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Emmys 2022 Predictions: Movie/Limited Categories (Part 7)

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204828391

    I think one of my feelings (which is a little hard to articulate specifically) is you can kind of feel the pandemic in this years limited contenders even if you can’t explicitly see it.

    Most things seem (or are reviewed) as being well cast (often a little too well cast) but bloated (like the commercial realities of the streaming service hours watched kicked in) full of two handers, and the sort of things that can be shot relatively quickly and safely.

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    Babygirl
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    #1204828510

    Ooooh bitch the Emmy is hers me thinks

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204828523

    Seyfried after the first take

    AndersonEmmys

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    agorretta
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    #1204828639

    Does this mean The White Lotus officially has to move to either comedy or drama?

    Jennifer Coolidge to Lead ‘The White Lotus’ Season 2, As HBO Confirms Production in Sicily

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204828663

    Does this mean The White Lotus officially has to move to either comedy or drama? Jennifer Coolidge to Lead ‘The White Lotus’ Season 2, As HBO Confirms Production in Sicily

    think so.  The rule is:

    Limited Series is defined as a program with two (2) or more episodes with a total running time of at least 150 program minutes that tells a complete, non-recurring story.The story arc must be completely resolved within its season, with noon-going storyline and/or main characters in subsequent seasons.
    Subsequent seasons of a Limited Series must cover completely new ground, requiring no knowledge of the events of the previous season.

    There used to be loopholes for this so shows like The Sinner and Top of The Lake were technically eligible if you could consume the season independently despite having a carry-over character (which is very likely to be the case for this) – if I recall one was you could get around it if you ran it over three days max – but I think they’ve been removed.

    That said, this is really a year of people using obscure clauses to make eligibility (ie with split seasons) so maybe I am missing something.

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    wolfali
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    #1204828780

    Some overall thoughts for debate:

    • Is Dockery really going lead for AoaS? Given she’s been nominated before I would say she’s more likely, but Miller seems the more likely pick since she’s top-billing; it would also give Dockery a major chance in supporting.
    • Of the First Lady nominees, Gillian Anderson probably has more of a chance than Pfeiffer. She’s already a major Emmy veteran coming off of her major success with The Crown, and unlike Pfeiffer she’s playing a Democrat, which we all know is going to turn heads.
    • I think it would be remiss to completely discount Moon Knight. Assuming it’s good, Disney+ is going to push that series HARD as their only viable option, so Oscar Isaac probably has a fair chance at being nominated, even more so than Scenes of a Marriage which I think is pretty much dead now.
    • For The Staircase, I could see that as being HBO Max’s big push. That said, I think Firth is the most likely nominee. Binoche is also likely especially given her industry cred, but I don’t see Collette getting in due to the fact that the whole premise revolves around her being dead. Maybe Rosemarie DeWitt instead?
    • If Margaret Qualley is getting in, she’ll probably bring in votes for Maid in general, especially if it’s Netflix’s primary series this season. So I’m holding out hope for Nick Robinson and Andie MacDowell, though right now I think MacDowell is more likely.
    • For Pam & Tommy, I don’t see Stan getting in without Lily James. James is getting way more praise that Stan is; her main issue is the stacked competition, but with Pam & Tommy’s popularity that shouldn’t be an issue.
    • I don’t see The White Lotus and Dopesick doubling up in the supporting actress category. Britton and Dawson are getting nowhere near the amount of praise that Coolidge and Dever are. Given that Dopesick’s the frontrunner to win Limited Series though, I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if Dawson snuck in.
    • Not much to say on supporting actor, but I do think it’s bold to say that Stuhlbarg is getting two nominations in this category (in face, I’m not even sure he’ll get one considering Sarsgaard).

    Hi! Thank you for posting this (I really do appreciate friendly debates on awards discussions!) and I apologise for responding so late. I’ll preface with regards to a lot of your queries on where certain contenders are in my predictions as my next in lines (Lily James is in 7th for me) so I’m not counting them out here haha.

    • Dockery is in lead in the predictions centre for Anatomy of a Scandal which is what I’m going off on right now. Her character is a co-lead to Miller’s in the source material (although having read it I’d also say there’s an argument to be made that Friend’s character is also a lead) although depending on how the series is adapted I can see Netflix putting her in supporting like with Toni Collette for Unbelievable considering how much Miller’s character is at the crux of the story, even if her character may not be the only prominent one here.
    • I do agree Anderson can get in over Pfeiffer (the unlimited ballot helps her greatly) although the reasoning I have the latter over the former right now is because I’m assuming The First Lady is going to really appeal to a similar demographic in the academy to Mrs. America (older voters and female voters) and I can really see the Ford storyline appealing to those voters more than the Roosevelt one (of which I haven’t really sensed much excitement for).
    • Solid point about Collette! Binoche is playing the editor of The Staircase documentary who had a romantic relationship with the murder suspect so I have her in my predictions under the anticipation that there will be some baity material there (and also because as you’ve pointed out she has solid industry cred). Collette I have based more on her being second billed, marketed quite prominently for the show at TCA and being Collette so I assume she’s quite prominent in the storyline (perhaps there are a lot of intriguing flashbacks?). Definitely keeping an eye out on DeWitt though.
    • I haven’t really sensed James’ buzz being that much greater than (or standing on its own from) Stan’s for Pam and Tommy. The critical reviews have yes favoured James but the audience response seems to favour them equally and with Stan getting a potential boost in buzz from Fresh, I think this could be a rare case where you’ve got two performers attracting the same amount of votes (which is very possible under the unlimited ballot) and the competition decides whether they get in or not. Stan’s competition feels quite barren compared to James’ so I have him in now whilst I have her on the edge of her category.
    • I disagree about Dopesick and The White Lotus getting double nominations in supporting actress being too implausible. At the end of the day these categories are based on visibility rather than passion and both of those shows have the most visibility in this field right now. Dawson has a memorable episode and has been quite visible with the show’s campaigning (and is probably going to be on the same page of the ballot as Dever) and Britton is Britton so if the field remains in the state it has been these past few months I don’t think them coat-tailing to their shows is too implausible. Even if their shows end up being non-factors for the win.
    • Stuhlbarg is more or less filler in my predictions for The Staircase right now because most of the other contenders in the category are unseen and I feel quite bullish about him getting in for Dopesick (even more so than Sarsgaard because his role is baitier) so I can see the unlimited ballot helping him get checked off for both and him benefitting from the potential absence of stronger contenders.

    I hope those answered your queries and please feel free to let me know if you have any more! I’d be more than happy to discuss.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Jays
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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204829087

    Indeed! The show is well received too — 76 on MC and 85 on RT. Just needs to be a hit with audiences now too, but I think she can still win without it, as long as the industry watches, because it’s that baity of a role.

    Watching the pilot now. She’s great. I think I might move her to #1 if this holds up

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    Sab227
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    #1204829103

    Does this mean The White Lotus officially has to move to either comedy or drama?

    Jennifer Coolidge to Lead ‘The White Lotus’ Season 2, As HBO Confirms Production in Sicily

    Not necessarily. The article never said she was returning as her season one character so theres a chance she could be playing a new character. The show is an anthology series after all and most of the time previous cast return to play new characters

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204829108

    Not necessarily. The article never said she was returning as her season one character so theres a chance she could be playing a new character. The show is an anthology series after all and most of the time previous cast return to play new characters

    That’s true, though other less official sources have. That would be OK as far as I understand

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