, the Modern Love actors were lead, supporting and guest) so I have them all in supporting until we get confirmation over who is lead and who isn’t so having a fun go at early predicting doesn’t end up being a tiresome endeavour. They could all go supporting, they could all go lead or there could be a mix of both. Neither your or I know and it’s honestly a waste of time to stress over it.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204546180

    I’ve explained why I have Garner, Chlumsky and Miller in their positions in my original post so we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

    I completely see your logic on the type of show (largely agree there) but I don’t see the comparison between Miller and Olsen at all.

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    wolfali
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    #1204546199

    I completely see your logic on the type of show (largely agree there) but I don’t see the comparison between Miller and Olsen at all.

    It’s not necessarily a comparison of awards chances but more of the view of both performers in the mainstream. Sienna Miller just like Elizabeth Olsen feels like someone that critics and those on forum’s like these are probably aware of their work as prestigious thespians in independent cinema but they haven’t really gotten to showcase that on a mainstream scale as of yet. They’re both “known” (Olsen obviously more so than Miller) but are by no means household names.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that I can see there being a shock factor with Miller in Anatomy of a Scandal not necessarily because of her filmography as an actress but because I don’t think she’s ever had a showcase in a show this big before. I have her second right now (for the nomination) for both that reason and on the assumption that if it’s good that Anatomy of a Scandal will be a big contender and as we saw last year with Grant getting in over Hawke and Hamilton over-performing and Small Axe under-performing – visibility is key under this Emmy voting system.

    I hope I’ve answered your query (I’ve just more or less jotted my thoughts down, perhaps not in a strong structure).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    rlk
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    #1204546228

    Limited/Movie Actress

    2. Sienna Miller, Anatomy of a Scandal

    Any reason you did not include Michelle Dockery as well?

    Also, is Chlumsky a (somewhat) confirmed co-lead with Garner? Or is that just conjecture?

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    wolfali
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    #1204546242

    Any reason you did not include Michelle Dockery as well? Also, is Chlumsky a (somewhat) confirmed co-lead with Garner? Or is that just conjecture?

    Dockery is very borderline in the book. I don’t think Netflix will run 5 limited/movie actress campaigns so I think they’ll push her in supporting like they did with Toni Collette for Unbelievable.

    I have Chlumsky in lead because she is quite prominent in the latest log-line Netflix have released for the show  (in fact she leads the log-line).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Couverture
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    #1204546362

    According to Nielsen, Maid had 850 million minutes viewed in its first three days. That’s a great number. The Queen’s Gambit had 551 MMW for comparison. Even accounting for their length, Maid still easily comes out on top. All in all, in line with Netflix’s claims.

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    Manav
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    #1204546376

    According to Nielsen, Maid had 850 million minutes viewed in its first three days. That’s a great number. The Queen’s Gambit had 551 MMW for comparison. Even accounting for their length, Maid still easily comes out on top. All in all, in line with Netflix’s claims.

    Bodes really well for Margaret Qualley.

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    Jojo1
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    #1204546385

    According to Nielsen, Maid had 850 million minutes viewed in its first three days. That’s a great number. The Queen’s Gambit had 551 MMW for comparison. Even accounting for their length, Maid still easily comes out on top. All in all, in line with Netflix’s claims.

    Interesting because TQG felt more like a pop culture phenomenon than Maid did.

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    Luca
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    #1204546403

    I really, really do not understand assuming that the three First Ladies are going supporting. Anderson, Davis and Pfeiffer are leading this show. There are way too many supporting players to put the three FL in supporting. It’s not gonna happen.

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    rlk
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    #1204546418

    I really, really do not understand assuming that the three First Ladies are going supporting. Anderson, Davis and Pfeiffer are leading this show. There are way too many supporting players to put the three FL in supporting. It’s not gonna happen.

    I have been thinking the same thing. Ellen Burstyn and Lily Rabe seem like viable Supporting Actress nominees for TFL.

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    Manav
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    #1204546420

    Does Maid have the same audience word of mouth and excitement as The Queen’s Gambit, WandaVision and Mare Of Easttown had? Like the way friends/families used to come together to discuss/ recommend. It isn’t the case in my locality regarding Maid (it was regarding Squid Game and all the above 3 shows) but wanted to ask your all’s observations regarding that.

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