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Feels Obvious To Me, Long Shot to Everyone Else (TV Winter Awards Edition)

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  • wolfali
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    #1203902275

    – Not predicting it but there is a real chance of The Crown ending up like Big Little Lies.

    Bold prediction!

    – There are no locks in the Supporting categories and GoldDerby is getting at least 3/5 from Supporting Actor wrong.

    I agree with supporting actor but I would say Gillian Anderson is fairly safe in supporting actress. Then again that’s just me.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203902287

    I would say Gillian Anderson is fairly safe in supporting actress.

    The only reason I would say she is not safe is because they could just go with Emma Corrin. Like how last year both Dern and Streep felt secure and they just picked one. I’d say it is locked that at least one of Corrin and Anderson is getting in.

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    wolfali
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    #1203902295

    The only reason I would say she is not safe is because they could just go with Emma Corrin. Like how last year both Dern and Streep felt secure and they just picked one. I’d say it is locked that at least one of Corrin and Anderson is getting in.

    Interesting.

    I guess it’s plausible that The Crown does end up like Big Little Lies s2 but I feel like it has more buzz and acclaim which would help it (and an emptier field with BLL didn’t have).

    Then again your insights are fascinating!

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1203902314

    Both Christina Applegate & Linda Cardellini getting in at GG feels obvious to me, even though, not a lot are predicting Linda in favor of Jane Levy, Lily Collins, Issa Rae, Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, to name a few.

    IIRC only The Morning Show has gotten double leads in within the past 5 years (non-limited). That was obviously a huge deal considering brand new service with huge megastars. Not even Succession or Killing Eve managed to get both performers in (despite doing so at the Emmys).

    Applegate is generally more liked by the HFPA (Sam Who win, Jessie nom) so she’s an easier pick just by herself than with Cardellini

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    forwardswill
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    #1203902318

    I think it’s because for me Big Little Lies started losing real momentum and buzz after it didn’t get as many nominations as assumed. Everyone else assumes it was before with the whole Andrea Arnold thing but I remember being on these forums last year and the buzz was still very much strong for the show until right before nominations.

    And, crucially, I’d argue that the misses it had at the Globes and SAG had nothing to do with it being short in the buzz department. At the Globes, Witherspoon was picked for another performance and Dern got squeaked out in a tough supporting category (likely aided by the fact that she was getting nominated elsewhere). At SAG, there is not a tick off as many as they want in each category like at the Emmys. Instead, they get up to five. So unless you were a BLL superfan and picked all of Streep, Kidman, Dern and Witherspoon then you likely only picked a couple at most. Given how everyone has different favourites from the show (in addition to the fact that Witherspoon was again competing with herself) it seems likely to me that the votes were split. This is why I can see The Crown following a similar line this year in spite of its buzz and the only reason I am not predicting it yet is because the competition is so weak.

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    Victor
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    #1203902324

    I can’t even comment because this year everything is and isn’t obvious.

    Bur I will say that Emily in Paris is quite the type of show that gets nominated at the Globes, not predicting at the moment because it will be bold af, but for me it really can.

    Also, The Undoing is not as strong as must people think it is.

    FYC:
    The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
    The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
    Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!

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    wolfali
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    #1203902337

    I think it’s because for me Big Little Lies started losing real momentum and buzz after it didn’t get as many nominations as assumed. Everyone else assumes it was before with the whole Andrea Arnold thing but I remember being on these forums last year and the buzz was still very much strong for the show until right before nominations. And, crucially, I’d argue that the misses it had at the Globes and SAG had nothing to do with it being short in the buzz department. At the Globes, Witherspoon was picked for another performance and Dern got squeaked out in a tough supporting category (likely aided by the fact that she was getting nominated elsewhere). At SAG, there is not a tick off as many as they want in each category like at the Emmys. Instead, they get up to five. So unless you were a BLL superfan and picked all of Streep, Kidman, Dern and Witherspoon then you likely only picked a couple at most. Given how everyone has different favourites from the show (in addition to the fact that Witherspoon was again competing with herself) it seems likely to me that the votes were split. This is why I can see The Crown following a similar line this year in spite of its buzz and the only reason I am not predicting it yet is because the competition is so weak.

    That is an instreresting hypothesis.

    Actually speaking of Dern for similar reasoning you’ve given I think Colman is vulnerable in the Actress at SAG (not at the Globes where she could very well repeat). If SAG are awarding her for The Father some voters may not feel the need to vote for her for <i>The Crown </i>and may give their votes to Bonham Carter or Comer/Oh instead. I guess she could end up like Emma Stone and Amy Adams did in 2019 and get nominated for both her projects (ironically both of those ladies got nominated in the same categories as each other) but something feels off about predicting that for Colman this year.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203902683

    I think Antony Starr is getting nominated at both GG and SAG but I don’t know who to remove for him at SAG

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1203902714

    I, too, have considered a BLL trajectory for The Crown at SAG. It would be a shame.

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    wolfali
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    #1203902830

    I think Antony Starr is getting nominated at both GG and SAG but I don’t know who to remove for him at SAG

    Who do you have?

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203902997

    Who do you have?

    Bateman, Brown, Rhys, Menzies and O’Connor. Maybe they snub Menzies? Idk.

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    wolfali
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    #1203903059

    Bateman, Brown, Rhys, Menzies and O’Connor. Maybe they snub Menzies? Idk.

    I’d take out Menzies although I am considering a possibility where he gets in at both SAG and the Globes (even though I have him in neither). The HFPA love him (he was nominated for both Outlander and The Crown) and they love The Crown and both The Crown and Ozark could seriously over-perform at SAG. I don’t have Pelphrey in but it wouldn’t surprise me if Actor ended up being Bateman-Brown-Menzies-O’Connor-Pelphrey.

    Although I do think Perry Mason will do better at the Emmys than a lot here like to admit.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    DylanMcPhee
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    #1203904581

    I thought the pedigree behind The Undoing was enough to carry it but has become a massively successful limited series and (from my perspective) the most buzzed about in its category from the general audiences. People of all ages and demos loved it. And the Globes love popularity. Plus Kidman and Grant were both terrific.

     

     

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1203927078

    In a year as abysmally empty as Drama Series is this year, so there no reason that two critically adored programs (The Boys and P-Valley) from two of the HFPAs favourite networks wouldn’t rack up multiple nominations at the Globes.

    With both their male leads being considered long shots (and underestimated) as well, found a comparison to the 2018 “surprises” that makes some sense.

    Antony Starr = Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
    —— A thriller based genre international streaming series than it gets because it’s a more populist program, along with its most acclaimed actor.

    Nicco Annan = Billy Porter (Pose)
    —— A critically acclaimed cable summer series whose gets quasi-supporting make in lead due them being the most prominent cast member of that gender.

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